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研究生： 宋柏勳
Bo-Syun Song
論文名稱： 西北太平洋區域颱風模式建立-以韓國為例
指導教授： 蔣偉寧
許文科
口試委員:
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 工學院 - 土木工程學系
Department of Civil Engineering
論文出版年： 2017
畢業學年度： 105
語文別： 中文
論文頁數： 79
中文關鍵詞： 巨災風險管理 、生成頻率 、路徑 、梯度風速 、風場
外文關鍵詞： Catastrophe Risk Management, Generation Frequency, Best Track, Gradient Wind Speed, Wind Field
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    • 天然巨災在所有災害中影響範圍最廣且破壞力最強，大致上包含地震、颱風、洪水、海嘯、土石流等，長年以來造成的損失從輕微的財產或產業損失，到嚴重的人民生命或者國家經濟的損失，如何運用巨災風險管理的概念來避免災害，或者減少災害的損失，已經逐漸成為重要的討論議題。
    天然巨災中，以颱風的影響範圍最廣，通常影響多個區域與國家，主要分為三大區域，西北太平洋區、北大西洋區、南太平洋區，造成的影響包含強風、降水、降水引發的土石流、山崩等，造成損失的包含農業損失、建築物損壞等。
    本研究即針對西北太平洋區域颱風所造成的風速作探討，利用巨災風險管理的概念，結合國內外相關颱風研究，例如颱風生成頻率、颱風移動路徑、颱風梯度風速等，發展一套完整的西北太平洋區域颱風模式，主要為建立影響韓國區域颱風的風場。

    Natural catastrophes are the most influential and destructive in all disasters, including earthquakes, typhoons, floods, tsunamis, and landslides, etc. Losses from minor property damage or industrial losses to serious people's lives or the loss of the national economy. How to use the concept of catastrophe risk management to avoid disasters, or reduce the loss of disasters, has gradually become an important issue to deal with.
    In the natural catastrophe, the influence of typhoon is the most extensive, usually affecting multiple regions and countries, mainly divided into three regions, the northwest Pacific region, the North Atlantic region, the South Pacific region. The impact includes strong winds, heavy rain, and landslides, etc., resulting in losses including agricultural losses and building damages.
    This study is aimed at typhoons in the northwest Pacific region. Based on the concept of catastrophe risk management, this thesis combines the domestic and foreign related typhoon research, such as typhoon generation frequency, typhoon best track, and typhoon gradient wind speed, to develop a complete northwest Pacific region typhoon model, mainly for the establishment of typhoon wind field in Korea.

    中文摘要 i Abstract ii 致謝 iii 主目錄 iv 圖目錄 vi 表目錄 ix 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究動機與目的 1 1.2 研究內容 4 1.3 颱風與巨災相關文獻回顧 5 1.3.1 颱風生成與消散 5 1.3.2 颱風路徑 6 1.3.3 颱風登陸衰減 7 1.3.4 最大風速半徑 8 1.3.5 颱風風速 8 1.3.6 巨災風險評估模型相關文獻 10 第二章 巨災風險評估模型 11 2.1 巨災風險管理 11 2.1.1 巨災 12 2.1.2 風險評估 12 2.1.3 風險管理 13 2.2 巨災風險評估模型架構 14 第三章 颱風事件模組 17 3.1 資料來源 17 3.2 模擬架構 22 3.3 颱風生成模型 23 3.3.1 時間分布(Temporal Distribution) 23 3.3.2 空間分布(Spatial Distribution) 25 3.4 颱風路徑模型 27 3.4.1 回歸方程式 28 3.4.2 登陸衰減式(Filling Model) 29 3.5 颱風消散模型 33 第四章 颱風危害度模組 35 4.1 梯度風模型 35 4.2 考慮不對稱性 40 4.3 表面風模型 41 4.4 土地覆蓋物與粗糙度 44 4.5 風速轉換 46 4.5.1 表面風 46 4.5.2 風速轉換 48 4.6 有效地表粗糙度 50 4.7 有效中尺度粗糙度 52 第五章 研究結果 55 5.1 颱風事件模組模擬結果 55 5.2 颱風危害度模組模擬結果 59 第六章 結論與未來方向 62 6.1 結論 62 6.2 未來方向 62 參考文獻 64

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