動態隨機一般均衡模型以個體最適化為基礎，對總體資料提供了完整的多變量隨機過程的分析。本篇以Smets and Wouters (2007)之模型衡量台灣總體經濟的景氣循環。模型以新興凱因斯學派為架構，同時包含Calvo (1983)家計單位的工資無法每期立即調整以及廠商訂定價格時存在僵固性。家計單位的效用函數中包含消費與勞動，消費中存在隨時間變動的外部習慣形成 (External habit variable)，其捕捉總體消費的持續性。最後模型中也額外加入7個隨機衝擊項企圖用以解釋景氣波動的來源。
　　結果發現台灣工資僵固平均大約為一年，價格僵固期間平均則高達兩年。而工資僵固期間也符合台灣企業以一年一聘之形式，契約到期後再調整工資之幅度。與其他文獻相比後，我們也發現台灣總體消費持續性是偏高的。

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are micro-founded optimization based models that provide a complete multivariate stochastic process representation for the data. This paper estimates the business cycle for Taiwan macroeconomics following Smets and Wouters (2007). DSGE builds on the New-Keynesian models. The model exhibits both sticky nominal prices and wages that adiust following Calvo (1983). Households utility function with two arguments (goods and labor). Consumption appears in the utility function relative to a time-varying external habit variable to capture the macro-consumption persistence. Finally, the model added seven structural shocks to explain the business cycles.
The results find the average duration of wages is almost one year; whereas the average duration of prices is about two years. The average duration of wages conform the Taiwan business wage contracts. Finally, we also find Taiwan macro-consumption have high persistence.

參考文獻
Adolfson, M. S., Laseen, J. L. and M. Villani (2007b) “Bayesian Estimation of an　Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through,” Journal of International Economics 72, 481–511.
An, S. and Frank S. (2006) “Bayesian Analysis of DSGE models”, Econometric Reviews, 26(2–4):113–172.
Calvo, G. (1983). “Staggered Prices in a Utility Maximizing Framework.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 12, pp. 383–398.
Christiano, L. J., Martin, E., and Charles L. E. (2005). “Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy.” Journal of Political Economy, 113(1): 1–45.
Florin, O. B. (2006) “Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium and　Business Cycles”, Lecture Notes, University of Oxford.
Fuhrer, J. (2000). “Optimal Monetary Policy in a Model with Habit Formation.”
American Economic Review, 90(3), pp. 367–390.
Gali, J. (1999). “Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?” American Economic Review, 89(1), pp. 249–271.
Gali, J., Mark G., and David L. S. (2001a). “European Inflation Dynamics.” European Economic Review, June 45(7), pp. 1121–1150.
Greenwood, J., Zvi H. and G. Huffman (1988). “Investment, Capacity Utilization and the Real Business Cycle.” American Economic Review, 78(3), pp. 402–417.
King, R. and S. Rebelo (2000). “Resuscitating Real Business Cycles.” NBER Working Paper 7534.
Kydland, F. E., and E. C. Prescott (1982). “Time to build and aggregate fluctuations”,　　Econometrica, 50: 1345-1370.
Koop, G. (2004) “Bayesian Econometrics”, the textbook, ISBN: 978-0-470-84567-7, Chapter 1&2.
Lubik, T. and F. Schorfheide (2005)“A Bayesian look at new open economy macroeconomics.” NBER Macroeconomics Annual 20, 313–366.
Lubik, T. and F. Schorfheide (2007) “Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation.” Journal of Monetary Economics 54, 1069-1087.
Lubik, T. and W. L. Teo (2005) “Do world shocks drive domestic business cycles? Some evidence from structural estimation.” Working Paper #522, Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University.
McCallum B. and E. Nelson (1999). “Nominal Income Targeting in an Open- Economy Optimizing Model.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 43, pp. 553–578.
Schorfheide, F. (2000) “Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 15(6), 645–670.
Smets, F. and R. Wouters (2003) “An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model for the Euro area” Journal of the Euro pean Economic Association 1(5), 1123-1175.
Smets, F. and R. Wouters (2004) “Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE model: An application to the Euro Area” Journal of Common Market Studies 42(4), 841-867.
Smets, F. and R. Wouters (2005) “Bayesian New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) models: Modern tools for central banks” Journal of the European Economic Association 3(2-3), 422-433.
Smets, F. and R. Wouters (2007) “Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach” American Economic Review, 97(3): 586–606.
Teo, W. L. (2009) “An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Taiwanese Economy” Pacific Economic Review 14(2), 194-231.
毛慶生與林依伶 “跨期替代彈性--台灣實證研究。”國立台灣大學經濟研究所，碩士論文，民國96年。
李秀雲與魏谷峰 “消費跨期替代彈性的估計-台灣消費時間序列資料的實證研究。” 國立中正大學國際經濟研究所，碩士論文，民國86年。
黃俞寧與陳宏鈞 “在動態隨機一般均衡模型下台灣消費習慣形成之估計。” 國立政治大學經濟研究所，碩士論文，民國97年。
劉原超、邴傑民與黃子芳“金融環境變遷下成功的銀行經營策略－以台灣花旗銀行為例。”大葉大學事業經營研究所碩士在職專班，碩士論文，民國93年。