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| 研究生： |
洪千惠 Chien-Hui Houng |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱： |
集集餘震風險之貝氏分析 |
| 指導教授： |
陳玉英
Yuh-Ing Chen |
| 口試委員: | |
| 學位類別： |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱： |
理學院 - 統計研究所 Graduate Institute of Statistics |
| 畢業學年度： | 92 |
| 語文別： | 中文 |
| 論文頁數： | 40 |
| 中文關鍵詞： | 集集餘震分析 |
| 外文關鍵詞： | Chi-Chi aftershocks analysis |
| 相關次數： | 點閱：6 下載：0 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
摘要
本文針對Reasenberg & Jones（1989）提出的餘震時間-規模風險模式（記作RJ模式），進行貝氏分析（Bayesian analysis）。根據台灣在西元1983年至1998年之間十筆完整記錄餘震序列，決定RJ模式中參數之均勻先驗分布（prior distribution）範圍，然後利用短期內收集的集集餘震序列，進行集集餘震風險之貝氏分析。因為後驗分布（posterior distribution）未能確知，本文以馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅方法（Markov Chain Monte Carlo method，簡稱MCMC）衍生近似之後驗分布進行貝氏分析。本文進一步利用空間格點法（spatial-grid method）在每一點格空間內進行RJ模式的貝氏分析，並且計算餘震發生之機率，評估即時集集餘震之空間風險。最後，以勝算比（odds ratio）評估機率性預警地區與未來餘震震央之關聯性（association）。
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參考文獻
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