日本地區最強地震圓弧交叉與後續強震之關聯 (2005~2014 年 )

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研究生：	劉興宸 Hsing-Chen Liu
論文名稱：	日本地區最強地震圓弧交叉與後續強震之關聯 (2005~2014 年 ) The strongest intersections of the circular arcs of earthquakes around Japan from 2005 to 2014
指導教授：	李顯智 Hin-Chi Lei
口試委員:
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	工學院 - 土木工程學系 Department of Civil Engineering
論文出版年：	2019
畢業學年度：	107
語文別：	中文
論文頁數：	147
中文關鍵詞：	地震圓弧交叉、日本地區
相關次數：	點閱：9 下載：0
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本研究利用最強地震圓弧交叉的概念，尋找出應力集中的區域，並試著預測後續發
生強烈大地震的時間和地點，資料來源為日本氣象廳所提供的，再選取 2005 到 2014 的
地震資料，製作成地震目錄。
開始時透過 MATLAB 觀察最小規模 6 以上之地震事件分布，並把觀察的地震事件的
最小規模逐步向下修正，直到找出兩條首先出現且形成交叉的地震弧，其中地震弧是由
五個或以上的地震事件，近似均勻排列所組合而成的，用此方法找出的地震弧交叉，我
們稱之為最強地震弧交叉，再以最強地震圓弧交叉點為中心半徑 70Km 和最小弧長的四
分之一兩個圓形範圍，去尋找後續發生的強烈地震事件來進行統計和分析。
利用地震圓弧來推測應力集中的區域，這樣的概念是來自於岩石中張力裂縫的分布
圖形，和壓力板塊下均勻排列的孔洞，對照統計的結果可以發現，最強地震圓弧交叉和
後續強烈地震之間有很強的關聯性。

This study uses the concept of strongest intersection of circular arcs of
earthquakes to find the area where the stress is concentrated, and attempts to
predict the time of occurrence and the place of the sequential strong earthquake.
The data source is provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the seismic
data from 2005 to 2014 which is selected to make into an earthquake catalog.
At the beginning, the distribution of seismic events with a minimum magnitude
of 6 or above is analyzed through MATLAB, and the minimum magnitude of the
observed earthquake events is decreased gradually until the two first occurrence
and intersecting circular arcs of earthquakes are found. Here the arc of
earthquakes is composed of five or more than five earthquake events which are
distributed approximately uniformly. The intersections found by this method are
called the strongest intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes. The circular
predicted region is defined by taking the intersection point as its center and
the radius can be 70Km or a quarter of the length of the shorter one between
the two arcs of the intersection. Inside the predicted region, we look for the
strong earthquakes occurred after the formation of the intersection. And the
strong events are analyzed by statistics.
The intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes is used to estimate the region of stress concentration. The concept is derived from the uniform
distribution pattern of tension cracks in the rock and the uniformly arranged
holes under in a pressure plate. According to the statistical results. The
relation between the strongest intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes and
the subsequent strong earthquakes is quite strong.

摘要 ···················································································································································   
英文摘要 ········································································································································· II 
目錄 ················································································································································ IV 
圖目錄 ··········································································································································· VII 
表目錄 ··········································································································································· XII 
一、 緒論 ····································································································································1 
1-1 研究背景與動機 ························································································································1 
1-2 研究內容 ···································································································································2 
二、 地震目錄與地震弧交叉介紹 ·····························································································4 
2-1 地震目錄組成 ····························································································································4 
2-2 地震弧圓弧資料範圍選取 ········································································································5 
2-3 最強地震圓弧與雙凸地震圓弧交叉之分析方法 ······································································6 
2-4 地震事件紀錄格式 ··················································································································11 
2-5 地震圓弧定義 ··························································································································12 
2-6 最強地震圓弧交叉與主雙凸地震圓弧交叉現象 ····································································16 
三、 最強地震弧與主雙凸交叉案例說明與分析 ····································································17 
 
3-1 2005 上半年 ·····························································································································17 
3-2 2005 下半年 ·····························································································································21 
3-3 2006 上半年 ·····························································································································25 
3-4 2006 下半年 ·····························································································································29 
3-5 2007 上半年 ·····························································································································33 
3-6 2007 下半年 ·····························································································································37 
3-7 2008 上半年 ·····························································································································40 
3-8 2008 下半年 ·····························································································································44 
3-9 2009 上半年 ·····························································································································47 
3-10 2009 下半年 ···························································································································52 
3-11 2010 上半年 ···························································································································56 
3-12 2010 下半年 ···························································································································58 
3-13 2011 上半年 ···························································································································60 
3-14 2011 下半年 ···························································································································64 
3-15 2012 上半年 ···························································································································67 
3-16 2012 下半年 ···························································································································71 
3-17 2013 上半年 ···························································································································73 
3-18 2013 下半年 ···························································································································76 
3-19 2014 上半年 ···························································································································78 

3-20 2014 下半年 ···························································································································80 
四、 地震圓弧交叉 DT 之統計與分析 ·····················································································83 
4-1 地震圓弧交叉之 DT··················································································································83 
4-2 最強地震弧中單交叉和雙交叉(採計兩點)之 DT 統計 ····························································84 
4-3 最強地震弧中單交叉和雙交叉(採計一點)之 DT 統計 ····························································90 
4-4 最強地震弧交叉中雙交叉(採計兩點)之 DT 統計 ····································································95 
4-5 最強地震弧交叉中雙交叉(採計兩點)之 DT 統計 ·································································· 100 
五、    結論與未來方向    105
參考文獻    108
附錄一    110
附錄二    114


                                

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