對市電應用的風能資源可行性分析：以甘比亞班竹地區為例

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研究生：	尤裴里 Philip Nyouky
論文名稱：	對市電應用的風能資源可行性分析：以甘比亞班竹地區為例 A Feasiblity Study on Wind Energy Resource for Utility-Scale Application: A Case Analysis from Greater Banjul Area, The Gambia
指導教授：	吳俊諆 Jiunn-Chi Wu
口試委員:
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	工學院 - 國際永續發展碩士在職專班 International Environment Sustainable Development Program
畢業學年度：	97
語文別：	英文
論文頁數：	87
中文關鍵詞：	風功率密度、市電力應用、風能特性、班竹地區、風能穫取
外文關鍵詞：	Wind energy extraction, Wind power density, Power utility application, Greater Banjul Area, Wind characteristics
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本研究對甘比亞班竹地區建構風力發電廠的可行性做初步探討，並分析了甘比亞再生能源中心氣象站(GREC 08)於2006年所量測每間隔10分鐘的風力資料。本文根據風力資源的特性來評估場址，也推導適當的機率密度函數與估計該場址風能潛力。此外，本文對在假設的風力場址的五個方案下可產生的電力做估算。此風力發電廠代表各種裝置容量的風力渦輪機的不同組合。也對不同風場的單位能源成本評估其經濟效益。本研究採用威布爾機率分佈，它能合理的呈現研究場址的風能機率分佈。透過已知的數學模型，運用多種分析方法來預測場址的能源密度、風能的電力輸出與經濟效益。根據風力的分級，該研究區域屬於第一級，在離地30.25公尺處量得年帄均風速為3.7 公尺/秒，其相對應的年帄均風能功率密度為42.3 W/m2。分析結果顯示，白天比晚上產生較多的風，乾燥的季節比下雨的季節產生較多的風。在不同的風場所產生的年淨能源輸出值從544.7~16712.6 MWh，而後者的數據為「最佳案例」的假設。每單位能源的成本介於0.287~8.797歐元/千瓦小時。根據此次所做的不同的分析與觀察的結果，GREC 08所量測的風力資源不適合開發城市的風力發電。然而，此研究仍受限於資料的限制，因此，希望未來有後續的研究。

This thesis presents a preliminary investigation on the suitability of Greater Banjul Areas (GBA) wind resources for utility-scale power generation. The 2006 measured 10-minute time-series wind data from one of Gambia Renewable Energy Center (GREC 08) meteorological station were statistically analyzed. This thesis assesses site base wind resource characteristics; derived a suitable probability density function and estimates the site wind power potential. In addition derivable electricity based on hypothetical wind farms and featuring five scenarios were investigated. The wind farms represent various combinations of wind turbines of different rated capacity. The economics of the various wind farms, based on “unit energy cost” were also investigated. The Weibull probability distribution is used in this study and is found as an adequate representation of probability distribution of wind at the study site. This study made used of various analytical techniques rooted on established mathematical models to predicate site power density, power output from wind turbines considered in the study as well as the study‟s economic constituent. Based on wind classification the study area lies within class 1 with annual mean wind speed of 3.7 m/s at the recording height of 30.25 m above ground level and a corresponding annual average wind power density of 42.3 W/m2. Analyses reveal that more wind is experienced during daytimes than at nighttimes and during the dry season than in raining season. The annual net energy output from the various wind farms ranges between 544.7 MWh to 16712.6 MWh, where the latter figure corresponds to the “best case” scenario. The unit cost of energy stands between a maximum of 8.797 ?/kWh and a minimum of 0.287 ?/kWh. Based on the results of various analyses and observations made during the course of the study, it is apparent that the wind resources at GREC 08 are unsuitable for wind extraction especially for the purpose of utility scale electricity generation. The study was however constrained by data limitations and hence a further study highly encouraged.
Keywords: Wind characteristics, Wind power density, Wind energy extraction, Power utility application, Greater

TABLE OF CONTENTS
國立中央大學 .................................................................................................................. i
對市電應用的風能資源可行性分析：以甘比亞班竹地區為例 ............................................. i
CHINESE ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................. ii
ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................................................... iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................... v
LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................. viii
ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................................. x
CHAPTER 1 ............................................................................................................................... 1
BACKGROUND ........................................................................................................................ 1
1.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1
1.2 Literature review .......................................................................................................... 4
1.3 Objective and research questions ................................................................................. 7
1.4 Scope of study captured in a conceptual map .............................................................. 8
1.5 Significance of the study .............................................................................................. 8
1.6 Methodology ................................................................................................................ 9
1.7 A brief description of the Gambia ............................................................................. 11
1.8 Brief description of The GBA and the study sites ..................................................... 13
1.9 Organization of the thesis .......................................................................................... 15
CHAPTER 2 ............................................................................................................................. 17
RESOURCE ASSESSMENT ................................................................................................... 17
2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 17
2.2 Wind resource assessment ......................................................................................... 17
2.2.1 Wind geography ................................................................................................. 18
2.2.2 Instrumentation ................................................................................................... 19
vi
2.2.3 Wind Power Class .............................................................................................. 21
2.2.4 Turbulence and wind shear ................................................................................. 22
2.2.5 Uncertainties associated with time-averaging of wind data ............................... 23
2.2.6 Incomplete data and uncertainty evaluation ....................................................... 24
2.2.7 Long term wind correlation ................................................................................ 25
2.2.8 Annual and overall wind speed .......................................................................... 27
2.2.9 Site short term wind resource analysis ............................................................... 28
2.2.9.1 Analytical expressions .................................................................................... 29
2.2.9.2 Monthly and seasonal wind speed variation ................................................... 30
2.2.9.3 Diurnal wind speed variation and wind direction ........................................... 30
2.2.10 Wind statistics .................................................................................................... 31
2.2.10.1 Statistical distribution of wind speed .......................................................... 32
2.2.10.2 Weibull distribution..................................................................................... 34
2.2.10.3 Results and discussion ................................................................................. 37
2.2.11 Wind power density and energy density............................................................. 39
CHAPTER 3 ............................................................................................................................. 42
WECS AND POWER OUTPUT ESTIMATION .................................................................... 42
3.1 Turbine power output assessment: Case analysis ........................................................... 42
3.1.1 Power curve ................................................................................................................. 44
3.1.2 Wind turbine efficiency, capacity factor and availability factor .............................. 46
3.1.3 Wind speed, wind power density, Weibull parameters and height .......................... 48
3.1.4 Wind power system: power and energy output ........................................................ 50
3.1.5 Factors influencing wind farm power output ........................................................... 52
3.1.6 Results and discussion .............................................................................................. 53
CHAPTER 4 ............................................................................................................................. 57
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................ 57
vii
4.1 Factors influencing the energy cost of grid connected systems ...................................... 58
4.2 Analytical method: “Unit cost of energy” approach ....................................................... 59
4.3 Results and discussion .................................................................................................... 60
CHAPTER 5 ............................................................................................................................. 62
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENTDATIONS ................................................................ 62
Recommendations ................................................................................................................. 64
REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................... 65
APPENDIX A .......................................................................................................................... 70
WIND MEASUREMENT ........................................................................................................ 70
APPENDIX B ........................................................................................................................... 71
DERIVATIONS OF MEAN WIND SPEED, STANDARD DEVIATION & CAPACITY FACTOR ................................................................................................................................. 71

                                

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