台灣本身為進出口貿易依存度較高的國家，出口貿易依存度高的國家包括中國和美國，進口貿易依存度高的國家包括日本和美國，2008年金融風暴期間造成全球經濟嚴重的衝擊，本文擬探討次貸危機期間台灣進出口貿易受他國進出口總需求、匯率、躉售物價指數、進出口物價指數之衝擊影響程度及預測誤差解釋-以向量自我迴歸模型（Vector Auto-regression, 以下簡稱VAR）模型分析。
本文實證分析分為出口和進口，蒐集2005年12月至2011年12月之月資料，另外，區分整體金融危機期間，研究範圍由2008年1月至2010年12月，做為相互對照，依據台灣進出口貿易依存度高的國家進行分析，探討台灣對中國或美國出口總額的影響、台灣自日本或美國進口總額的影響。
實證結果發現台灣對於中國或美國的出口總額會受到自身落後期的顯著影響，符合模型預期為正向，即前一期或前二期對中國或美國出口愈高，對本期的出口亦愈高。
台灣對進出口總額會受到匯率的影響，由實證結果顯示，匯率貶值對於出口有正面的影響，如同模型預期為正向，符合過去文獻針對台幣匯率對我國經濟的影響，台幣貶(升)值有利(不利)於出口預期。
躉售物價指數的負向反應落後二期，針對預測誤差所進行的實證結果顯示，台灣進出口貿易受躉售物價指數的解釋力並不高，乃是由於躉售物價指數本身是用來衡量生產者所面對的採購品的物價狀況衡量指標，間接影響進出口貿易，
次貸危機期間進出口貿易受到嚴重的衝擊，匯率貶值造成進口成本增加，從本文實證結果觀察，進出口物價指數的負向反應落後二期，針對預測誤差所進行的實證結果顯示，台灣進出口貿易受進出口物價指數的預測解釋力並不高，乃是由於進口物價指數係衡量價格水準的指標，間接影響進口總額。

Taiwan is a region highly dependent on foreign trade. China and US are two countries that are the most trade partners for Taiwan export, while Japan and US are two most importing countries. The financial crisis occurred in 2008 has had a great impact on the global economy. The thesis, based on the analysis of VAR Model, discusses Taiwan’s foreign trade which is influenced by other countries’ foreign trade demands, exchange rates, wholesale price indexes, foreign trade price indexes and explanation of estimated error during the period of the subprime mortgage crisis.
An empirical analysis on export and import demand was carried out using the data collected for December, 2005 to December, 2011. In addition, to highlight the overall financial crisis, the period from January, 2008 to December, 2010 is chosen to be the research range for comparison. We estimate separately the export and import demand model, in which the export demand was focused on the analysis of China and US, while the import demand was emphasized on Japan and US.
The empirical results show that Taiwan’s exports were influenced on the previous periods of exports.This outcome in line with the estimated positive tendency of the VAR Model, explained that the higher Taiwan’s export to China and US is in the last period or last two periods, the higher the export will be in the current period.
In addition, Taiwan’s export will be influenced by the exchange rate. The empirical results show that the depreciation of exchange rates has a positive effect on export which is the same as the positive tendency estimated by the VAR Model. It is also in line with the literatures which focus on the influence of Taiwan’s exchange rate made to its economy, namely, currency, depreciation (appreciation) of NTD is favorable (unfavorable) to the export. Also, trade was greatly impacted by the subprime mortgage crisis and the cost of import was increased by the depreciation of exchange rates.
Overall, our empirical results show that Taiwan’s export and import were highly influenced by the financial crisis and the impacts were smoothly disappeared after 20 months.

參考文獻
一、中文部分
[1] 楊曼君(2002)，「台商赴中國大陸投資對台灣進出口貿易之影響」，國立成功大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
[2] 林子菁(2002)，「台灣資訊電子產業出口競爭力之實證分析」，國立中興大學行銷研究所碩士論文。
[3] 任燿廷(2005), 「日本與台灣TFT LCD產業競爭優勢與國際策略聯盟之研究」，淡江大學日本研究所碩士論文。
[4] 黃韻禎(2007)，「匯率波動對台灣出口的影響」，國立政治大學國際貿易研究所碩士論文。
[5] 黃久倫(2009)，「匯率波動對貿易進出口影響之實證研究」，國立中正大學國際經濟研究所碩士論文。
[6] 劉錦龍(2012)，「檢視ECFA貿易效果」，國立中央大學產業經濟研究所。
[7] 黃台心(2002)，「出口與經濟成長的因果關係:台灣的實證研究」，經濟論文叢刊，30(4)，465-490。
[8] 王泓仁(2005)，「台幣匯率對我國經濟金融活動之影響」，中央銀行季刊，27(1)，13-45。
[9] 陳旭昇、吳聰敏(2008)，「台灣匯率制度初探」，經濟論文叢刊，36(2)，147-182。
[10]陳美菊、李淑麗(2010)，「全球經濟危機對台灣貿易之影響及對策」，經建會經濟研究第十期，279-297。
[11]柯勝揮、江朝宗(2011)，「實質所得、相對價格、匯率與國際貿易之動態關聯分析-以台灣對美日貿易為例」，貿易調查叢刊，22(2)，75-100。
[12]黃克昌、林昌亮(2001)，「判讀財經指標」，台北，書泉出版社。
[13]許勝雄(2009)，「貿易領航展商機」，台北市進出口商業同業公會。
[14]費劍平、林相森(2003)，「計量經濟學導論:現代觀點」，中國人民大學出版社。
[15]羅致政(2010)，「ECFA大衝擊:台灣的危機與挑戰」，新台灣國策智庫有限公司。
[16]劉國昭(2011)，「後ECFA經貿躍商機」，台北市進出口商業同業公會。
[17]鍾惠民、周賓凰、孫而音(2011)，「財務計量：Eviews 的運用」，新陸書局股份有限公司。
[18]經濟部國貿局http://www.trade.gov.tw/
[19]行政院主計處http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=1
[20]中華人民共和國海關總署http://www.customs.gov.cn/publish/portal0/
[21]美國對外貿易官方網站http://www.census.gov/
[22]中央銀行http://www.cbc.gov.tw/mp1.html
[23]財政部統計處http://www.mof.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=9553&ctNode=168&mp=1
二、英文部分
[1] Alan Katz and Ian Katz.(2008) “Greenspan Slept as Off-Books Debt Escaped Scrutiny”, Bloomberg.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&refer=home&sid=aYJZOB_gZi0I
[2] Baxter, Marianne and Stockman, Alan C. (1989), “Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime: Some international evidence”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 23(3), 377-400.
[3] Barkoulas, J. T., C. F. Baum and M. Caglayan (2002), “Exchange Rate Effects on the Volume and Variability of Trade Flows”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 21 (4), 481-496.
[4] Ben Steverman and David Bogoslaw.(2008), “The Financial Crisis Blame”, Business Week.
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/oct2008/pi20081017_950382.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_top+story
[5] Bernanke-The Global Savings Glut and U.S. current Account Deficit.(2005)美國聯邦儲備局.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/20050414/default.htm
[6] Bloomberg-Credit Swap Disclosure Obscures True Financial Risk.(2008)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aKKRHZsxRvWs&refer=home
[7] Bloomberg-Bradley Keoun.Citibank Bailout.(2008)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a957XI5bBv7g&refer=home
[8] Choudhry, T. (2005), “Exchange Rate Volatility and the United States Exports: Evidence from Canada and Japan”, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 19 (1), 51-71.
[9] Demyanyk, Yuliya; Van Hemert, Otto.(2008)“Understanding the Subprime Mortagage Crisis”, Working Paper Series. Social Science Electronic Publishing.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1020396
[10] Dominguez, Kathryn M.(1993), “Does central bank intervention increase the volatility of foreign exchange rates?”, NBER working paper, w4532.
[11] Edwards, Sebastian (1989), “Real Exchange Rates, Devaluation, and Adjustment”, Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.
[12] Eiichi Tomiura(2003), “Capacity constraint and seasonal productivity variations at plant level”, Applied Economics Letters, 10, 197-200.
[13] Fatum, Rasmus and Hutchison, Michael M.(2003), “Effectiveness of official daily foreign exchange market intervention operations in Japan”, NBER working paper, 9648.
[14] Fischer, S.(2003), “Globalization and Its Challenges”, American Economic Review, 93, 1-30.
[15] Flood, Robert P. and Rose, Andrew K.(1995), “Fixing exchange rates a virtual quest for fundamentals”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 36(1), 3-37.
[16]Goldstein, M. and M.S. Khan.(1978), “The supply and demand for exports: a simultaneous approach”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 60, 275-285.
[17]Kamin, S. B. and J. H. Rogers.(2000), “Output and the Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: An Application to Mexico”, Journal of Development Economics, 61, 85-109.
[18]Kose, M. A., C. Otrok, and C. H. Whiteman.(2003), “International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors”, American Economic Review, 93(4), September.
[19] Michael McKee and Simon Kennedy. (2008), “ G-20 Calls for Action on Growth, Overhaul of Financial Rules”, Bloomberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aI66qmU1GDXk&refer=home
[20]Morley, Samuel A. (1992), “On the Effect of Devaluation During Stabilization Programs in LDCs”, Review of Economics and Statistics, LXXIV: 21-27.
[21] Nicole Gelinas.(2008) ,“Gelinas-Sheltering Speculation”, The Manhattan Institute.
http://www.city-journal.org/2008/eon1029ng.html
[22] Peter J. Wallison, Charles W. Calomiris.(2008), “AEI-The Last Trillion Dollar Commitment”, Financial Services Outlook-AEI Online. http://www.aei.org
[23] Rogers, John H. and Ping Wang (1995), “Output, Inflation, and Stabilization in a Small Open Economy: Evidence from Mexico”, Journal of Development Economics, 46:
271-293.
[24] Shiller-Infectious Exuberance-The Atlantic.
http://www.theatlantic.om/magazine/archive/2008/07/infectious-exuberance/6839/
[25] Timothy A. Deyak & W. Charles Sawyer & Richard L. Sprinkle.(1993), “The Adjustment of Canadian Import Demand to Changes in Income, Prices, and Exchange Rate”, The Canadian Journal of Economics, 26(4), 890-900.