衛星資料估算颱風旋轉與登陸強度衰減在熱帶氣旋降水潛勢計算之應用

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研究生：	林東逸 Dong-yi Lin
論文名稱：	衛星資料估算颱風旋轉與登陸強度衰減在熱帶氣旋降水潛勢計算之應用
指導教授：	劉振榮 Gin-rong Liu
口試委員:
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	地球科學學院 - 大氣物理研究所 Graduate Institute of Atmospheric Physics
畢業學年度：	96
語文別：	中文
論文頁數：	112
中文關鍵詞：	遞減方程式、熱帶降水潛勢
外文關鍵詞：	decay equation, Tropical Rainfall Potential（ TRaP)
相關次數：	點閱：14 下載：0
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近年來微波頻道解析度提昇及其可透雲性，對於反演颱風降雨率之準確性有不錯的結果。Kidder et al.(2005)利用微波頻道優點發展一個快速實用方法估算降雨。Kidder et al.(2005)利用SSM/I、TMI及AMSU等被動式微波資料估算熱帶氣旋降雨，參考官方預報熱帶氣旋路徑資料，利用平移方法預測24小時後熱帶降水潛勢(Tropical Rainfall Potential，TRaP)，但此方法沒有考慮熱帶氣旋旋轉所造成的降雨空間分布改變，且忽略了熱帶氣旋登陸後強度衰減產生降雨變化的事實。
Kaplan and DeMaria (1995)發展出一套簡易模式以exponential decay equation關係來推估熱帶氣旋登陸平原後強度變化，本研究進ㄧ步應用上述關係式並加以改進成可預測颱風登陸後有地形影響之強度變化。研究結果顯示:登陸平原颱風個案，估算強度之平均絕對誤差為4.48kt ;登陸丘陵地形颱風個案，估算強度之平均絕對誤差為6.73kt。本研究使用SSM/I衛星觀測資料反演降雨率，推估1990~2004年期間西北太平洋颱風登陸中國大陸華南地區陸地後的強度變化，再加入Kidder et al.(2005)考慮颱風平移過程與Liu et al.(2008)考慮颱風旋轉對降雨造成的影響，以預測未來6小時的累積降雨，並以中國大陸地面測站降雨資訊做驗證。研究結果發現:只考慮颱風平移時，其6小時累積降雨和測站觀測資料的相關係數為0.68，若同時考慮颱風平移、旋轉及強度變化相關係數增加為0.75，故考慮颱風的旋轉及強度變化有助於提昇降雨估算之準確度。

In the past decades, microwave sensors have become an important tool in typhoon rainfall monitoring due to the cloud transparency capacity and resolution improvement. Kidder et al. (2005) used passive microwave data, such as SSM/I, TMI and AMSU, to predict the 24-hour later tropical cyclone rainfall potential (TRaP) via a simple cyclone shift-motion assumption, along with the official cyclone track prediction results. However, their method didn’t take into account the cyclone intensity and cyclone rotation changes, which could alter the rainfall spatial patterns .
Based on the TRaP method, this research factors in the cyclone intensity changes after making landfall via an exponential decay equation(Kaplan and DeMaria, 1995). The intensity estimations reveal that the mean absolute errors (MAE) are 4.48kt and 6.73kt for plain and hill regions, respectively. In addition, the cyclone rotation effect on the rainfall patterns is considered (Liu et al., 2008), as well. The landfalling tropical cyclones in the southeastern China between 1990 to 2004 were analyzed, where their respective 6-hour later rainfall rates were predicted. The projected rainfall was verified by ground weather station data. Results reveal that the correlation is 0.68 when the shift-motions are only considered, and is 0.75 when the tropical cyclones’ intensity and rotation changes are also taken into account, it can further improve the TRaP method accuracy.

摘要....................................................................................................................I
英文摘要……………………………………………………………………..II
致謝………………………………………………………………………….III
目錄.................................................................................................................IV
表目錄...........................................................................................................VII
圖目錄..............................................................................................................X
第一章 緒論.....................................................................................................1
1.1 前言..............................................................................................1
1.2 文獻回顧......................................................................................2
1.3 研究動機與目的..........................................................................5
第二章 資料蒐集.............................................................................................8
2.1 地球同步衛星資料......................................................................8
2.1.1  GOES-9衛星.....................................................................8
2.1.2  MTSAT衛星.....................................................................9
2.2  SSM/I衛星資料.........................................................................9
2.3  JTWC最佳路徑資料...............................................................11
2.4 中國大陸測站雨量資料............................................................11
第三章 研究基礎及方法...............................................................................13
3.1 Ferraro降雨反演式.....................................................................13
3.2 颱風移動方向與移動速度與旋轉角度....................................15
3.2.1 颱風移動方向與移動速度.............................................15
3.2.2 估算颱風旋轉角度.........................................................15
3.3 估算熱帶氣旋登陸後強度變化................................................16
3.3.1 分類不同登陸地形之高度值.........................................17
3.3.2 颱風登陸平原之強度估計方程式…………………….18
3.3.3 颱風登陸丘陵地形之強度估計方程式…………….....18
3.4  颱風強度與降雨之關係..........................................................19
第四章 結果分析與個案討論...................................................................... 22
4.1 估算登陸後熱帶氣旋強度變化之結果討論............................22
4.1.1  榴槤颱風(2001)............................................................22
4.1.2  玉兔颱風(2001)............................................................23
4.1.3  伊布都颱風(2003)........................................................23
4.1.4  柯羅旺颱風(2003)........................................................23
4.1.5  杜鵑颱風(2003)............................................................24
4.1.6  馬莎颱風(2005)............................................................24
4.1.7  卡努颱風(2005)…………………................................24
4.1.8  桑美颱風(2006)…………………................................25
4.2 平移過程分別考慮颱風旋轉、旋轉加強度變化與強度
變化預測降雨之結果.............................................................25
4.2.1  榴槤颱風(2001)............................................................25
4.2.2  玉兔颱風(2001)............................................................26
4.2.3  伊布都颱風(2003)........................................................27
4.2.4  柯羅旺颱風(2003)........................................................28
4.2.5  杜鵑颱風(2003)............................................................29
4.2.6  馬莎颱風(2005)............................................................30
4.2.7  卡努颱風(2005)…………………................................30
4.2.8  桑美颱風(2006)…………………................................31
4.3 整體結果討論............................................................................32
第五章 結論與未來展望...............................................................................33
參考文獻.........................................................................................................36
參考網站.........................................................................................................40
附表.................................................................................................................41
附圖.................................................................................................................68

                                

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