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研究生: 杜俊學
Jun-Xue Du
論文名稱: 隨機克利金法在受限制下的模擬應用於週期性訂貨政策最佳化
Stochastic Kriging Metamodeling in Constrained Simulation Optimization :on Inventory Period Review Policy
指導教授: 葉英傑
口試委員:
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業管理研究所
Graduate Institute of Industrial Management
論文出版年: 2018
畢業學年度: 106
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 38
中文關鍵詞: 蒙地卡羅模擬克利金內插法隨機克利金法(s , S )存貨系統
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  • 隨機克利金法(Stochastic Kriging)是一種開發已久,用於模型化(metamodeling)隨機模擬模型的方法。隨機克利金法是將克利金法(Kriging)進行改良後的一種方法,相較於克利金法忽略了各模擬試驗中的每個重複試驗中輸出值的變異數,隨機克利金法加入了重複試驗中的內部變異數視為隨機模擬中固有的不確定性,進而使得隨機克利金法能夠更好的運用在隨機模擬上。
    本研究主要為研究隨機克利金法在受限制式下進行估計設計點的模擬值,建立一個能夠快速得出總成本的模型,在該模型下找出最佳的訂貨政策。實驗研究了在( s , S )存貨系統下,目標為找到s和S的最佳解,使其總成本最小化;使用隨機克利金法之後所得到的元模型(metamodel),將我們給定的設計點帶入元模型中,篩選出服從限制式條件下的設計點,最後篩選出最小成本的s和S值。


    This paper demonstrated an experiment exploring the potential of the Stochastic Kriging methodology for constrained simulation optimization. The experiment study an ( s , S ) inventory system with the objective of finding the optimal values of s&S and the minimize total cost. The goal function and constraints in these experiment, did the approach to determine the optimum combination predicted by the Stochastic Kriging prediction model. The results of this experiment indicate that Stochastic Kriging offers opportunities for solving constrained optimization problems in stochastic simulation

    目錄 中文摘要 i Abstract ii 目錄 iii 一、 緒論 1 1-1研究背景與動機 1 1-2 研究目的與方法 2 1-3 研究架構 3 二、 文獻探討 5 2-1 元模型 5 2-1-1 反應曲面法(Response Surface Metamodels) 5 2-2克利金法(Kiging Method) 6 2-2-1基本克利金法 7 2-3隨機克利金法(Stochastic Kriging) 8 2-3-1隨機克利金法基礎假設 9 2-3-2 隨機克利金預測器 10 2-3-3 參數估計 11 2-3-4 估計內部變異數 12 2-3-5 最大概似估計 13 2-4存貨策略 15 三、 研究方法 16 3-1 研究流程 16 3-1-1 預測流程 16 3-1-2 隨機模擬模型建構 17 3-1-3 顧客需求 18 3-1-4 檢查及補貨政策 18 3-1-5 成本建構 18 3-1-6 變數初始值 19 四、 實驗結果 20 4-1 Arena模擬結果 20 4-2 隨機克利金法預測器結果 21 五、 結論與未來展望 27 5-1結論 27 5-2未來展望 28 六、 參考文獻 29

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