過去二十年台灣股市曾三度上探萬點，背後所隱含的意義卻不相同。從這三次台股站上萬點時的類股結構來看，可以發現，1990年台股站上12,682點時，外銷導向類股如：電子、紡織等占台股市值比重僅約15%，而1997年台股站上10,256點，外銷導向類股占台股市值比重上升至40%水準，至2000年台股再度登上10,227點時，以電子股為主體的外銷導向產業，占台股市值比重已達60%水準，顯示電子產業對國內金融及經濟影響比重有逐漸上升趨勢。惟萬點行情的結束，除受全球經濟景氣影響外，另一原因便始於企業財務危機事件的發生。
本研究主要探討如何利用企業財務比率等因子，藉以供為金融機構授信風險評估，研究期間自2000年至2005年，以國內上市電子產業為研究標的，以2000年至2005年發生危機的上市電子公司，及與危機公司相同產業別正常上市電子公司為樣本，共101家公司進行分析。本研究採用logistic迴歸模式將財務比率分別建構財務危機預警模型，找出明顯影響財務危機之財務比率因子，另實證結果亦顯示，越接近發生財務危機的年度預測效果及準確度相對較高。

In the past twenty year, Taiwan Stock quote has reached 10,000 points for three times. By observing the various sector structures from these three occasions, we can find that when Taiwan Stock quote reached 12,682 points in 1990, export-oriented sectors such as Electronic, Textile etc. were accounted approximately 15% of Taiwan Stock market value. In 1997 when Taiwan Stock quote reached 10,256 points, the ratio has upraised to 40%, and to 60% when stock quote reached 10,227 points in 2000. It appears that electronic industry has progressively influence on Taiwan finance and economic. Only when 10,000 stock quote end, besides the global economic influence, the main reason is enterprises financial crisis.
This research discusses how to provide financial facility credibility risk evaluation by using enterprise financial ratio factors. The research targets the Taiwan listed electronic enterprise from 2000 to 2005, and analyzes 101 companies’data includes those has crisis listed companies and normal listed companies.
This research analyzes financial ratio by using logistic regression to construct the financial crisis precaution model. We discover the obvious effective factors lead to financial crisis, and also the result indicates that the closer the financial crisis year, the more accurate the prediction is.

中文參考文獻
1.王濟川、郭至剛(2004)‧Logistic 迴歸模型-方法及應用‧台北:五南。
2.尤宜珍(2003)‧以公司治理與徵信資訊建構銀行授信戶財務危機預警模型‧國立高雄第一科技大學財務管理所‧碩士論文。
3.吳念芳(2003)‧從銀行借款資訊探討公司財務危機」‧國立高雄第一科技大學財務管理所‧碩士論文。
4.陳明賢(1986)‧財務危機預測之計量分析研究‧台灣大學商研所‧碩士論文。
5.陳肇榮(1983)‧運用財務比率預測企業財務危機之實證研究‧政治大學財政研究所‧博士論文。
6.陳錦村、江玉娟、朱育男(2006)‧商業銀行如何建置符合新巴塞爾資本協定的信用評等制度‧金融風險管理季刊，2(1)，115-140。
7.陳正倉、林惠玲、陳忠榮、莊春發(2007)‧產業經濟學‧台北:雙葉書廊有限公司。
8.黃建華(2006)‧加入公司治理變數建構台灣上市櫃公司之財務危機預警模型」‧東吳大學國際貿易學系‧碩士論文。
9.黃台心(2007)‧計量經濟學‧台北:雙葉書廊有限公司。
10.謝德宗、俞海琴(2001)‧現代投資學‧台北: 華泰文化事業股份有限公司。
英文參考文獻
1.Agresti, A. (1996). An Itroduction to Categorical Data Analysis”, New Yourk:John Wliey.
2.Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis, and the Prediction of Corporate Bankrupty. Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589-609.
3.Altman, E. I., Haldeman, R. G., & Narayanan, P. (1977). ZETA Analysis, A New Model to Identify Bankruptcy Risk of Corporations. Journal of Banking and Finance, 1, 29-54.
4.Beaver, W. H. (1966). Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure in Empirical Research in Accounting: Selected Studies. Supplement to Journal of Accounting Research, 4,71-111.
5.Collett, D. (1991). Modelling Binary Data. New Yourk:Chapman & Hall.
6.Gentry J. A., Newbold P. and Whitford D. T., 1985, "Classifying Bankrupt Firms with Funds Flow Components," Journal of Accounting Research, 23, 146-160.
7.Hair, J. F., Jr., Anderson, R. E., Tatham, R. L., & Black, W. C. (1998). Multivariate data analysis. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
8.Hosmer, D. W., & Lemeshow, S. (1989) Applied Logistic Regression. New Yourk:John Wliey and Sons.
9.John G.Fulmer,Thomas A.Gavin,William J.Bertin (1991-1992 )“What Factors Influence the Lending Decision：A Survey of Commercial Loan Officers”, Commerical Lending Review, 7：64-70 .
10.Lau, Amy Hing-Ling(1987) ,”A Five-State Financial Distress Predication Model, ” Journal of Accounting Research, Vol.25, 127-138.
11.Lemmon, M. and K. Lins (2001).“Ownership Structure, Corporate Governance, and Firm Value:Evidence from the East Asian Financial Crisis.” Working Paper, University of Utah.
12.Lee, T. S. and H. Y. Yeh (2004).“Corporate Governance and Financial Distress: Evidence from Taiwan.”Journal of Corporate Governance, 12, No.3, 378-388.
13.Ohlson, J. A. (1980). Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research, 18, 109-131.
14.Rezaee, Z. (2005). “Causes, Consequence, and Deterrence of Financial Statement Fraud.” Critical Perspective on Accounting, 16, No.3, 277-298.