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研究生: 陳英慧
Ying-Hui Chen
論文名稱: 汽油需求影響因素之探討:以台灣自用小客車為例
指導教授: 劉錦龍
Jin-Long Liu
口試委員:
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 產業經濟研究所
Graduate Institute of Industrial Economics
畢業學年度: 92
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 87
中文關鍵詞: 汽油需求家計特徵半參數模型非參數模型
外文關鍵詞: semiparametric model, nonparametric model, demographic characteristic, gasoline demand
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  • 本研究實證資料採用交通部統計處「台灣地區自用小客車使用狀況調查」問卷資料,分別為85、87、89及91年等四年度。利用半參數與非參數迴歸估計法,探討影響家計部門對於汽油消費的因素,及家計單位在不同的所得水準及年齡層下,汽油需求彈性是否有所不同?最後,並利用油品分類(九二、九五和九八無鉛汽油),個別估計與分析價格彈性和所得彈性的異同。
    研究結果發現,所得越高、男性駕駛者、家中持有車數越多及排氣量越大等,對汽油消費需求有正向的影響;而油價上漲、乘坐人數越多、車齡越老舊(在十年以內)及燃油效率越高,對汽油消費需求有負向的影響。另外,所得大於6萬元者,其所得彈性比所得少於6萬者大。而年齡小於25歲者,隨著年齡增加,對汽油的消費會遞增。年齡大於25歲者,則是隨著年齡增加,汽油消費遞減。
    總樣本的汽油需求價格彈性為-0.335,富有彈性(此為與其他文獻之比較論點)。以油品種類來劃分之估計結果,九二無鉛汽油及九五無鉛汽油之價格彈性,分別為-0.356與-0.349,隱含若以價格為政策手段來抑制汽油消費,可能會有不錯的成效。在所得彈性方面,總樣本的汽油需求所得彈性為0.139,而九二、九五及九八無鉛汽油各為0.127、0.133與0.276。如此的估計結果隱含,當家計面所得提升時,九八、九五無鉛汽油的需求量可能會高過九二無鉛汽油。當景氣開始好轉時,廠商可以多生產九八及九五無鉛汽油,以備供給。


    表目錄 .............................................................................................................. II 圖目錄 ............................................................................................................. III 第壹章 導論........................................................................................................... 1 第一節 研究動機與研究目的..................................................................................2 第二節 探討主題......................................................................................................3 第三節 研究方法與論文架構..................................................................................4 第貳章 能源政策、油品市場與汽油供需問題................................................ 6 第一節 能源政策......................................................................................................6 第二節 石油政策......................................................................................................9 第三節 台灣地區油品市場的發展與現況............................................................11 第四節 車用汽油的演變過程................................................................................14 第參章 文獻回顧................................................................................................ 16 第一節 回顧整理型文獻........................................................................................16 第二節 變數資料的差異........................................................................................17 第三節 計量方法的差異........................................................................................20 第肆章 資料來源與資料處理............................................................................ 30 第一節 問卷資料....................................................................................................30 第二節 資料處理....................................................................................................40 第伍章 實証模型與估計方法............................................................................ 46 第一節 實證模型....................................................................................................47 第二節 非參數及半參數迴歸估計法....................................................................50 第三節 實證結果與分析........................................................................................53 第陸章 結論......................................................................................................... 82 第一節 本研究的特色............................................................................................82 第二節 本研究的結論與發現................................................................................82 第三節 未來研究方向............................................................................................83 參考文獻 ............................................................................................................. 84

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