過去台灣地區一年遭到颱風侵襲平均約3-4次，頻繁的颱風事件常伴隨著暴雨及淹水的產生，面對如此頻繁的淹水事件，民眾之財物暴露於風險下的機會也大大增加，故本研究將以巨災風險評估模型討論各個淹水事件造成的損失情形。
巨災風險評估模型分為推測事件模組、危害度分析模組、暴露度模組、損失分析模組與財務模組，為了評估淹水造成的損失，本研究將著重於暴露度模組以及損失分析模組，以台灣中港溪及其附近流域內之住宅和工商及服務業為對象，先以WASH123D模式進行各重現期的淹水情形模擬，並蒐集台灣地區淹水損失的相關文獻並修正以及風險暴露量之資訊，最後計算年平均損失與損失超越機率。

In the past, there were about 3-4 typhoons to hit Taiwan per year on average. Typhoon events were often accompanied by heavy rain and flooding. Facing of such flooding, the chance of people’s property exposed to risks was also significant increasing. In this study, the catastrophe risk assessment model is used to assess the loss caused by the various flooding events.
The catastrophe risk assessment model includes five different modules, which are stochastic event module, hazard module, exposure module, vulnerability module and financial module. To assess the loss caused by flooding, this study will focus on exposure module and vulnerability module. Considered the residential houses and industrial, commercial, service industries in Zhong Gang river and its nearby basins as the targets of this study, three steps were taken to conduct this investigation. First, WASH123D model was employed to simulate and delineate flooding due to various return periods of precipitation. Second, relevant literatures and the information of risk exposure were collected. Finally the annual average loss and loss exceeding probability were calculated.

1.王如意及蘇明道等，「水災損失評估系統模式之建立(1/2)」，經濟部水資源局，台北(2002)。
2.李欣輯、魏曉萍、劉俊志、楊昇學、葉克家、黃嬿蓁，「極端降雨事件之淹水模擬分析與損失評估」，國家災害防救科技中心，新店(2013)。
3.林依潔，「台北市洪災風險分析」，碩士論文，國立台灣大學生物資源暨農學院生物環境系統工程研究所，台北(2012)。
4.洪東謀，「台灣地區天然巨災風險評估之建立」，博士論文，國立中央大學土木工程系，中壢(2009)。
5.張倉榮、許銘熙、林國峰、賴進松、潘宗毅，「脆弱度及風險地圖分析方法之研究」，經濟部水利署，台北(2010)。
6.張齡方，「住宅區淹水損失之推估」，碩士論文，國立臺灣大學農業工程學研究所，台北(2000)。
7.陳學宏，「洪水保險危險費率釐訂－以一般住宅為例」，碩士論文，國立中央大學土木工程系，中壢(2012)。
8.黃奕程，「整合定量降雨及水文模式應用於洪水預報－以基隆河流域為例」，碩士論文，國立中央大學，中壢(2015)。
9.經濟部水利署，「氣候變遷對中部(雲中彰)與花東海岸防護衝擊與調適研究(2/2)」，經濟部水利署，台北(2015)。
10.歐春吉，「洪水損失評估模式之建立及其保險制度上之應用」，碩士論文，國立中央大學土木工程系，中壢(2004)。
11.鄭思蘋，「都會區颱洪災害損失之分析與評估」，博士論文，國立台灣大學生物環境系統工程研究所，台北(2003)。
12.蕭代基、黃星翔、洪銘堅、盧孟明及羅以倫，「淡水河流域洪災損失機率風險分析」，台灣經濟預測與政策，第三十卷，第三期，第31-53頁，中央研究院經濟研究所，台北(2007)。
13.糠瑞林，「區域淹水災害風險評估及其未確定性分析」，博士論文，國立台灣大學生物環境系統工程研究所，台北(2005)
14.Besio, M., Ramella, A., Boobe, A., Colombo, A., Olivieri, C., and Persano, M. (1998). “Risk maps: theoretical concepts and techniques.” Journal of Hazardous Materials, 61, 299-304.
15.Dong, W. (2001). “Building a More Profitable Portfolio-Modern Portfolio Theory with Application to Catastrophe Insurance.” Reactions Publishing Group, London.
16.Eckstein, O. (1959). “Water Resource Development: The Economics of Project Evaluation.” Journal of Farm Economics, 41(3), 668-670.
17.James, L. D. (1972). “Role of economics in planning flood plain land use.” Journal of Hydraulic Division, 98(6), 981-992.
18.FEMA. (2003) “Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology Flood Model Hazus-MH Technical Manual.” FEMA, Washington.
19.Shaw, D. G., Huang, H. H., Ho, M. C. and Lin, S. Y. (2005). “Modeling Flood Loss and Risk Perception－The Case of Typhoon Nari in Taipei.” Fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum Integrated Disaster Risk Management : Innovations in Science and Policy, Beijing, China.
20.Shih, D. S. and Yeh, G. T. (2011). “Identified Model Parameterization, Calibration, and Validation of the Physically Distributed Hydrological Model WASH123D in Taiwan.” Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 16(2), 126-136.
21.Shih, S. D. , Chen, C. H. and Yeh, G. T. (2014). “Improving our understanding of flood forecasting using earlier hydro-meteorological intelligence.” Journal of Hydrology, 512, 470-481.
22.水利署第二河川局，http://www.wra02.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=02
23.Munich Re, https://www.munichre.com/en/homepage/index.html.
24.Swiss RE Institute, http://www.swissre.com/