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研究生： 鄧竹軒
Zhu-Hsu Deng
論文名稱： 快速回應系統具時間延遲效果之二次訂購模式
指導教授： 沈國基
Gwo-Ji Sheen
口試委員:
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 管理學院 - 工業管理研究所
Graduate Institute of Industrial Management
畢業學年度： 88
語文別： 中文
論文頁數： 89
中文關鍵詞： 二次訂購 、時間延遲 、快速回應
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    • 本研究在快速回應(Quick Response ,QR)系統下，以通路利潤最大化為目標函數，建立具時間延遲(Time Postponement)效果二次訂購模式，二次訂購機會(Two Ordering Opportunities)指的是零售商在銷售季開始之前有第一次訂購機會，並可於銷售期間，觀察到實際需求發生的情況，在更正確的掌握需求狀況下決定第二次訂購量，以減少缺貨或存貨過多所造成的成本，藉此達到整體通路利潤的提昇；在探討時間延遲效果時，我們採用隨機需求為已知部分需求資訊後的事後需求分配，並利用與時間相關的需求函數建立二次訂購模式，以探討延遲決策時點與採購量之間的關係，並在具時間延遲效果的二次訂購模式中加入製造商的產能限制，決定零售商最佳的採購決策時點、採購量與製造商最佳的生產時點。
    本研究經由模式驗證的結果，發現了產銷雙方合作進行聯合決策時，二次訂購的好處及時間延遲的重要性；首先本研究發現零售商以二次訂購的方式，也就是零售商在銷售期開始後有多一次的訂購機會，確實比零售商只擁有一次訂購機會時，更能正確的掌握需求狀況，減少缺貨或存貨過多所造成的成本，達到整體通路利潤的提昇；而在時間延遲的效果上，我們發現透過製造商與零售商資訊交換等合作方式，延遲決策時點，的確能提昇整體通路利潤；並且發現當未來需求不確定性愈高時，此時採用無時間延遲效果的二次訂購模式，對整體通路利潤提升的效果將愈來愈小，而當零售商採用具時間延遲效果的二次訂購模式時，對整體通路利潤提升的效果則較為顯著。由數值分析的結果我們亦發現了，當零售商延遲決策時點在一定的時間後，延遲決策時點為提昇整體通路利潤所帶來的效果將愈來愈小，由此結果，我們可知零售商在訂定採購決策時並不需一昧的延遲決策時點，造成製造商生產的壓力。總結以上之結果可知，施行快速回應系統時，藉由買賣雙方合作取得及時、正確及有用的需求相關資訊，此時零售商採用具時間延遲效果的二次訂購方式，可有效的降低未來需求的不確定性，達到提昇整體通路利潤的目的。

    提要........................................................I 目錄.......................................................III 圖目錄......................................................V 表目錄.....................................................VII 第一章 緒論...................................................1 1.1研究背景與重要性...........................................1 1.2問題敘述及目的.............................................6 1.2.1 問題敘述................................................6 1.2.2研究目的.................................................7 1.3研究方法及流程.............................................8 1.3.1研究方法.................................................8 1.3.2研究流程.................................................9 第二章 文獻回顧..............................................11 2.1 延遲理論.................................................11 2.2 多階層存貨模式...........................................17 2.3資訊價值的探討............................................19 2.3.1 製造商與零售商的資訊共享...............................19 2.3.2 Bayesian updating......................................20 2.4隨機需求..................................................24 2.5報童問題..................................................26 2.5.1報童問題................................................26 2.5.2二次訂購之報童問題......................................26 第三章 二次訂購模式..........................................29 3.1無時間延遲效果之二次訂購模式(model 2).....................29 3.1.1 一次訂購二階層通路利潤模式(model 1)....................29 3.1.2 參數設定...............................................31 3.1.3最佳第一次訂購量之決定..................................32 3.1.4最佳總訂購量之決定......................................37 3.2具有時間延遲效果二次訂購模式（model 3）...................37 3.2.1具時間延遲效果最佳第一次訂購量之決定....................41 3.2.2具時間延遲效果最佳總訂購量之決定........................46 3.3 最佳延遲決策時點之推導...................................47 第四章 數據分析及結果驗證....................................51 4.1 一次訂購與二次訂購決策模式整體通路利潤比較...............52 4.2無時間延遲效果與具時間延遲效果之二次訂購整體通路利潤比較..55 4.3 二次訂購模式時間延遲對整體通路利潤影響...................59 4.4最佳延遲時點之推導........................................65 第五章 結論..................................................68 5.1 研究貢獻.................................................68 5.2 研究限制.................................................69 5.3未來發展方向..............................................70 附錄 A.......................................................71 附錄 B.......................................................72 參考文獻.....................................................73

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