摘 要

本研究根據105年家庭收支調查報告中桃園市有效抽樣戶1,495戶，以用電量為應變數進行迴歸分析。在實證模型上，採行兩種方式，一種是使用全部受調查戶數總計1,495戶；另一種則是將用電量大小排序後，依低中高用電量戶各別分析；此外，本研究亦使用分量迴歸進行分析。實證結果顯示，高耗電高使用率電器數量及水費及垃圾清潔費對於全體樣本及高、中、低用電群組各別一般線性迴歸分析(OLS)及分量迴歸(Quantile Regression)分析中，皆顯示對於用電量有顯著正向關係，表示高耗能高使用率電器汰舊換新應為較有效益之節電措施，呼應政府辦理節能家電補助之立意；再者，水費及垃圾清潔費之高低隱含家庭成員居家時間之長短，表示戶外共餐或夏日酷涼分享活動等相關鼓勵民眾外出之措施亦可有節電成效。最後，本研究之結果應可提供政府推動住宅節電政策規劃之參考。

The Analysis of Household Electricity Demand
- The Case of Taoyuan City
ABSTRACT
According to the Taiwan Household Income and Expenditure Survey of Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, there are 1,495 effective observations in the survey of 105-year for the Taoyuan city. In this study, we used the electricity consumption as a dependent variable for regression analysis. Two methods are adopted one the empirical models, one is using all of 1,495 households; the other is sorting the electricity consumption by the low-to-medium-high to analyze individually. Furthermore, this study also used quantile regression for analysis.
According to the generally linear regression analysis and quantile regression analysis, the number of high electricity consumption and usage rate appliances, as well as water and garbage cleaning fees show that there is a significant positive relationship with the electricity consumption from the generally linear regression analysis and quantile regression analysis, which means that the replacement of high electricity consumption and usage rate appliances should be a more effective measure for energy-saving. It also responds to the intention of energy-saving appliances subsidies by government; Besides, the amount of the water and garbage cleaning fees implies Besides, the amount of the water and garbage cleaning fees implies the length of staying home time, which indicates that outdoor food sharing or summer cool sharing activities are able to save energy as well. In conclude, the results of this study can provide a reference to the household energy saving policy planning for government.

參考文獻
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