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研究生：	何柏閔 Vo Minh Huy
論文名稱：	Development of An Adaptive Risk Assessment Model for Large - Scale Infrastructure Projects
指導教授：	楊智斌
口試委員:
學位類別：	博士 Doctor
系所名稱：	工學院 - 土木系營建管理博士班 Ph.D. Program in Construction Management, Department of Civil Engineering
論文出版年：	2025
畢業學年度：	113
語文別：	英文
論文頁數：	151
中文關鍵詞：	風險因素、風險評估、基礎建設、湄公河三角洲、利害關係人觀點、廢水處理廠
外文關鍵詞：	Risk factors, Risk assessment, ARAM-LSIP, Infrastructure projects, Mekong Delta, Stakeholder perceptions
相關次數：	點閱：21 下載：0
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基礎建設專案對於環境永續、社會經濟成長與社會福祉具有關鍵性影響。這些專案本質上是複雜的大規模作業，具有施工期長、程序繁瑣、資金密集、環境變化大及多方利害關係人等特性。在越南湄公河三角洲，因材料短缺、地質鬆軟與因全球氣候變遷所導致的海平面上升等額外挑戰，更加複雜了專案的執行。因此，大型區域性基礎建設專案，特別是污水處理廠的EPC專案（EPC-WWTP）以及高速公路建設，面臨影響成本、進度、品質與安全的重大風險。儘管文獻中已有許多風險評估（RA）方法，但這些方法並不適用於位於環境敏感區域的大型基礎建設專案（LSIP）。
本研究透過對湄公河三角洲基礎建設專案的實證研究，發展出一套針對大型基礎建設專案的調適性風險評估模型（ARAM-LSIP），以EPC-WWTP及高速公路專案作為分析的個案。該模型的通用架構包含四個主要階段：(1)初步風險辨識、(2)資料收集與質性分析、(3)量化風險分析、(4)模型驗證，以確保本研究所發展之進階風險評估模型具備全面性與系統性。研究結果指出，根據利害關係人的觀點，最關鍵的風險因素為「土地徵收與補償挑戰」，此因素在兩個專案類型中皆為最重大風險。在EPC-WWTP專案中，「專案投資程序複雜且審批冗長」是第二重要的風險；而在高速公路專案中，「材料價格波動」則為主要因素。此外，風險因素分類顯示，在高速公路專案中「商業及自然環境風險」最為關鍵，而在EPC-WWTP專案中則以「不可預見條件及其他相關風險」為主，兩者結果亦呈現一定程度相似性。
本研究之結果凸顯湄公河三角洲的獨特挑戰，包括材料短缺、價格不穩定與地質條件不確定等問題。而本研究所發展並驗證的風險評估模式，為類似大型基礎建設專案的風險評估提供完整且具調適性的基礎，並可引導專案利害關係人系統性地識別與正確評估風險，促進掌握決策與有效風險緩解策略的制定。此外，研究成果也有助於促進利害關係人協作、監管改善與潛在政策改革。本研究之主要建議包括：靈活的土地徵收政策與簡化補償流程、契約中的價格調整機制，以及於早期階段即納入利害關係人參與，以主動因應監管與環境相關問題。本研究所辨識出的風險因素與風險評估架構也為未來的量化分析奠定基礎，促進對風險相互關係的深入理解，並實施及時的對策。未來研究可進一步探討風險應對機制，以增強風險緩解策略的整體成效。

Infrastructure projects are crucial for environmental sustainability, socioeconomic growth, and societal well-being. These projects are inherently complex, large-scale operations, extended construction durations, intricate processes, high financial intensities, dynamic environments, and multiple stakeholders. In Vietnam's Mekong Delta, additional challenges such as material shortages, soft ground conditions, and rising sea levels, exacerbated by global climate change, further complicate project execution. Consequently, large-scale regional infrastructure projects, particularly engineering, procurement, and construction of wastewater treatment plants (EPC-WWTPs) and highways, face significant risks affecting cost, schedule, quality, and safety concerns.
Although numerous risk assessment (RA) methods exist in the literature, they are not well suited for large-scale infrastructure projects (LSIP) in environmentally sensitive regions. This research develops an adaptive risk assessment model for large-scale infrastructure projects (ARAM-LSIP) through an empirical study of infrastructure projects in the Mekong Delta, using EPC-WWTP and highway projects as representative cases. The generic proposed framework consists of four key phases: (1) Initial Risk Identification, (2) Data Collection and Qualitative Analysis, (3) Quantitative Risk Analysis, and (4) Model Validation, ensuring a comprehensive and systematic approach to developing an advanced RA model for large-scale Mekong Delta infrastructure projects.
Findings from this study highlight the most critical risk factors based on stakeholder perceptions. Across both case studies, “challenges in land acquisition and compensation” emerge as the most significant risk. In EPC-WWTP projects, “complex procedures and lengthy approval of project investments” represent the second most critical risk, whereas in highway projects, “material price fluctuations” are a major concern. Moreover, risk factor categorization reveals that “commercial and natural environment risks” are the most critical in highway projects, while “unforeseen conditions and others-related risks” dominate in EPC-WWTP projects; this exposes similar outcomes across both circumstances.
These findings underscore the unique challenges of the Mekong Delta, characterized by material shortages, price instability, and unpredictable soft ground conditions. Notably, the RA framework developed in this study, particularly the validated process, provides a robust and adaptable foundation for assessing project risks in similar LSIP. The proposed approach guides project stakeholders in systematically identifying and correctly evaluating risks, facilitating informed decision-making and effective risk mitigation strategies.
Furthermore, the outcomes contribute to stakeholder collaboration, regulatory enhancements, and potential policy reforms. Key recommendations include flexible land acquisition policies and streamlined compensation processes, price adjustment mechanisms in contracts, and early stakeholder engagement to proactively address regulatory and environmental concerns. The identified risk factors and an RA framework lay the groundwork for future quantitative analyses, enabling a deeper understanding of risk interdependencies and the implementation of timely countermeasures. Future research may explore risk response mechanisms to further enhance the overall effectiveness of risk mitigation efforts.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT        i
摘要        iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS    iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS    v
LIST OF FIGURES    x
LIST OF TABLES    xi
ABBREVIATIONS    xii
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION    1
1    Research Background    1
1.1 The Case of the Mekong Delta Region    2
1.2 Previous Work and Knowledge Gap Identification    4
2    Problem Statement    5
3    Research Aim and Objectives    6
4    Scopes and Limitations of the Research    7
5    Thesis Outline    7
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW    9
1    Concept of Risk and Uncertainty    9
2.1 Definition of Risks    9
2.2 Definition of Uncertainty    10
2    Risks and Project Objectives    11
3    Risk Management Process    11
3.1 Risk Management Planning    13
3.2 Risk Identification    13
3.1.1    Risk Identification Tools and Techniques    13
3.2.1    Risk Classification    18
3.3 Risk Assessment    18
3.3.1 Qualitative Risk Analysis    19
3.3.2 Quantitative Risk Analysis    21
4.4 Risk Response    35
4.4.1 Risk Avoidance    35
4.4.2 Risk Transference    35
4.4.3 Risk Mitigation    36
4.4.4 Risk Acceptance    36
4.5 Risk Monitoring and Control    36
4.5.1 Technical Performance Analysis    37
4.5.2 Reserve Analysis    37
4.5.3 Risk Audits    37
4    Risk Assessment in Different Infrastructure Contexts    37
4.1 Risk Characteristics in Mekong Delta Infrastructure Projects    37
4.2 Levels of Risk in Infrastructure Projects    38
4.3 Risk Assessments for EPC Projects    39
4.4 Risk Assessments for Highway Projects    39
5    Research Gaps and Conceptual Framework Development    40
6    Summary    41
CHAPTER 3: MODEL DEVELOPMENT DESIGN    42
1    Model Development Design    42
1.1 Phase 1: Initial Risk Identification    42
1.2 Phase 2: Data Collection and Qualitative Analysis    42
1.3 Phase 3: Quantitative Risk Analysis    44
1.3.1 Relative Important Index    44
1.3.2 Exploratory Factor Analysis    45
1.3.3 Mean Score Value    45
1.3.4 Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Approach    45
1.4 Phase 4: Model Validation    46
1.4.1 Expert Judgment and Validation    46
1.4.2 Focus Group Discussion    47
1.4.3 Delphi Method and KAMET Principle    47
2    Model Application in Different Infrastructure Project Types    48
3    Summary of Chapter 3    49
CHAPTER 4: CASE EXAMINATION 1 – EPC-WWTP PROJECTS    50
1    Introduction    50
2    Literature Review    51
2.1    Project Life Cycle for Risk Management    51
2.2    Methods for Risk Assessment    51
3    Research Significance    52
4    Research Methodology    53
4.1    Risk Factor Refinement Process    55
4.2    Questionnaire Design and Respondent Selection    55
4.3    Statistical Techniques for Risk Analysis    58
5    Risk Assessment Outcomes    58
5.1    Questionnaire Response and Demographic    58
5.2    Reliability and Prioritization of Risk Factors    59
5.3    Consensus Analysis Using Spearman’s Correlation    61
5.4    Analyzing Risk Factors through Factor Analysis    62
6    Validation and Discussions    64
6.1    Validation through Focus Group Discussion and the Delphi Method    64
6.2    Critical Risk Factors Discussion    66
6.2.1    Challenges in Preparatory Projects    66
6.2.2    Adjustment in Legal Frameworks and Land Acquisition Constraints    67
6.2.3    Stakeholders’ Collaboration and Management Skills    67
6.2.4    Challenges in Contractor Performance    68
6.2.5    Navigating Bureaucratic System    68
6.2.6    Managing Unforeseen and Miscellaneous Risks    69
6.2.7    Operation and Maintenance Challenges    69
6.3    Risk Assessment Process for Complicated EPC Projects    70
7    Summary of Key Findings and Practical Implications    70
7.1    Key Findings    70
7.2    Practical Implications    71
CHAPTER 5: CASE EXAMINATION 2 – HIGHWAY PROJECTS    72
1    Introduction    72
2    Literature Review    73
2.1    Growth and Challenges in Vietnam’s Construction Sector    73
2.2    Risk Management for Highway Projects    74
2.2.1    Definition and Phases of Risk Management    74
2.2.2 Challenges in Recent Research on Risk Management for Highway Projects    74
2.3    Risk Management in Vietnam’s Highway Projects    74
2.3.1    Context–Specific Risk Assessment Needs    74
2.3.2    Challenges in the Mekong Delta Region    75
2.3.3 Government Policy and Private Sector Challenges    75
2.4    Risk Assessment Using Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Approach    75
2.4.1    Current Risk Assessment Methods    75
2.4.2    Fuzzy Set Theory and Its Advantages    76
2.4.3 Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Approach and Stakeholder Perception    76
3    Research Methodology    77
4    Data Collection and FSE Analysis    79
4.1    Key Risk Factors Identification    79
4.2    Questionnaire Survey and Sample Size Determination    80
4.3    Statistical Analysis and Mean Score Analysis    82
4.4    Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Analysis    83
4.4.1 Determination of Weightings for CRFs and PRGs    83
4.4.2 Determination of Membership Function for Each CRF    84
4.4.3 Determination of Membership Functions of CRFs (Level 3)/ PRGs (Level 2)    84
4.4.4 Determination of Membership Functions of PRGs (Level 2)/ Dimension (Level 1)    85
4.4.5 Risk Indicator for Frequency, Severity, and Overall Risk Level (ORL)    87
4.5    FSE Analysis by Python    87
5    Research Outcomes and Findings    90
6    Model Validation    91
7    Findings and Discussions    92
7.1    Essential Risks Identification    92
7.2    Discussions on Primary Risk Groups    93
7.2.1    PRG 1 - Commercial and Natural Environment Risks    93
7.2.2    PRG 2 - Policy and Regulation Imperfection Risks    94
7.2.3    PRG 3 - Owners – Related Risks    95
7.2.4    PRG 4 - Contractors – Related Risks    96
7.2.5    PRG 5 - Consultants – Related Risks    97
7.3    Discussions on Implementing the Proposed Risk Assessment Model    97
8    Summary of Key Findings, Theoretical Contributions, and Implications    98
8.1    Key Findings    98
8.2    Theoretical Contributions    98
8.3    Implications    99
CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS    101
1    Conclusions    101
2    Contributions    102
2.1 Theoretical Contributions    102
2.2 Practical Contributions    103
3    Implications    104
4    Limitations and Future Research Directions    105
4.1 Limitations    105
4.2 Future Research Directions    106
REFERENCES    108
LIST OF PUBLICATIONS    125
APPENDIX        126


                                

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