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研究生： 鄭凱天
Kai-Tien Cheng
論文名稱： 東亞大氣年際變化之研究與模擬
指導教授： 曾仁佑
Ren-Yow Tzeng
口試委員:
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 地球科學學院 - 大氣物理研究所
Graduate Institute of Atmospheric Physics
畢業學年度： 93
語文別： 中文
論文頁數： 116
中文關鍵詞： 年際變化 、ENSO
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    • 本研究使用NCAR CCM3模式來進行AMIP 2式的模擬以研究大氣的年際變化。模式的空間解析度為T42，積分時間自1981年11月到2003年1月。使用週平均及月平均海溫分別做一組的模擬，目的是要探討不同海溫時間解析度對大氣年際變化的影響。透過模擬及觀測的年際變化的分析，可以了解CCM3在東亞地區的模擬能力以及使用週平均海溫是否會影響模式的模擬能力。
    在暖事件期間，由東亞卅西太平洋區域上、下對流層的流函數距平可以發現，觀測場及兩組模擬場的空間型態均相當接近，主要的特徵模式都有掌握到。其主要特徵如下：在上對流層的(1)貝加爾湖有西風脊距平、(2)華南有負流函數距平以及在(3)日本和印度西方有正流函數距平；在下對流層則有：(1)貝加爾湖西風脊距平、(2)華南槽距平及(3)西北太平洋反氣旋﹝包括菲律賓及日本反氣旋﹞距平。儘管在暖事件期間，模式的空間型態很接近觀測場，但是因為模式上對流層的太平洋反氣旋加強，所以華南負流函數距平的強度及範圍皆比觀測場弱。
    在冷事件期間，由上及下對流層距平流場也可以發現，兩組模擬的距平型態也大致與觀測場相似。觀測及兩組模擬的上對流層特徵為：(1)貝加爾湖為東風槽﹝氣旋﹞距平、(2)華南的負流函數距平強度減弱、(3)日本及印度西方的正流函數距平增強；下對流層的特徵則是：(1)貝加爾湖處的東風槽距平、(2)華南的氣旋距平、以及(3)菲律賓的氣旋及日本的反氣旋距平。使用月平均海溫的模擬，在冷事件時低層大氣在亞洲高緯度區域的年際變化有大區域呈現和觀測場互為反相位的情形，但使用週平均海溫的模擬則可使反相位的範圍縮小。
    另外，使用月平均及週平均海溫的模擬差異方面，透過分析冷及暖事件的空間型態後發現，大致上使用不同海溫模擬的空間型態是相當接近。但是，週平均海溫可以提高在緯度50∘N處的季節尺度以下的擾動的模擬能力，所以緯度50∘N的阿留申低壓年際變化及亞洲陸地部分的掌控能力比使用月平均好，前述的現象在冷事件時比較明顯。
    由點對點時間相關分析可以發現，在東亞大陸、日本及印度等地區的上及下對流層，在海溫異常年時流函數的時間相關係數高於正常年，主要是因為在赤道海溫距平年時海溫對這些地區的作用力增強。同樣的，分析流函數時間相係數的空間分佈，可以發現在東亞、日本及印度等地區，週平均海溫組提高相關係數的區域比月平均組大。由赤道海溫事件時的距平場及相關分析可以知道，週平均海溫確實使模式在年際變化方面的模擬能力略微提高，以冷赤道海溫距平事件改善的程度最為明顯。

    摘要 … … … …i 致謝 … … … …iii 目錄 … … … …iv 圖、表目 … … … …vi 第一章　緒論 … … … …1 1.1　前言 … … … …1 1.2　文獻回顧 … … … …5 1.3　論文結構 … … … …10 第貳章　資料及分析方法 … … … …11 2.1　模式簡介及設定說明 … … … …11 2.1.1　物理參數化 … … … …12 2.1.1.1　擴散 … … … …12 2.1.1.2　雲量參數化 … … … …12 2.1.1.3　輻射參數化 … … … …13 2.1.1.4　地表通量過程 … … … …15 2.1.1.5　大氣邊界層﹝垂直擴散﹞ … … … …16 2.1.1.6　對流調節 … … … …17 2.1.2　模式設定 … … … …18 2.1.2.1　基本天文常數設定 … … … …18 2.1.2.2　空間、時間解析度 … … … …18 2.1.2.3　初始及邊界資料 … … … …19 2.1.3　觀測資料 … … … …19 2.2　資料處理 … … … …19 第參章　冬季及夏季氣候平均 … … … …21 3.1　地表溫度 … … … …21 3.2　海平面氣壓 … … … …23 3.3　850百帞環流場﹝風場及流函數﹞ … … … …24 3.4　300百帞環流場﹝風場及流函數﹞ … … … …26 3.5　850百帞輻散場﹝輻散風場和速度位﹞ … … … …27 3.6　200百帞輻散場﹝輻散風場和速度位﹞ … … … …28 3.7　降水 … … … …29 3.8　小結 … … … …29 第肆章　年際變化 … … … …31 4.1　地表溫度 … … … …31 4.2　850百帞環流場﹝風場及流函數﹞ … … … …34 4.3　300百帞環流場﹝風場及流函數﹞ … … … …39 4.4　輻散、垂直運動和降水場 … … … …45 4.5　降水分佈及小結 … … … …46 第伍章　相關分析 … … … …49 5.1　正常年距平時間相關 … … … …49 5.2　暖事件距平時間相關 … … … …50 5.3　冷事件距平時間相關 … … … …51 5.4　小結 … … … …51 第陸章　結論與未來展望 … … … …52 參考文獻 … … … …56 圖表 … … … …61

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