有多重改變點發生的情形下，分析臺灣東部花蓮附近地區的地震資料，試
著找出能夠適當解釋地震活動的模型。在卜瓦松過程模型中，利用數值的
計算方法，尋找改變點可能發生的位置。在點過程模型中，利用 Green
(1995) 所提出的可逆跳躍馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法 (Reversible Jump
Markov Chain Monte Carlo)，模擬改變點發生的個數、位置以及模型中
的參數。並以貝氏因子以及 BIC 法則選擇較適當的模型。

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