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研究生： 艾亞傑
Eduardo Enrique Arias
論文名稱： 評估倂網型太陽光電電廠在宏都拉斯的可行性
Pre-feasibility assessment of a grid-connected hotovoltaic power plant in Honduras
指導教授： 吳俊諆
Jiunn-Chi Wu
口試委員:
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 工學院 - 國際永續發展碩士在職專班
International Environment Sustainable Development Program
畢業學年度： 99
語文別： 英文
論文頁數： 88
中文關鍵詞： 宏都拉斯 、太陽能 、RETSreen 、太陽光電 、可行性評估
外文關鍵詞： Honduras, Solar Energy, RETSreen, Feasibility Assessment, Photovoltaic
相關次數： 點閱：9  下載：0 
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    • 本論文的目地在以技術、環境和經濟面向來評估在宏都拉斯設置併網型太陽光電（PV）電廠的可行性。本篇採用美國航空太空總署的地面氣象和太陽能計畫(SSE)和太陽能和風能資源評估計畫(SWERA)來蒐集在宏都拉斯的月平均每日總日照量和日照時數的數據。此日照資源可作為建議設置一座1.13 MW的併網型PV電廠的發電來源。
    建議安裝PV電廠地點為宏都拉斯內最佳太陽能潛力的區域（北緯13°18''，西經87°12''），此地區平均日照量為5.62 kWh/d/m2，平均日照時數為7.6 h/d。估計PV電廠需設置4,810個PV模組，佔地約0.96公頃。本文採用丸岡提出的方法（2008）來選擇目前市場最符合成本效益的PV模組。
    本文用RETScreen模擬軟體，透過發電量性能分析、財務分析和溫室氣體排放量分析，以評估PV電廠的可行性。分析結果顯示容量因子為23.5%的電廠的年發電量為2,329 MWh。此外本文也做了財務指標評估，包括內部報酬率（IRR）、靜態投資回收期（SPP）、淨現值（NPV）、效益費用比（B-C ratio）和能源生產成本（EPC）都指出在宏都拉斯發展PV電廠的有利條件。敏感度分析顯示電力輸出率是影響本計劃穫利能力最敏感的變數，為了讓本計劃具有相當投資吸引力，建議購回電價為US$ 0.242/kWh。從環境保護觀點來看，此PV電廠在宏都拉斯一年的發電量可減少1,855噸的CO2，相當於減少4,314桶原油的消耗量。

    The goal of this thesis is to evaluate the pre-feasibility of a grid-connected PV power plant in Honduras, by considering the well-being of the technical, economical and environmental aspects of the project. This thesis utilizes monthly average daily global solar radiation and sunshine-hour data from NASA Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) through the Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment Programme (SWERA) in Honduras. Evaluation of PV systems as an electricity generation source for Honduras was assessed utilizing a proposed 1.13 MW grid-connected PV power plant.
    It is proposed to locate the PV power plant within the region with the best solar energy potential in Honduras (13°18'' North and 87°12'' West). This region has an average global solar radiation value of 5.62 kWh/day/m2, and average sunshine-hour value of 7.6 hours/day. It is estimated that the potential PV power plant would require 4,810 PV modules, covering an approximate area of 0.96 hectares. Methodology described in Maruoka (2008) is adopted in this study to select the most cost-effective PV module from those available on the market.
    The pre-feasibility assessment of the proposed PV power plant is evaluated using RETScreen simulation software, through the performance of an energy production analysis, financial analysis and GHG emissions analysis. Initial results showed an annual electricity generation of 2,329 MWh, with a capacity factor of 23.5%. Financial indicators calculated, such as internal rate of return, simple payback period, net present value, benefit-cost ratio and energy production cost, indicated favorable conditions for the development of a PV power plant in Honduras. The sensitivity analysis shows that electricity export rate is the most sensitive variable which affects the profitability of the project. A feed in tariff rate of US$ 0.242/kWh is recommended to make the project economically and financially attractive. From the environmental point of view, it was found that a minimum of 1,855 tons of CO2, equivalent to 4,314 barrels of not consumed crude oil, can be avoided annually in Honduras by commissioning of the proposed PV power plant.

    Abstract i Chinese Abstract (中 文 摘 要) ii Acknowledgements iii Table of Content iv List of Tables vi List of Figures vii Acronyms viii CHAPTER 1: Introduction 1 1.1 Research Motivation 1 1.2 Objective of the Study 2 1.3 Thesis Outline 3 1.4 Thesis Limitations 5 CHAPTER 2: Research Background 6 2.1 Photovoltaic Technology 6 2.2 Current Market and Trends of Photovoltaic 8 2.3 Literature Review 12 2.3.1 Large Scale PV System 12 2.3.2 Viability of grid-connected PV power plants 15 2.4 Honduras Profile and its Energy Issues 18 2.4.1 Honduras Profile 18 2.4.2 Energy Sector Issues 19 2.4.3 Electricity Sector Analysis 20 2.5 Solar Energy in Honduras 22 2.5.1 Solar Resource 22 2.5.2 Benefits and Opportunities of Photovoltaic 25 CHAPTER 3: Methodology 27 3.1 Methodology Framework 27 3.2 Data Collection 28 3.3 Selection of cost-effective PV module 29 3.4 RETScreen Clean Energy Project Analysis Software 30 3.5 Feasibility Assessment 34 CHAPTER 4: Pre-Feasibility Assessment 35 4.1 Technical Feasibility Assessment 35 4.1.1 Site Location and Land Requirement 35 4.1.2 Selection of the PV Module 36 4.1.3 Selection of the Inverter 37 4.1.4 Balance of System 37 4.1.5 Module Mounting Configuration 38 4.1.6 Energy Production and Capacity Factor Calculation 40 4.1.7 Validation of the Energy Production Model Results 42 4.2 Financial Feasibility Assessment 44 4.2.1 Initial Costs 44 4.2.2 Financial Parameters 46 4.2.3 Periodical Costs 47 4.2.4 Financial Feasibility Simulation 47 4.2.5 Financial Feasibility Indicators 48 4.2.6 Financial Assessment Results 49 4.3 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment 50 4.4 Sensitivity Analysis Assessment 51 4.4.1 Possible Scenarios 54 CHAPTER 5: Conclusions and Recommendations 56 5.1 Conclusions 56 5.2 Summary of Contributions 57 5.3 Recommendations and Future Research 58 References 59 APPENDIX A: Energy Balance and CO2 Emissions in Honduras 2009 62 APPENDIX B: PV Module Data Survey 64 APPENDIX C: Methodology by Maruoka 65 APPENDIX D: RETScreen model worksheets 67 APPENDIX E: PV module detail data sheet 71 APPENDIX F: Inverter technical data sheet 72 APPENDIX G: World''s largest PV power plants 73 APPENDIX H: PV Module and Inverter Survey 74

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