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研究生： 柯萊恩
Ryan Mathias Cadle
論文名稱： 節能分析─以加勒比海國家為例
An Analysis of Energy Efficiency. A Case Study of Caribbean Countries
指導教授： 梁啟源
Chi-Yuan Liang
口試委員:
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 工學院 - 國際永續發展碩士在職專班
International Environment Sustainable Development Program
論文出版年： 2014
畢業學年度： 102
語文別： 英文
論文頁數： 134
中文關鍵詞： 能源密集度 、能源消耗 、能源效率 、電價
外文關鍵詞： Energy Intensity, Energy Consumption, Energy Efficiency, Electricity Price
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    • 能源相關產業在加勒比海諸島扮演了越來越重要的角色。能源消耗與GDP決定了一個地區的經濟成長。這份研究以多元線性迴歸( Multiple Linear Regression )呈現了影響加勒比海島12個國家在2000-2010年能源消耗的因素。以世界銀行所定義的薪資基礎，這些國家被分成三個類別，高所得國家，中所得國家，與低所得國家。而能源密集度與電價、人口，GDP電力密集度與電價，電力密集度與人口、GDP，這些要素間的關係也以排列相關係數( Spearmans Rank Correlation)來分析。
    遞迴分析( regression analysis ) 顯示出在高所得的國家電價與GDP會影響電力消耗，而電力密集度則是深受電價與人口影響。在中所得國家電價影響了電力消耗，而電價與人口則會影響電力密集度。在高所得的國家電價與GDP/capita 影響了整體的能源消耗，能源密集度則深受電價與人口影響。而且，從中所得國家顯示的結果來看，電價影響了整體的能源消耗，而能源密集度則深受電價與人口影響。低所得國家未被討論的原因是因為得出的結果並不良好。
    排列相關係數( Spearman’s Rank Correlation )也顯示出電價與電力密集度、能源密集度間是負相關。而電力密集度、能源密集度則是和人口與GDP間都有正相關。可見能源的價格對於能源／電力密集度的水平有著深遠的影響。這結果顯示出能源保存的政策確實有必要被實施以改善能源效率。

    The role of energy sector in the Caribbean is becoming increasingly important. Energy consumption and GDP are vital components determining economic growth in the region. Energy intensity levels are relatively high; consequently, this research sought to carry out Multiple Linear Regression in twelve Caribbean countries from 2000-2010 to determine what factors affect energy consumption. Based on income levels defined by World Bank, the countries are divided into three categories, high income, middle income and low income. Also the relationship between energy intensity and electricity price, energy intensity and population, energy intensity and GDP electricity intensity and electricity price, electricity intensity and population, electricity intensity and GDP was analyze using Spearman’s Rank Correlation.
    Regression analysis showed that in high income countries electricity price and GDP affects electricity consumption and electricity intensity are influenced by electricity price and population. Middle income countries results showed that electricity price affects electricity consumption and electricity intensity in this income group is affected by electricity price and population. Results showed that electricity price and GDP/capita affects total primary energy consumption and energy intensity is affected by electricity price and population in high income countries. Furthermore, results from middle income countries showed that electricity price influences total primary energy consumption and energy intensity is affected by electricity price and population. Results for low income countries was not discussed due to a small degree of freedom; consequently, producing undesirable outcomes.
    Results obtained from the Spearman’s rank correlation showed that electricity price have a negative relationship with electricity intensity and energy intensity. Also electricity intensity and energy intensity exhibited positive correlation with both population and GDP. Energy price shows to have a profound impact on energy/electricity intensity levels. The results indicates that energy conservation policies need to be implemented in these countries to improve energy efficiency.

    中文摘要 i Abstract ii Acknowledgement iii Table of Contents iv List of Figures viii List of Tables x List of Acronyms and Abbreviations xii CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Importance of Study 1 1.2 Research Purpose and Objectives 2 1.3 Research Scope 2 1.4 Research Difficulties and Limitation 3 1.5 Thesis Organization 3 CHAPTER II. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 5 2.1 Sustainable Development and Energy Efficiency 5 2.2 Energy Consumption and Economic Growth 5 2.3 Concept of Energy Intensity 6 2.4 Energy Intensity Indicators and Policy 7 2.4 Types of Energy Intensity Indicators 8 2.4.1 Thermodynamic Indicators 8 2.4.2 Physical Energy Intensity Indicators 8 2.4.3 Economic Energy Intensity Indicators 9 2.5 Factors that Affect Energy Intensity 9 2.5.1 Energy Prices 10 2.5.2 Income 11 2.5.3 Population 11 2.5.4 Composition of an Economic Sector’s output (Structural Change) 11 2.5.5 Technological Change 11 2.6 Case Studies on Energy Intensity 12 2.6.1 United States 12 2.6.2 China 12 2.6.3 Latin American Countries 13 2.6.4 Northern Cyprus 14 2.7 Climate Change Frame work 14 2.8 World Wide Context of Climate Change 15 2.9 Impacts in the Near and Long-Term 18 2.10 Climate Change in the Caribbean 21 2.11 Sustainable Regional Initiatives to promote Energy Efficiency in the Caribbean 22 2.11.1 Regional Energy Action Plan 22 2.11.2 PetroCaribe 23 2.11.3 Caribbean Community Renewable Energy Development Programme 24 2.11.4 Global Sustainable Energy Islands Initiative 25 2.11.5 Other Initiatives in the Region 25 CHAPTER III. REFERENTIAL BACKGROUND 28 3.1 Caribbean General Facts 28 3.2 Geography, Climate and Environment 29 3.3 Demography of the Caribbean 30 3.4 Economy of the Caribbean 30 3.5 Energy in the Caribbean 35 3.6 Oil Production in the Caribbean 35 3.6.1 Trinidad and Tobago 35 3.6.2 Cuba 36 3.6.3 Belize 37 3.6.4 Barbados 38 3.7 Electricity in the Caribbean 39 3.8 Renewable Resources in the Caribbean Region 41 3.8.1 Wind Energy 42 3.8.2 Hydro 45 3.8.3 Geothermal 45 3.8.4 Solar 46 3.8.5 Biomass 48 3.9 Countries Profile 48 3.9.1 Barbados 48 3.9.2 Bahamas 49 3.9.3 St Kitts & Nevis 49 3.9.4 Trinidad & Tobago 50 3.9.5 Dominica 51 3.9.6 Grenada 52 3.9.7 Haiti 52 3.9.8 Jamaica 53 3.9.9 St Lucia 54 3.9.10 St. Vincent & the Grenadines 54 3.9.11 Guyana 55 3.9.12 Belize 56 2.9 Energy Policy Development in the Caribbean 57 CHAPTER IV. METHODOLGY 61 4.1 Research Objective and Framework 61 4.2 Data 63 4.3 Data Processing 63 4.3 Regression Model 63 4.4 Spearman’s Rank Correlation 65 CHAPTER V. RESULTS & DISCUSSION 66 5.1 Importance of Electricity Price/ Estimating Electricity Price 66 5.2 2000-2010 overview of Electricity Intensity in the Caribbean 71 5.3 Electricity Consumption Regression Estimates 75 5.3 Electricity Intensity Regression Estimates 80 5.4 Spearman’s Rank Correlation Estimates for Electricity Intensity vs Three Independent Variables 83 5.5 2000-2010 Overview of Energy Intensity in the Caribbean 85 5.6 Total Primary Energy Consumption Regression Estimates 89 5.7 Energy Intensity Regression Estimates 92 5.8 Spearman’s Rank Correlation Estimates for Energy Intensity vs Three Independent Variables 95 CHAPTER VI: CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATIONS 97 6.1 Conclusions 97 6.2. Recommendations 97 6.3 Future Study 98 Bibliography 99 Appendices 104 Appendix A1: IPCC’s Scenarios 104 Appendix A2: Classification of countries into Income Groups 105 Appendix A3: Governmental Ministries accountable for Energy in the CARICOM states. 106 Appendix B1: Middle Income Countries Regression with Three Variables 107 Appendix B2: Middle Income Countries Regression with Two Variables 107 Appendix B3: Previous results for Low Income Countries Regression on Electricity Consumption 108 Appendix B4: Previous results for Low Income Countries Regression on Electricity Intensity 109 Appendix B5: Previous results for High Income Countries Regression on Total Primary Energy Consumption. 110 Appendix B6: Previous results for Middle Income Countries Regression on Total Primary Energy Consumption. 111 Appendix B7: Low Income Countries Regression results for Total Primary Energy Consumption. 112 Appendix B8: Low Income Countries Regression results for Energy Intensity 113 Appendix C1: Calculation of Electricity Intensity 114 Appendix C2: Calculation of Total Primary Energy Consumption 115

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