本文是分析規模M=7.3的集集地震發生之後，其餘震序列的時間與空間分布。在此視餘震之發生為服從波氏分布的點過程。本文先就餘震時間衰退模型、餘震規模頻率模型、與合併二者而得的餘震之時間-規模模型分別討論，並且說明模型中重要參數所反映的集集餘震特性。此外，利用空間密度區域 ( denisity-grid )，以移動視窗方法探討不同空間中，模型重要參數的變化。最後，據此變化，分別在不同空間中配適時間-規模模型，並且計算大規模餘震在不同時間範圍內發生之機率。結果可提供短期預測餘震之發生。

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