| 研究生: |
黃鼎能 Ting-Nong Huang |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
台灣股市日內報酬特性與交易策略 The Characteristics of Intraday return and Trading Strategies in Taiwan |
| 指導教授: |
周雨田
Ray Chou |
| 口試委員: | |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 財務金融學系 Department of Finance |
| 畢業學年度: | 88 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 44 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 反向操作策略 、過度反應 、價格反轉 、日內資料 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Intraday data, Price reversal, Overreaction, Co |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:9 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
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過去已有許多文獻探討股票報酬的可預測性,並發展出許多投資策略,例如反向操作策略(Contrarian strategy)、動量操作策略(Momentum strategy)或技術分析;希望藉由報酬的可預測性來獲利。本文以台灣證券交易所編製的「台灣綜合股價指數」採樣股票為研究對象,探討日內資料形態。
由於台灣股市於開盤前三十分鐘即可進場下單,採集合競價制來決定開盤價與收盤價,其他交易時間則採連續競價方式。基於這種特殊交易的制度,台灣股市在開收盤時可能存在特殊形態。因此本文擬採用探討隔夜報酬與日內報酬之間的關連性,檢驗是否有日內價格反轉現象存在,並就其時間序列特性,進一步探討其成因。
本文研究上述樣本於民國86∼87年間的資料後發現:
(1)採樣股票在研究期間內隔夜報酬普遍為正,也即採樣股票普遍存有開高傾向(2)採樣股票明顯存在日內價格反轉現象,雖然個股普遍在開盤時呈現開高走勢,但是不論開高或開低,開盤後股價都會有一段修正期間,此一修正的方向平均而言均與隔夜報酬的走勢相反。換言之,開高(低)之後日內股價傾向走低(高)(3)指數反轉現象主要導因於個股的負自我相關性,如果以採樣股票建構一個相等權值指數,則指數本身也存在開盤後價格反轉修正的現象,但反轉幅度較小。這是因為個股間存在正向的橫斷面自我相關,會減弱指數本身的負向自我相關性(4)日內價格反轉現象在考慮稅賦的情況下無法進行套利,儘管本文發現採樣股票的反轉性極顯著,但是考慮稅賦限制後,採用Lo & MacKinlay(1990)的反向操作策略並無法獲取正的報酬,也即不存在套利空間;而所獲致的報酬中,主要來源為個股自身的負自我相關性。
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本國文獻
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