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研究生： 潘俊霖
Jyun-Lin Pan
論文名稱： 地震事件搜尋深度的變化對SDICAE進行強震預測的效能之影響
Influence of the Variation of Seismic Event Depth on the Efficiency of the Strong Earthquake Prediction Using SDICAE
指導教授： 李顯智
Hin-Chi Lei
口試委員:
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 工學院 - 土木工程學系
Department of Civil Engineering
論文出版年： 2021
畢業學年度： 109
語文別： 中文
論文頁數： 282
中文關鍵詞： 最強地震圓弧雙交叉 、地震事件搜尋深度
外文關鍵詞： the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes, seismic event depths
相關次數： 點閱：13  下載：0 
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    • 李顯智博士於2017年發表的文章中提及「最強地震圓弧雙交叉」的概念，而此種交叉型態可再分為最強地震圓弧雙凸交叉、最強地震圓弧凹凸交叉，其中最強地震圓弧雙凸交叉對於預測後續強震有較佳的成效，能有較高機率預測到短天期(70天內)發生之強震，本研究針對「最強地震圓弧雙交叉」深入探討，並利用不同地震事件搜尋深度及地震圓弧精度的參數條件進行分析，期望能找出能在短天期(70天內)擁有高機率預測出強震的參數。本研究採用李顯智博士自行開發之MATLAB程式ASICAE(Automatic Searcher of Intersections of Circular Arcs of Earthquake)進行分析，分析1981年至2016年間台灣地區不同參數所預測到的最強地震圓弧雙交叉案例。本研究發現，當使用地震事件搜尋深度為0公里至30公里，以及精度條件使用弧向誤差(ToLde)為0.13~ 0.15,徑向誤差(ToLRe)為0.012 ~ 0.016之組合，進行最強地震圓弧雙交叉的搜尋，會有較佳的強震預測成效，本研究團隊推測因極淺層地殼硬且脆的性質，或是極淺層地殼因靠近地表，圍束效應較弱，所以較易釋放出能量，此研究結果也間接證明最強地震圓弧雙交叉的力學意義，說明最強地震圓弧雙交叉之相關研究，在地震預測中是具有相當程度的參考價值。

    In his article published in 2017, Dr. Hin-Chi Lei proposed the concept of "the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes (SDICAE)", which can be further divided into the strongest double-convex intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes (SDCICAE) and the strongest concave-convex intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes (SCCICAE). SDCICAE is more effective in predicting strong earthquakes and has a higher hit rate of predicting strong earthquakes that occur within a short period (70 days). This study investigates SDICAE by using different parameters of seismic event depth and seismic arc accuracy in order to find parameters that have a high hit rate of strong earthquakes prediction within a short period of time. In this study, the MATLAB program ASICAE (Automatic Searcher of Intersections of Circular Arcs of Earthquakes), developed by Dr. Hin-Chi Lei, was used to analyze the SDICAEs obtained by different parameters in Taiwan between 1981 and 2016. In this study, we found that the combination of seismic event depths of 0 to 30 km and accuracy conditions (ToLde=0.13 ~ 0.15, ToLRe=0.012 ~ 0.016) for SDICAE resulted in better strong earthquake prediction. We hypothesized that the hard and brittle nature of the very shallow crust, or the weak confinement effect of the very shallow crust near the surface, makes it easier to release strong energy. The results of this study also indirectly prove the mechanical significance of SDICAE, indicating that the study of SDICAE has a considerable reference value in earthquake prediction.

    摘要 ............................................................................................................................................. i Abstract ....................................................................................................................................... ii 誌謝 ........................................................................................................................................... iii 目錄 ........................................................................................................................................... iv 圖目錄 ...................................................................................................................................... vii 表目錄 .................................................................................................................................... xvii 符號說明 ................................................................................................................................ xxii 一、緒論 .................................................................................................................................... 1 1-1研究動機 ...................................................................................................................... 1 1-2研究目的 ...................................................................................................................... 2 1-3研究內容概述 .............................................................................................................. 3 二、文獻回顧 ............................................................................................................................ 4 三、研究方法與內容 ................................................................................................................ 6 3-1地震目錄介紹 .............................................................................................................. 6 3-3地震圓弧分析方法 ...................................................................................................... 8 3-3-1地震圓弧之定義 .............................................................................................. 8 3-3-2地震圓弧之精度 ............................................................................................ 10 3-3-3地震圓弧之交叉 ............................................................................................ 11 3-3-4 ASICAE .......................................................................................................... 13 3-4研究內容 .................................................................................................................... 16 3-4-1研究範圍 ........................................................................................................ 16 3-4-2研究流程 ........................................................................................................ 18 3-4-3背景值 ............................................................................................................ 19 四、案例分析 .......................................................................................................................... 23 v 4-1地震事件搜尋深度0-30公里的SDICAE ............................................................... 25 4-2 地震事件搜尋深度0-70公里的SDICAE .............................................................. 55 4-3 地震事件搜尋深度0-110公里的SDICAE ............................................................ 61 4-4 地震事件搜尋深度30-70公里的SDICAE ............................................................ 67 4-5 地震事件搜尋深度70-110公里的SDICAE .......................................................... 67 五、資料統計與結果分析 ...................................................................................................... 68 5-1所有參數組合之相異最強地震圓弧雙交叉 ............................................................ 70 5-2 不同搜尋深度之命中率 ........................................................................................... 74 5-3不同精度組合之命中率 ............................................................................................ 84 5-3-1 固定de變更Re之最強地震圓弧雙凸交叉命中率 ................................... 84 5-3-2 固定de變更Re之最強地震圓弧凹凸交叉命中率 ................................... 90 5-3-3 固定Re變更de之最強地震圓弧雙凸交叉命中率 ................................... 96 5-3-4 固定Re變更de之最強地震圓弧凹凸交叉命中率 ................................. 104 5-3-5 所有精度組合之最強地震圓弧雙凸交叉命中率 ..................................... 112 5-3-6 所有精度組合之最強地震圓弧凹凸交叉命中率 ..................................... 114 5-4 更廣精度參數範圍下極淺層地震事件的SDICAE ............................................. 116 5-4-1 固定de變更Re .......................................................................................... 117 5-4-2 固定Re變更de .......................................................................................... 130 5-4-3 最佳精度判斷 ............................................................................................. 140 5-5 變更地震事件搜尋深度 ......................................................................................... 142 5-5-1 搜尋深度10公里至40公里 ..................................................................... 143 5-5-2 搜尋深度20公里至50公里 ..................................................................... 149 5-6 後續強震之探討 ..................................................................................................... 156 5-6-1 後續預測強震規模為6以上 ..................................................................... 157 5-6-2預測半徑70公里之後續強震分析 ............................................................ 163 5-6-3 後續強震之深度分佈 ................................................................................. 171 vi 5-7 最強地震圓弧雙交叉之圓形交叉 ......................................................................... 181 5-7-1 地震事件搜尋深度0-30公里 .................................................................... 182 六、結論 ................................................................................................................................ 194 參考文獻 ................................................................................................................................ 197 附錄一、案例圖示 ................................................................................................................ 200 附錄1-1 最強地震圓弧雙凸交叉案例圖示 ................................................................ 200 附錄1-2 最強地震圓弧凹凸交叉案例圖示 ................................................................ 215 附錄二、單一搜尋範圍 ........................................................................................................ 233 附錄2-1不同地震事件搜尋深度 ................................................................................. 233 附錄2-2最強地震圓弧雙凸交叉案例圖示(單圈) ...................................................... 238 附錄三、刪除極淺層地震事件擴增精度ToLde=0.15........................................................ 252 附錄3-1刪除ToLde=0.15後整體命中率 ................................................................... 252 附錄3-2強地震規模於100天內、70天內命中率 .................................................... 254

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