| 研究生: |
張立昕 Li-Shin Chang |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
應用集成方法之公司治理指標在財務危機預測:以美國上市公司為例 Corporate government indicators apply in financial distress problem based on ensemble method: taking US-listed Company for example |
| 指導教授: |
梁德容
Deron Liang |
| 口試委員: | |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
資訊電機學院 - 資訊工程學系 Department of Computer Science & Information Engineering |
| 論文出版年: | 2017 |
| 畢業學年度: | 106 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 78 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 公司治理指標 、財務危機預測 、集成方法 、機器學習 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Financial distress prediction (FDP), corporate governance indicator |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:6 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
財務危機預測一直以來都是一個重要的主題,吸引了世界各地的投資者以及學者的關注,從早期的統計學方法到現在的機器學習演算法,如何利用財務指標與其它有用的指標參數建出有效且準確的模型,更是一個被廣為討論的問題。我們過去曾使用台灣資料集証明財務指標加上公司治理指標當特徵,可以得到比較好的預測結果;但是在美國資料集底下,卻沒有這樣的趨勢。因為在美國資料集我們的公司治理指標搜集不多,所以本研究提出一個使用財務指標加上公司治理指標的stacking ensemble演算法,並且証實在特定的cost ratios底下,使用本實驗提出的演算法是更好的。
Financial distress prediction (FDP) is an important topic. There are many investors and researchers focus on this question, From statistical methods earlier to machine learning algorithm today, how to use financial ratios and other potential feature to build a better model is a wildly studied question. We have proved that build model by corporate governance indicator and financial ratios can improve performance in Taiwan dataset, but not in USA data set. For the reason we cannot collect as much corporate governance indicators as Taiwan dataset, we proposed a stacking ensemble algorithm by using financial ratios and corporate governance indicators, and prove that in specific cost ratios, this algorithm is a better way in FDP.
[1] P. J. Fitzpartrick, “A comparison of ratios of successful industrial enterprises with those of failed companies,” Journal of Accounting Research, pp. 598-605, 1932.
[2] W. H. Beaver, “Financial ratios as predictors of failure,” Journal of accounting research, pp. 71-111, 1966
[3] E. I. Altman, “Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy,” The journal of finance, vol. 23, pp. 589-609, 1968
[4] J. A. Ohlson, “Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy,” journal of accounting research, vol. 18, pp. 109-131, 1980.
[5] L. H. Chen and H. D. Hsiao, “Feature selection to diagnose a business crisis by using a real GA-based support vector machine: an empirical study,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 35, pp. 1145-1155, 2008
[6] Z. Hua, Y. Wang, X. Xu, B. Zhang, and L. Liang, "Predicting corporate financial distress based on integration of support vector machine and logistic regression," Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 33, pp. 434-440, 2007.
[7] K.-S. Shin, T. S. Lee, and H.-j. Kim, "An application of support vector machines in bankruptcy prediction model," Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 28, pp. 127-135, 2005.
[8] C.-H. Wu, G.-H. Tzeng, Y.-J. Goo, and W.-C. Fang, "A real-valued genetic algorithm to optimize the parameters of support vector machine for predicting bankruptcy," Expert systems with applications, vol. 32, pp. 397-408, 2007.
[9] D. West, "Neural network credit scoring models," Computers & Operations Research, vol. 27, pp. 1131-1152, 2000.
[10] L. Sun and P. P. Shenoy, "Using Bayesian networks for bankruptcy prediction: Some methodological issues," European Journal of Operational Research, vol. 180, pp. 738-753, 2007.
[11] H. Li, J. Sun, and J. Wu, "Predicting business failure using classification and regression tree: An empirical comparison with popular classical statistical methods and top classification mining methods," Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 37, pp. 5895-5904, 2010.
[12] K. Y. Tam and M. Y. Kiang, "Managerial applications of neural networks: the case of bank failure predictions," Management science, vol. 38, pp. 926-947, 1992.
[13] E. N. Ozkan-Gunay and M. Ozkan, "Prediction of bank failures in emerging financial markets: an ANN approach," Journal of Risk Finance, The, vol. 8, pp. 465-480, 2007.
[14] Jensen, M. C., and W. H. Meckling. 1976. Theory of the Firm:Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs and Ownership Structure, Journal of Financial Economics:305-360
[15] Shleifer, Andrei, and Robert W. Vishny. "A survey of corporate governance."The journal of finance 52.2 (1997): 737-783.
[16] Sun, Ji, et al. "Ownership, capital structure and financing decision: Evidence from the UK." The British Accounting Review (2015).
[17] Chen, Ming-Yuan. "Determinants of corporate board structure in Taiwan."International Review of Economics & Finance 32 (2014): 62-78.
[18] LIANG, Deron, et al. Financial ratios and corporate governance indicators in bankruptcy prediction: A comprehensive study. European Journal of Operational Research, 2016, 252.2: 561-572.
[19] 公司治理指標在財務危機預測: 以美國上市公司為例. 2016. PhD Thesis. National Central University.
[20] LEE, Tsun‐Siou; YEH, Yin‐Hua. Corporate governance and financial distress: Evidence from Taiwan. Corporate governance: An international review, 2004, 12.3: 378-388.
[21] WU, Jia-Ling. Do corporate governance factors matter for financial distress prediction of firms? Evidence from Taiwan. Unpublished master‟ s thesis, University of Nottingham, 2007.
[22] LIN, Feng-Yi; LIANG, Deron; CHU, Wing-Sang. The role of non-financial features related to corporate governance in business crisis prediction. Journal of Marine Science and Technology, 2010, 18.4: 504-513.
[23] PLATT, Harlan; PLATT, Marjorie. Corporate board attributes and bankruptcy. Journal of Business Research, 2012, 65.8: 1139-1143.
[24] J. Collier and R. Esteban, "Governance in the participative organisation: freedom, creativity and ethics," Journal of Business Ethics, vol. 21, pp. 173-188, 1999.
[25] Y.-H. Yeh and T. Woidtke, "Commitment or entrenchment?: Controlling shareholders and board composition," Journal of Banking & Finance, vol. 29, pp. 1857-1885, 2005.
[26] Q. Liang, P. Xu, and P. Jiraporn, "Board characteristics and Chinese bank performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, vol. 37, pp. 2953-2968, 2013.
[27] H. Berkman, R. A. Cole, and L. J. Fu, "Expropriation through loan guarantees to related parties: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, vol. 33, pp. 141-156, 2009.
[28] Y.-L. Cheung, C.-W. Chung, W. Tan, and W. Wang, "Connected board of directors: A blessing or a curse?," Journal of Banking & Finance, vol. 37, pp. 3227-3242, 2013.
[29] M. Jian and T. J. Wong, "Propping through related party transactions," Review of Accounting Studies, vol. 15, pp. 70-105, 2010.
[30] R. La Porta, F. Lopez‐de‐Silanes, and A. Shleifer, "Corporate ownership around the world," The journal of finance, vol. 54, pp. 471-517, 1999.
[31] LIN, Fengyi; LIANG, Deron; CHEN, Enchia. Financial ratio selection for business crisis prediction. Expert Systems with Applications, 2011, 38.12: 15094-15102.
[32] WOLPERT, David H. Stacked generalization. Neural networks, 1992, 5.2: 241-259.
[33] ZENKO, Bernard; TODOROVSKI, Ljupco; DZEROSKI, Saso. A comparison of stacking with meta decision trees to bagging, boosting, and stacking with other methods. In: Data Mining, 2001. ICDM 2001, Proceedings IEEE International Conference on. IEEE, 2001. p. 669-670.
[34] OPITZ, David W.; MACLIN, Richard. Popular ensemble methods: An empirical study. J. Artif. Intell. Res.(JAIR), 1999, 11: 169-198.
[35] GRACZYK, Magdalena, et al. Comparison of bagging, boosting and stacking ensembles applied to real estate appraisal. Intelligent information and database systems, 2010, 340-350.
[36] E. S. Pearson, W. S. Gosset, R. L. Plackett, and G. A. Barnard, Student: a statistical biography of William Sealy Gosset: Oxford University Press, USA, 1990.
[37] R. A. Fisher, "The use of multiple measurements in taxonomic problems," Annals of eugenics, vol. 7, pp. 179-188, 1936.
[38] R. A. Fisher and F. Yates, "Statistical tables for biological, agricultural and medical research," Statistical tables for biological, agricultural and medical research., 1949.
[39] J. Neter, W. Wasserman, and M. H. Kutner, Applied linear statistical models vol. 4: Irwin Chicago, 1996.
[40] LIANG, Deron, et al. A novel classifier ensemble approach for financial distress prediction. Knowledge and Information Systems, 2017, 1-26.
[41] Darrat, Ali F., Stephen Gray, and Yanhui Wu. "Does Board Composition Affect the Risk of Bankruptcy." Corporate Finance: Governance, Corporate Control and Organization eJournal, working paper, http://papers. ssrn. com/sol3/papers. cfm (2010).
[42] CHEN, Jin; WANG, Cheng; WANG, Runsheng. Using stacked generalization to combine SVMs in magnitude and shape feature spaces for classification of hyperspectral data. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 2009, 47.7: 2193-2205.