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研究生: 陳錦華
Jin-Hua Chen
論文名稱: 病例-對照研究之貝氏分析
Analysis of case-control studies using Bayesian approach
指導教授: 鄭光甫
Kuang-Fu Cheng
口試委員:
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 理學院 - 統計研究所
Graduate Institute of Statistics
畢業學年度: 93
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 97
中文關鍵詞: 交互作用勝算比病例-對照研究邏輯斯迴歸輪廓概似函數貝氏
外文關鍵詞: Bayesian, profile likelihood function, case-only design, odds ratio, interaction, case-control study, logistic regression
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  • 本文主要是在病例-對照研究下,利用貝氏分析的方法,討論危險因子(包括和基因相關之“致病基因"及非基因相關之“環境因子")及疾病的關係。我們欲利用和目前研究有高度相似性的歷史資料,當為我們的事前分配的訊息,引入power prior 當為事前分配,它可以將歷史資料的訊息納入。
    首先,討論在族群符合Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE)及條件獨立的假設下,研究:1.單一基因座及疾病之關係; 2 .單一基因座、環境因子和疾病之關係。以上兩情況下,在病例-對照研究的資料及假設條件下,如何建構模型,以得到概似函數?另外,如何引入power prior 當為事前分配?如此則能進行貝氏分析。此為我們討論的目標之一。
    再者,在一般化的情況下(不須在HWE 及條件獨立的假設),當危險因子(離散型變數或連續型變數離散化)的個數或類別很多時,則參數個數亦會增加,在估計上會遇到難以估計參數的問題;如何將我們沒有興趣的干擾參數消除,以簡化參數的個數,使得在貝氏分析的估計上能更有效率。
    以上兩的主題皆利用power prior,可視為歷史資料的概似函數,不但包含了歷史資料的訊息且也保留了資料的模型結構,在使用上是十分簡便的。


    目 錄 第一章 緒論 第一節 病例-對照研究回顧………………………………………………1 第二節 貝氏分析方法在病例-對照研究中之發展………………………5 第三節 以族群為基礎之病例-對照研究在遺傳學發展之地位…………8 第二章 在Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium 下之病例-對照研究之貝氏方法 第一節 Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium 介紹及在遺傳學中之重要性……10 第二節 事前分配及事後分配……………………………………………13 第三節 疾病、致病基因和環境因子之貝氏推論………………………18 第四節 Case-Only 設計之虛擬(pseudo)貝氏分析………………………23 第五節 冠狀動脈心臟病資料之貝氏分析………………………………25 第三章 一般病例-對照研究之虛擬貝氏分析 第一節 虛擬概似函數(pseudo likelihood function)…..…………………35 第二節 獨立條件下的虛擬貝氏分析……………………………………42 第三節 討論特例:單一二元暴露變數…………………………………44 第四節 事前分配可積分條件……………………………………………48 第五節 冠狀動脈心臟病及白血病相關資料之貝氏分析………………49 第四章 結論………………………………………………………………………55 參考資料…………………………………………………………………………58 附錄一……………………………………………………………………………63 附錄二……………………………………………………………………………74 附錄三……………………………………………………………………………77 附錄四……………………………………………………………………………88

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