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研究生: 林笨守
Ben-Shou Lin
論文名稱: 銀行利率敏感性分析-GARCH-M模型之應用
Interest Rate Sensitivity Analysis On Bank-A GARCH-M Model
指導教授: 蔡偉德
Wei-Der Tsai
陳禮潭
Lii-Tarn Chen
口試委員:
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 產業經濟研究所
Graduate Institute of Industrial Economics
畢業學年度: 96
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 36
中文關鍵詞: 銀行利率敏感性GARCH-M
外文關鍵詞: GARCH-M model, Bank, Interest Rate Sensitivity
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  • 本研究將探討長短期利率對銀行獲利的影響,在長期利率(台灣十年期公債利率與美國十年期公債利率)與短期利率(商業本票30、90、180天利率)影響下,上市金控與商業銀行利率敏感性,樣本研究期間開始自2002年8月21日到2008年3月31日止,共計日資料1389筆,資料來源主要為台灣經濟新報(TEJ)。
      考慮規模大小因素,將金融體系分成全體銀行、金控、商業銀行三個投資組合,採市值加權平均。銀行報酬率資料存在異質變異,採用GARCH-M模型描述條件變異數,以Stone(1974)二因子模型進行實證研究。
      初步研究發現,長期利率對金融機構為負相關,短期利率為正相關,加入政策效果後,發現不同投資組合下,考慮外在環境後,銀行有採取相關措施避險,使其利率風險下降。


    This study will explore the impact that the short and long-term interest rates risk changes on bank earnings. Under the influences of long-term interest rates (the 10-year bond interest rates in Taiwan and the U.S. 10-year bond interest rates) and short-term interest rates (30,90,180-day commercial paper interest rate),exploring SKFH listed commercial bank interest rates sensitivity. The sample period spans from August 21, 2002 to March 31, 2008. We use 1389 daily datas from Taiwan Economy Journal (TEJ) database.
    Consider the size of factors、the financial system will be divided into the Bank、Taishin、the three commercial banks investment portfolio、the weighted average market value of mining. Bank of return on existing heterogeneous information variation、using GARCH-M model described conditions variance、Stone (1974) two-factor model of empirical research.
    Preliminary study found that long-term interest rates on financial institutions to negative correlation is related to short-term interest rates. Adding the policy effect and found that under different investment portfolio, banks will consider the external environment and have taken measures related to hedge their interest rate risk decreased.

    目錄 中文摘要 i 英文摘要 ii 目錄 iii 圖目錄 v 表目錄 v 一、緒論 1 1-1  研究背景 1 1-2  研究動機與目的 1 1-3  研究流程 2 1-4  研究流程圖 3 二、理論基礎與文獻回顧 4 2-1  國外文獻 4 2-2  國內文獻 5 2-3  ARCH/GARCH模型 5 三、研究方法與樣本設計 7 3-1  模型介紹 7 3-2  統計檢定與統計方法 10 四、資料分析與結果 14 4-1  資料敘述 14 4-1-1研究範圍概述 14 4-1-2資料處理 14 4-2  實證步驟 16 4-3  實証結果 18 4-3-1單根檢定 18 4-3-2 OLS簡單回歸(Ordinary Least Squares Method) 20 五、結論 36 5-1  結論 36 參考文獻 37 一、中文參考文獻 37 二、英文參考文獻 37 附錄 39

    參考文獻
    一、中文參考文獻
    1. 楊奕農,「時間序列分析-經濟與財務上之應用」,初版,雙葉書廊,民國94年。
    2. 呂明珠,「利率變動對台灣上市銀行股票報酬及獲利之影響」,國立台灣大學財務金融學系,碩士論文,民國81年。
    3. 徐有維,「利率及利率波動對銀行股票超額報酬之影響-GARCH-M模型之應用」,國立高雄第一科技大學金融營運所,碩士論文,民國87年。
    4. 陳忠勤,「利率變動對銀行價值影響之研究」,國立中央大學企業管理系,碩士論文,民國81年。
    5. 葉純言,「上市銀行股票報酬之利率敏感性分析-二因子模型之實證研究」,淡江大學管理科學研究所,碩士論文,民國83年。
    6. 方文碩,「金融危機期間股票報酬風險貼水與貶值效果」,風險管理學報,第二卷第一期,第39-68頁,民國89年。
    7. 黃淑芳,「上市保險公司股票報酬之利率敏感性-台灣市場之實證 」,逢甲大學保險學系,碩士論文。
    二、英文參考文獻
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    6. Walter Enders,“Applied Econometric Time Series.” 2nd edition, Wiley,2004.
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    9. Engle, R.F., Lilien, D.M., Robins, R.P.. “Estimation Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The ARCH-M Model”, Econometrica, Vol.55, pp.391-407, 1987.
    10. Elyasiani E. and Mansur I. “Bank Stock Return Sensitivities to Long-term and Short-term Interest Rate: A Multivariate GARCH Approach ”,Managerial Finance,Vol.30,pp.32-55,2004.
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    13. Neuberger, J.A., “Interest Rate Risk at US Commercial Banks”, Working paper Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 1994.
    14. Lloyd, William P. and Richard A.Shick, “A Test of Stone’s Two-Index Model of Returns”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 12,pp.363-373,1977.
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    17. Stone, B.K. , “Systematic Interest Rate Risk in a Two-index Model of Returns”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, pp.709~721,1974.

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