跳到主要內容

簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 賴怡靜
Yi-Jing Lai
論文名稱: 黃金是否為避風港資產?-國際股市之實證分析
Is Gold a Safe Haven?-Evidence from International Stock Markets
指導教授: 高櫻芬
Yin-Feng Gau
口試委員:
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融學系
Department of Finance
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 58
中文關鍵詞: 黃金報酬股市報酬不確定性指標避險安全避風港
外文關鍵詞: Gold returns, Stock returns, Uncertainty index, Hedge, Safe haven
相關次數: 點閱:13下載:0
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • 本文研究期間為2000年至2020年,旨在探討當金融市場處於股價極端低落、市場不確定性高、以及危機期間等情況的時候,黃金分別對於澳洲、加拿大、法國、德國、義大利、日本、美國、英國,以及金磚五國的股市是否存在避險 (hedge) 關係以及安全避風港 (safe haven) 效果,並研究是否黃金報酬分別與已開發國家和開發中國家的股市報酬之間有不同的效果。本文採用STLFSI 2.0指數、VIX指數、與SKEW指數來衡量市場的不確定性。實證結果顯示黃金對於加拿大、以及金磚國家股市的避險和安全避風港的效果較弱。相較之下,在澳洲、法國、德國、義大利、日本、美國、英國這七個已開發國家中,黃金作為股市的避險以及安全避風港效果則普遍存在。此外,本文也發現在2010年歐洲主權公債危機以及2020年的COVID-19疫情爆發的期間,黃金對於各國股市皆不具有安全避風港效果。


    This thesis aims to investigate whether there is a hedge and a safe-haven effect between gold and the stock markets in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom and the BRICS, when the markets are in conditions with extremely low stock prices, high market uncertainty, and during financial crises. This thesis also studies whether gold returns have different relationships with stock market returns in developed countries and in developing countries. The sample period of this study is from 2000 to 2020. Considering the STLFSI 2.0 index, VIX index, and SKEW index to measure market uncertainty, the empirical results show evidence of weak hedge and weak safe-haven effects in stock markets in Canada and the BRICS countries. By contrast, strong hedge and safe-haven effects existed in stock markets of seven developed countries, namely, Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United States and the United Kingdom. Furthermore, the results also show that the safe-haven effects of gold does not exist during periods of the European sovereign debt crisis in 2010 and the COVID-19 in 2020.

    中文摘要 i 英文摘要 ii 誌謝 iii 目錄 iv 表目錄 v 圖目錄 v 第壹章 緒論 1 第貳章 文獻回顧 3 第一節 黃金的特性與黃金交易市場簡介 3 第二節 安全避風港 (Safe Haven) 與黃金報酬 4 第三節 市場不確定性與黃金報酬 5 第四節 黃金在已開發國家、金磚國家的角色差異 7 第五節 COVID-19疫情與黃金報酬 8 第參章 研究方法 10 第一節 研究樣本期間與資料來源 10 第二節 定義說明 11 第三節 實證模型 14 第肆章 實證結果 18 第一節 敘述統計與相關性分析 18 第二節 各國股市極端低落時,黃金對於股市的避險及安全避風港效果 19 第三節 市場不確定性極端高時,黃金對於股市的避險及安全避風港效果 21 第四節 在危機期間,黃金對於各國股市的避險及安全避風港效果 24 第伍章 結論 25 參考文獻 26 表目錄 表1變數資料 30 表2 敘述統計 31 表2-1敘述統計-各國股市報酬、黃金報酬 31 表2-2 敘述統計-不確定性指標 32 表3相關係數 33 表3-1相關係數-各國股市報酬與黃金報酬 33 表3-2 相關係數-不確定性指標 33 表4各國股市極端低落時,黃金作為股市的避險、避風港效果 34 表5以不確定性指標衡量市場波動時,黃金作為股市的避險、避風港效果 37 表5- 1 STLFSI 2.0 37 表5- 2 VIX 40 表5- 3 SKEW 42 表6 在危機期間黃金作為股市的避險、避風港效果 44 圖目錄 圖1 英國倫敦黃金價格走勢圖 47 圖2 各國股價走勢圖 48 圖3 不確定性指標走勢圖 49

    Ahmed, R. (2020). Global Flight-to-Safety Shocks. Available at SSRN 3711790.
    Akhtaruzzaman, M., Boubaker, S., Lucey, B. M., & Sensoy, A. (2020). Is gold a hedge or safe haven asset during COVID–19 crisis? Available at SSRN 3621358.
    AlAli, M. S. (2020). SAFE HAVEN ASSETS: ARE THEY STILL SAFE DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC PERIOD? European Journal of Economic and Financial Research.
    Baig, A. S., Butt, H. A., Haroon, O., & Rizvi, S. A. R. (2021). Deaths, panic, lockdowns and US equity markets: The case of COVID-19 pandemic. Finance Research Letters, 38, 101701.
    Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., Kost, K., Sammon, M., & Viratyosin, T. (2020). The unprecedented stock market reaction to COVID-19. The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10(4), 742-758.
    Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., & Terry, S. J. (2020). Covid-induced economic uncertainty (No. w26983). National Bureau of Economic Research
    Batten, J. A., Ciner, C., & Lucey, B. M. (2014). On the economic determinants of the gold–inflation relation. Resources Policy, 41, 101-108.
    Baur, D. G., Beckmann, J., & Czudaj, R. L. (2020). The Relative Valuation of Gold. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 24(6), 1346-1391.
    Baur, D. G., & Lucey, B. M. (2010). Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? An analysis of stocks, bonds and gold. Financial Review, 45(2), 217-229.
    Baur, D. G., & McDermott, T. K. (2012). Safe haven assets and investor behaviour under uncertainty. Institute for International Integration Studies.
    Baur, D. G., McDermott, T. K. (2010). Is gold a safe haven? International evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(8), 1886-1898.
    Beber, A., Brandt, M. W., & Kavajecz, K. A. (2009). Flight-to-quality or flight-to-liquidity? Evidence from the euro-area bond market. The Review of Financial Studies, 22(3), 925-957.
    Bekiros, S., Boubaker, S., Nguyen, D. K., & Uddin, G. S. (2017). Black swan events and safe havens: The role of gold in globally integrated emerging markets. Journal of International Money and Finance, 73, 317-334.
    Bilgin, M. H., Gozgor, G., Lau, C. K. M., & Sheng, X. (2018). The effects of uncertainty measures on the price of gold. International Review of Financial Analysis, 58, 1-7.
    Chang, Y.-T., Gau, Y.-F., Hsu, C.-C. (2017). Liquidity commonality in foreign exchange markets during the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis: Effects of macroeconomic and quantitative easing announcements. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 42, 172-192.
    Choudhry, T., Hassan, S. S., & Shabi, S. (2015). Relationship between gold and stock markets during the global financial crisis: Evidence from nonlinear causality tests. International Review of Financial Analysis, 41, 247-256.
    Ciner, C., Gurdgiev, C., & Lucey, B. M. (2013). Hedges and safe havens: An examination of stocks, bonds, gold, oil and exchange rates. International Review of Financial Analysis, 29, 202-211.
    Conlon, T., Corbet, S., & McGee, R. J. (2020). Are cryptocurrencies a safe haven for equity markets? An international perspective from the COVID-19 pandemic. Research in International Business & Finance, 54, 101248.
    Coudert, V., & Raymond, H. (2011). Gold and financial assets: are there any safe havens in bear markets. Economics Bulletin, 31(2), 1613-1622.
    Gürgün, G., & Ünalmış, İ. (2014). Is gold a safe haven against equity market investment in emerging and developing countries? Finance Research Letters, 11(4), 341-348.
    Habib, M. M., & Stracca, L. (2012). Getting beyond carry trade: What makes a safe haven currency? Journal of International Economics, 87(1), 50-64.
    Haroon, O., & Rizvi, S. A. R. (2020). COVID-19: Media coverage and financial markets behavior—A sectoral inquiry. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 27, 100343.
    Hillier, D., Draper, P., & Faff, R. (2006). Do precious metals shine? An investment perspective. Financial Analysts Journal, 62(2), 98-106.
    Hood, M., & Malik, F. (2013). Is gold the best hedge and a safe haven under changing stock market volatility? . Review of Financial Economics, 22(2), 47-52.
    Huang, D., & Kilic, M. (2019). Gold, platinum, and expected stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 132(3), 50-75.
    Jubinski, D., & Lipton, A. F. (2013). VIX, gold, silver, and oil: how do commodities react to financial market volatility? Journal of Accounting and Finance, 13(1), 70-88.
    Kaul, A., & Sapp, S. (2006). Y2K fears and safe haven trading of the US dollar. Journal of International Money and Finance, 25(5), 760-779.
    Kliesen, K. L., & Smith, D. C. (2010). Measuring financial market stress. Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    Mensi, W., Hammoudeh, S., Reboredo, J. C., & Nguyen, D. K. (2014). Do global factors impact BRICS stock markets? A quantile regression approach. Emerging Markets Review, 19, 1-17.
    Mensi, W., Hkiri, B., Al-Yahyaee, K. H., & Kang, S. H. (2018). Analyzing time–frequency co-movements across gold and oil prices with BRICS stock markets: A VaR based on wavelet approach. International Review of Economics & Finance, 54, 74-102.
    Ongena, S., Popov, A., & Van Horen, N. (2019). The invisible hand of the government: Moral suasion during the European sovereign debt crisis. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 11(4), 346-379.
    Sarwar, G. (2012). Is VIX an investor fear gauge in BRIC equity markets?. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 22(3), 55-65.
    Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1991). Loss aversion in riskless choice: A reference-dependent model. The quarterly journal of economics, 106(4), 1039-1061.

    QR CODE
    :::