| 研究生: |
穆法德 Muhammad Fadhlil Hadi Komar |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
基於 Altman Ratio和 Beneish M-Score 的財務困境預測中使用Stacking Ensemble Learning Financial Distress Prediction Based on Altman Ratio and Beneish M-Score using Stacking Ensemble Learning |
| 指導教授: |
王尉任
Wei-Jen Wang 梁德容 De-Ron Liang 盧佳琪 Chia-Chi Lu Tri Kuntoro Priyambodo Tri Kuntoro Priyambodo |
| 口試委員: | |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
資訊電機學院 - 資訊工程學系 Department of Computer Science & Information Engineering |
| 論文出版年: | 2022 |
| 畢業學年度: | 110 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 56 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | Altman Ratio 、Beneish M-Score 、財務困境預測 、Stacking Ensemble Learning |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Altman Ratio, Beneish M-Score, Financial Distress Prediction, Stacking Ensemble Learning |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:19 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
在以往的研究中,財務比率被廣泛用於構建其財務困境預測模型。 Altman Ratio旨在衡量一家公司的財務狀況,在各種環境和市場中預測破產是準確的,在學術研究中已成為最常用的預測方法; 然而,Altman Ratio取決於財務報表中數據的有效性,需要其他變數來評估財務報告操縱的可能性。 之前的研究都沒有試圖將五個Altman Ratio與三年Beneish M-Score相結合。 我們提出了Stacking Ensemble Learning,該方法將五個Altman Ratio轉化為短期和長期變數,並在危機發生前進行3年的Beneish M-Score進行全面分析。 這些見解不僅混合了所有財務指標資訊,而且還根據長期、短期條件以及財務報表操縱的可能性仔細評估了這些資訊,從而幫助公共投資做出貸款決策。
Financial Ratio had been used widely on the previous research to build their model of financial distress prediction. The Altman Ratios was become the most often used for predicting especially in academic studies. Altman Ratios purposes to measure a company’s financial health and it proven accurate to forecast bankruptcy in a wide variety of contexts and markets. However, the Altman Ratios depends on the validity of the data in the financial statements, then other variable is needed to assess the financial report manipulation possibility. None of the previous studies attempted to combine the five Altman Ratios with the 3 years Beneish M-Score. We proposed stacking ensemble learning that have an ability to threatens five Altman Ratios into Short-term and long-term variables and 3 years of Beneish M-Score before the crisis happens and performed a comprehensive analysis. These insights help public investment make lending decisions by not only mixing all financial indicator information, but also carefully assessing it based on long-term, short-term condition, and also possibility of financial statement manipulation.
[1] J. Sun, H. Li, Q. H. Huang, and K. Y. He, “Predicting financial distress and corporate failure: A review from the state-of-the-art definitions, modeling, sampling, and featuring approaches,” Knowledge-Based Systems, vol. 57, pp. 41–56, 2014.
[2] Y. S. Huang and C. Y. Suen, “Behavior-knowledge space method for combination of multiple classifiers,” in IEEE Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, 1993.
[3] E. I. Altman, “Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and The Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy,” The Journal of Finance, 1968.
[4] D. Liang, C.-C. Lu, C. F. Tsai, and G. A. Shih, “Financial ratios and corporate governance indicators in bankruptcy prediction: A comprehensive study,” European Journal of Operational Research, 2016.
[5] P. du Jardin, D. Veganzones, and E. Séverin, “Forecasting Corporate Bankruptcy Using Accrual-Based Models,” Computational Economics, 2019.
[6] K. Valaskova, R. Fedoroko, "Beneish M-Score: A Measurement of fraudulent financial transactions in global environment," SHS Web of Conferences 92, 02064, 2021
[7] E. I. Altman, M. Iwanicz-Drozdowska, E. K. Laitinen, and A. Suvas, “Distressed Firm and Bankruptcy Prediction in an International Context: A Review and Empirical Analysis of Altman’s Z-Score Model,” SSRN Electronic Journal, 2014.
[8] C. Brentani, “Financial statement analysis and financial ratios,” in Portfolio Management in Practice, Elsevier, pp. 149–163, 2004.
[9] P. A. Griffin, “Financial Statement Analysis,” in Finding Alphas: A Quantitative Approach to Building Trading Strategies, 2015.
[10] E. J. Allen, C. R. Larson, and R. G. Sloan, “Accrual reversals, earnings and stock returns,” Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2013.
[11] S. Tian and Y. Yu, “Financial ratios and bankruptcy predictions: An international evidence,” International Review of Economics and Finance, 2017.
[12] J. Barugahare, A. Amirkhanian, F. Xiao, S. Amirkhanian, “Predicting the dynamic modulus of hot mix asphalt mixtures using bagged trees ensemble,” Construction and Building Materials, 260, p.120468, 2020.
[13] H. Frydman, E. I. Altman, and D.-L. Kao, “Introducing Recursive Partitioning for Financial Classification: The Case of Financial Distress,” The Journal of Finance, vol. 40, no. 1, pp. 269–291, Mar. 1985.
[14] Tarjo, N. Herawati, “Application of Beneish M-Score Models and Data Mining to Detect Financial Fraud,” Global Conferences on Business and Social Science, Vol.211, pp. 924-930, 2015.
[15] M. P. Sesmero, A. I. Ledezma, and A. Sanchis, “Generating ensembles of heterogeneous classifiers using Stacked Generalization,” Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, 2015.
[16] W. Jiang, Z. Chen, Y. Xiang, D. Shao, L. Ma, and J. Zhang, “SSEM: A Novel Self-Adaptive Stacking Ensemble Model for Classification,” IEEE Access, vol. 7, pp. 120337–120349, 2019.
[17] S. Džeroski and B. Ženko, “Is Combining Classifiers with Stacking Better than Selecting the Best One?,” Machine Learning, vol. 54, no. 3, pp. 255–273, Mar. 2004.
[18] E. Menahem, L. Rokach, and Y. Elovici, “Troika – An improved stacking schema for classification tasks,” Information Sciences, vol. 179, no. 24, pp. 4097–4122, Dec. 2009.
[19] M.-Y. Chen, “Predicting corporate financial distress based on integration of decision tree classification and logistic regression,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 38, no. 9, pp. 11261–11272, Sep. 2011.
[20] A. J. Scott, D. W. Hosmer, and S. Lemeshow, “Applied Logistic Regression,” Biometrics, 1991.
[21] R. Septiani, S. Musyarofah, R. Yuliana, "Beneish M-Score Reliability as a Tool For Detecting Financial Statements Fraud," International Colloquium on Forensics Accounting and Governance, Vol.1, no.1 , 2020
[22] A.N. Fadillah, D. Liang, C.-C. Lu, “Financial Distress Prediction Based on Long-Term and Short-Term Behaviour of Taiwan List Companies,” National Central University, 2020.
[23] D. Novitasari, D. Liang, "The Role of Comprehensive Income and Accrual in Predicting Bankruptcy," National Central University, 2018
[24] M.D. Beneish, M.C. Lee, C. Nichols, "Earnings Manipulation and Expected
Returns.," Financial Analysts Journal, vol. 69 no. 2, pp. 57-82, 2013.
[25] L. Svabova, K. Kramarova, J. Chutka, L. Strakova, "Detecting earnings
manipulation and fraudulent financial reporting in Slovakia," Oeconomia Copernicana, vol.11 no.3, pp 485-508, 2020.
[26] M. Ayu, R.R. Gamayuni, M. Urbański, "The impact of environmental and social costs disclosure on financial performance mediating by earning management," Polish Journal of Management Studies, vol.21, no, 1, pp. 74-86, 2020.
[27] A. Siekelova, A. Androniceanu, P. Durana, K. Frajtova Michalikova, "Earnings
management (EM), initiatives and company size: An empirical study," Acta Polytechnica Hungarica, vol. 17, no. 9, pp. 41-56, 2020.
[28] P. M. Healy, J.M. Wahlen, , "A Review of the Earnings Management Literature
and its Implications for Standard Setting.," Accounting Horizons, vol. 13, pp. 365-383, 1999
[29] T. Cover and P. Hart, “Nearest neighbor pattern classification,” IEEE Transactions on
Information Theory, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 21–27, 1967.
[30] C. J. C. Burges, “A Tutorial on Support Vector Machines for Pattern Recognition,” Data mining and knowledge discovery, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 121–167, 1998
[31] C. Cortes and V. Vapnik, “Support Vector Networks,” Machine Learning, vol. 20, no. 3, pp. 273–297, 1995.
[32] J. MacCarthy, “Using Altman Z-score and Beneish M-score Models to Detect Financial Fraud and Corporate Failure: A Case Study of Enron Corporation.”, International Journal of Finance and Accounting, International Journal of Finance and, 2017.
[33] M. Warshavsky, “Analyzing Earnings Quality as a Financial Forensic Tool,” Financial Valuation and Litigation Expert Journal, vol. 39, pp. 16-20, 2012.
[34] I. Pustylnick, “Combined Algorithm of Detection of Manipulation in Financial Statements,” Far Eastern Federal University, 2009.
[35] K. Qin, S. Shi, P. Suganthan, M. Loog, “Enhanced Direct Linear Discriminant Analysis for Feature Extraction on High Dimensional Data,” Twentieth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pp. 851-855, 2005.
[36] F. Barboza, H. Kimura, and E. Altman, “Machine Learning Models and Bankruptcy Prediction”. Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal, vol. 83, pp 405–417, 2017.
[37] A. Vieira, J. Duarte, B. Ribeiro, and J. Carvalho das Neves, “Accurate Prediction of Financial Distress of Companies with Machine Learning Algorithms,” International Conference on Adaptive and Natural Computing Algorithms, vol.5495, pp. 569-576, 2009.
[38] D. Liang, C. Tsai, H. Lu, L.Chang “Combining Corporate Governance Indicators with Stacking Ensembles for Financial Distress Prediction,” Journal of Business Research, vol.120, pp. 137-146, 2020