在產品的可靠度研究中，經常針對高可靠度的產品，在更嚴苛的應力條件下，研究其品質特性隨時間經過之衰變，稱為加速衰變測試。在此測試之下，研究者想求知具有100p%產品會失效的時間，稱之為p 分位失效時間。本文在品質特性隨時間變化為偉能(Wiener)或伽瑪(Gamma)隨機過程下，使用貝氏方法估計p 分位失效時間的下界。本文除了實例分析，也執行模擬研究p 分位失效時間貝氏估計之優劣。

A study of the reliability of a product with quality characteristics (QC) degraded over time under some more severe stress conditions is called an accelerated degradation test. In this test, the researchers would like to know its p quantile failure time at which 100p% of productswould reach the threshold value of QC. When the QC varying over time can be described as the Wiener or Gamma stochastic process, we employ the Bayesian method to estimate the lower bound for the p quintile failure time. In addition to a case analysis ,we perform a simulation study to investigate the performance of the propsesd Bayesian estimates.

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