本文根據Reasenberg和Jones（1989）提出的時間-規模頻率模型（RJ模型），當作點過程中的條件強度函數（conditional intensity function），並利用台灣過去（集集主震發生之前）十筆餘震序列當作早期地震資料，決定模型參數之先驗分配（prior distribution），然後針對集集餘震序列，使用馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅（Markov Chain Monte Carlo）方法衍生近似的聯合後驗分配，進行經驗貝氏分析（empirical bayes analysis），藉以評估集集餘震時間風險。最後，利用空間格點（spatial-grid）法，在每一個距離20公里的格點上，利用此一經驗貝氏分析計算對應的餘震發生機率，藉以探討集集餘震的時空風險。

In point process,we use RJ model as conditional intensity function,and use bayes analysis method to evaluate the time-space risk of chi-chi aftershocks.

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