具體而言,本研究認為預計將較早退休者,為了不使自己的一生所得因為較早退休的計畫而因之減少,他們反而會以增加自己的邊際產值的方式而更加努力,藉以促使雇主提高他們的薪資水準。薪資水準是影響預計退休年齡相當重要的變數,惟在行政院主計處於民國86年所作的「人力運用調查附帶之工作經驗調查」中,只有個人預計退休年齡的資料,並沒有個人薪資水準的資料,為克服上述資料限制的問題,本研究以該年五月份的「人力運用調查」資料來估計薪資方程式之後,用以預估同年十月份「工作經驗調查」中受審查的個人薪資資料。採用經濟區為主之分區來估計薪資。經濟區之劃分,以北、中、南、東四區主要區域,每區以農業人口的比例為依據,將各區鄉鎮劃分成五個發展等級,共分為25區估計薪資水準。
本研究使用工作經驗調查,以SURE (Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimates),使用小時薪估計式與預期退休年齡的估計式聯立,以Two-Stage聯立方式來估計薪資所得和預期退休年齡的相互關係,並連帶討論有哪些變數將會如何影響薪資所得和預期退休年齡。
研究結果如下:預計退休年齡與小時薪的關係實證結果顯示為負向且為顯著,表示預計退休年齡越晚(早),個人預期的薪資水準越低(高)。員工的預計退休年齡經由邊際產值的改變,間接影響員工的薪資水準使預計退休年齡與薪資水準成負向關係。亦可由所得效果與替代效果的相互作用,知道薪資水準越高者傾向越早退休,顯示人們的預計退休年齡與薪資水準成負向關係。受政府雇用者的工作經驗和預計退休年齡存在著反向關係。
員工個人的因素中對預計退休年齡有正向顯著影響者有性別,年齡,學歷,工作小時數,規模五百人以下的公司人數,從事水電燃氣業,及從事社會及個人服務業。這些因素使得員工預計較晚退休。員工個人的因素對預計退休年齡有負向顯著影響者有健康不良,及估計小時薪,這兩種因素值越高,其預計退休年齡越早。
聯立之後薪資水準受哪些變數影響,整體而言,除了健康不良的因素外,其他都有顯著的相關,對薪資水準高低影響正向的因素有性別、年齡、學歷、主修醫科、有配偶及職業變數,這些變數的數值越高其薪資所得越高。而對薪資水準影響負向的有工作經驗、主修理工科、工作小時數、公司規模及預計退休年齡,這些變數的數值越高則其薪資所得水準越低。
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