家族企業是全球最主要的組織型態之一，若聚焦於兩岸三地上市公司，台灣更是以高達74%的家族企業占比領先中國與香港，成為三者之中家族企業占比最高的地區。然而，美國家族企業研究機構調查發現，僅有少數家族企業能夠傳承至第三代或之後，儼然傳承與接班決策是家族企業所面臨的重大議題。

　　研究樣本自公開資訊觀測站蒐集2006至2015年台灣家族企業上市公司董事長異動事件，共計319筆樣本，並由台灣經濟新報資料庫下載樣本公司相關資訊。鑒於過去相關研究對於家族成員與專業經理人兩種接班模式之優缺點討論未達共識，本研究考慮先前未曾探討存在於家族企業的策略選擇內生性問題，關注影響家族企業接班模式之決定因素，使用羅吉斯迴歸分析並建立家族企業接班模式預測模型，正確預測率達76.21%。而從事件研究系統可觀察投資大眾對於選擇家族成員接班的樣本從事件宣告日前20天至事件日後10天有多天達顯著負向反應，表示市場並不看好家族企業子承父業的傳統觀念與做法，實證結果也顯示當預測模型與家族企業實際接班決策愈不相符時，有愈正向的市場反應，推估預期之外的衝擊資訊更能刺激股市產生正向反應。

Family businesses are the most prevalent organization form in the world. Study has shown about 74% of Taiwanese publicly traded companies are family businesses, which is much more than mainland China and Hong Kong in Great China Area. However, The Family Firm Institute indicated that only a few family businesses can successfully operate into the third generation or beyond. Issue such as succession planning is crucial to family businesses and has attracted extensive attention from researchers.

In this study, we use events of leader succession within Taiwanese publicly traded family business from 2006 to 2015, including 319 observations. Considering of endogeneity existed in family businesses, we use logistic regressions to examine whether determinants affect family businesses to make succession decision and to build a prediction model with 76.21% of overall correct prediction rate. Moreover, event study results show that when family business announced family member as successor, there is a significant negative effect on cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) during the 31-day (-20 to 10) event window, whereas there is no significant decreasing trend on CAR when professional managers are appointed. The empirical result indicates that stock market has better CAR when misalignment between prediction model and actual succession decision is larger. We surmise that stocks go up when succession decisions are out of investors’ expectation.

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