天然巨災可能造成人生命的危害，也可能造成個人財產的損失，而這些危害輕微則可能造成個別家庭經濟生活的失衡，嚴重則造成國家社會的經濟、政治的不安定，因此如何進行風險管理以避免危險，或減少危險事件發生後所造成損害，便成為一相當重要之研究課題。
台灣地區由於地理環境位置的特性，最常見的天然巨災為地震及颱風，本研究即針對地震及颱風兩類天然巨災，藉由現代之風險管理觀念，考量天然巨災風險的特性及來源，整合國內外相關之基礎研究，例如地震危害度分析、地震損害分析、各種易損性曲線相關研究及淹水潛勢圖等，建立了台灣地區地震及颱風洪水風險評估模型，並引入動態財務分析的概念，將巨災風險評估模型與動態財務分析模型作結合，最後再透過物件導向程式設計理念，開發建立具有親和力使用者介面之天然巨災風險評估系統，並取名為 Risktrace-EQ及RiskTracer-TY/FL。
本研究所研發的天然巨災風險評估系統採用投資組合分析模式，並建立較能反應損失關聯性之累計損失分佈，主要可以提供損失超越機率曲線的分析、了解不同財務觀點的損失分佈情形、藉由不同自負額，限額等的保險條件擬定設計較佳的保險策略、依據不同風險忍受度來訂定最大可能損失以及風險移轉機制之設計及分析等功能。

Natural catastrophe can cause the damage of the human being and loss of the property. General speaking, the damage can hurt the economy of a family and induce the uncertainty of economy environment and politic of the country. Therefore, how to avoid risk by rsik management or reduce the loss after natural catastrophe event is a very important topic of the catastrophe rsik management.
The most common natural catastrophe is earthquake and typhoon due to the special geographical environment position of Taiwan area. The purpose of this research is to delvelop the natural catastrophe risk assessment model include earthquake and typhoon. Using the modern concept of the risk management, this research considered the characteristic of the natural catastrophe risk and integrated the national and international relevant primary researches, such as seismic hazard analysis, seismic vulnerability analysis, fragility curve researches regarding catastrophe, flood potential analysis and etc. It also applied the concept of the dynamic financial analysis to the catastrophe rsik assessment model. Finally, we use the Object- Oriented Programming method to build up the natural catastrophe risk assessment software with user-friendly interface. The software names are “Risktrace-EQ” and “RiskTracer-TY/FL”.
The natural catastrophe risk assessment software we built uses portfolio analysis method. It uses the cumulative loss distribution which can reflect the correlated relationship between event losses. It can provide the functions such as loss exceeding probability analysis, loss distribution by different financial perspective, design the better risk program by different insurance condition, probale maximum loss by different risk tolerance, design and analysis of the risk sharing scheme.

Guy Carpenter & Company, “Natural Hazards-Review of the Year 2001.”, Publication, 2002.
Munich Re., 2001. Topics 2000, http://www.munichre.com/, Munich Reinsurance Company Website accessed September 2002.
Peter Cheesman, “Regional Initiatives in Asia to Cope with the CAT Challenges”, 8th Conference on Catastrophe Insurance in Asia, Taipei, 2009.
Guy Carpenter, “Flood Risk Models – Issues and Options”, Publication, 2002.
辛在勤，「台灣地區地震預警之初探訪」，氣象學報，42卷2期118-134 頁，1998。
Loh, C. H., Penzien J., Tsai, and Jean Y. W., “Seismic Demand based on damage control model-considering basin effect and source effect”, Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 17, 335-345,1998.
劉坤松，「台灣地區強震地動衰減模式之研究」，國立中央大學地球物理研究所博士論文，1999。
趙曉玲，「利用921 地震序列之強地動資料對台灣強地動衰減模式與反應譜速估之研究」，國立中央大學地球物理研究所碩士論文，2001。
Chang, T. Y., F. Cotton, and J. Angelier, “Seismic Attenuation and Peak Ground Acceleration in Taiwan”, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 91, 1229-1246, 2001.
林柏伸，「台灣東北部地區隱沒帶地震強地動衰減式之研究」，國立中央大學應用地質研究所碩士論文，2001。
Boore, D. M., W. B. Joyner, and T. E. Fumal, “Equations for estimating horizontal response spectra and peak acceleration from western north America earthquakes: asummary of recent work”, Seism.Res. Lett., 68, 1, 128-153, 1997
Campbell, K. W., “Empirical near-source attenuation relationships for horizontal and vertical components of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and pseudo-absolute acceleration response spectra”, Seism.Res. Lett., 68, 1, 154-179.
Boore, D. M., W. B. Joyner, and T. E. Fumal, “Equations for estimating horizontal response spectra and peak acceleration from western north America earthquakes: asummary of recent work”, Seism.Res. Lett., 68, 1, 128-153, 1997.
Sadigh, K., C. Y. Chang, J. A. Egan, F. Makdisi, and R. R. Youngs, “Attenuation relationships for shallow crustal earthquake based on California strong motion data”, Seism. Res. Lett., 68, 1, 180-189, 1997.
Spudich, P., J. B. Fletcher, M. Hellweg, J.Boatwright, C.Sullivan,W.B.Joyner, T. C. Hanks, D. M. Boore, A. McGarr, L. M.Baker, and A. G.Lindh, “SEA96 - A New Predictive Relation for EarthquakeGround Motions in Extensional Tectonic Regimes” , Seism. Res. Lett.,68, 1, 190-198, 1997
Atkinson, G. M. and D. M. Boore, “Some Comparisons Between Recent Ground Motion Relations”, Seism. Res. Lett., 68, 1, 24-40, 1997.
Toro, G. R., N. A. Abrahamson, and J. F. Schneider, “Model of Strong Ground Motions from Earthquakes in Central and Eastern North America: Best Estimates and Uncertainties”, Seism. Res. Lett., 68, 1, 41-57, 1997.
Crouse, C. B., “Ground-motion attenuation equation for earthquake on Cascadia subduction-zone earthquake”, Earthquake Spectra, 7, 210-236, 1991.
Youngs, R. R., S.-J. Chiou, W. J. Silva, and J.R. Humphrey, “Strong Ground Motion Attenuation Relationships for Subduction Zone Earthquakes”, Seism. Res. Lett. 68, 1, 58-73, 1997.
Fukushima, Y. and T. Tanaka, “A new attenuation relation for peak horizontal acceleration of strong earthquake ground motion in Japan”, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. , 80, 757-783, 1990.
Molas, G.. L. and F. Yamazaki, “Attenuation of earthquake ground motion in Japan including deep focus event”, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 85, 1343-1358, 1995.
蔡璧嬬，「臺灣自由場強震站場址分類之進一步研究」，國立中央大學碩士論文，2007。
Hwang, H. H. M., Huo, J. R., “Generation of Hazard-Consistent Fragility Curves for Seismic Loss Estimation Studies”, Technical Report NCREE-94-0015, 1994.
Singhal, A., Kiremidjian, A.S., “Method for Developing Motion Damage Relationship for Reinforced Concrete Frames”, Technical Report NCREE-95-0008, 1995.
Hwang, H.M., Jaw, J.W., “Probabilistic Damage Analysis of Structures”, Journal of Structural Engineering, Vol.116, No.7, P.1992~P.2007, 1990.
ATC-13, “Earthquake Damage Evaluation Data for California”, Applied Technology Council, 1985.
Army, “Seismic Dynamic Analysis for Buildings”, Final Draft, Department of the Army (TM5-809-10-1), Navy (NAVFAC P355.1), And Air Force (AFM 88-3,Chapter 13, Section A), 1996.
Mahaney et al., “The Capacity Spectrum Method for Evaluating Structural Response during the Loma prieta Earthquake”, Proceedings of the National Earthquake Conference, Memphis, Tennessee, U.S., 1993.
FEMA, “Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology-HAZUS97”, Technical Manual, Vol. 1, 1997.
許文科，「整合性多目標地震風險評估系統之建立」，國立中央大學土木工程研究所博士論文，1990。
FEMA, “Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology-HAZUS97”, Technical Manual, Vol. 3, 1997.
Shinozuka, M., Feng, M.Q., Lee, J. and Naganuma, T., “Statistical analysis of fragilitycurves, Journal of Engineering Mechanics”, Vol. 126, No. 12, pp1224-1231, 2000.
Journel, A. G. and C. J. Huijbregts, “Mining geostatistics,” Academic Press, London. 1978.
許銘熙等，「台北縣市淹水潛勢資料」，台北：行政院國科會防災國家行科技計畫辦公室研究報告，1999。
王如意、蘇明道等，「台北盆地及鹽水西流域示範區颱洪災害危險度分析(三)」，台北：經濟部水資源局研究報告，2001。
James, L. D., “Role of economics in planning flood plain land use, Journal of Hydraulic Division”, ASCE, 98(HY6), 981-992., 1972.
Dushmanta et al., “Direct Flood Damage Modeling towards Urban Flood Risk Management”, Proceedings of the Joint Workshop on Urban Safety Engineering 2001, 127-143,2001
Eckstein, O., “Water resources development; the economics of project evaluation”, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, 1958.
糠瑞林，「區域淹水災害風險評估及其未確定性分析」，國立台灣大學生物環境系統工程研究所博士論文，2005。
White, G. F., Human Adjustment to Floods, University of Chicago, Dep. of Geography, Research No. 29, 1945.
張齡方，「住宅區淹水損失之推估」，國立台灣大學農業工程學研究所碩士論文，2000。
Browne, J. Mark, James M. Carson, and Robert E. Hoyt. , ”Economic and Market Predictors of Insolvencies in the Life – Health Insurance Industry,”Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 66, No. 4, pp. 643-659，1997.
Browne, J. Mark. and Robert E. Hoyt.,”Economic and Market Predictors of Insolvencies in the Property – Liability Insurance Industry, Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 62, No. 2, pp.309-327, 1995.
Cummins, J. David, Martin F. Grace, and Richard D. Phillips., “Regulatory Solvency Prediction in Property – Liability Insurance: Risk – Based Capital, Audit Ratios, and Cash Flow Simulation”, Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 66, No. 3, pp.417-458, 1999.
D’Arcy, S.P., Gorvett, R.W., Herbers, J.A., and Hettinger, T.E., “Building a DFA Analysis is Model that Flies,” Contingencies Magazine, American Academy of Actuaries,1997.
羅依雯，「以動態財務分析預測我國產險業清償能力」，逢甲大學保險學系研究所碩士論文，2002。
吳佩如，「我國產物保險核保循環之研究」，逢甲大學保險學系研究所碩士論文，1998。