頻率（foF2）異常與地震之相關性，以交叉相關分析foF2 與地震
發生時間的關係，求出foF2 異常預測地震的時間，並且計算此一
預測成功之機率增量。然後利用模擬檢定foF2 異常現象預測地震
成功率之顯著性。最後以回顧式研究（Retrospective Study）探討
foF2 異常預測勝算與地震特性，諸如地震規模、震央與中壢觀測
站距離和震源深度之相關性。

Aceves, R.L., Park, S. K. and Strauss, D. J., Statistical evaluation of the VAN method
using the historic earthquake catalog in Greece, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23,
1425-1428, 1996.
Alan Agresti, Categorical data analysis, Wiely, 1990.
Barnes R. A., J. R.; R. S. Leonard, Observartion of isnospheric disturbances following the
Alaska earthquake, 1965.
Blanc, E., Observations in tje upper atmosphere of inference wanes from natural or
artifical sources: a summary., Ann. Geophys., 3, 673-688.
Cao, T. and Aki. K., Assigning probability gain for precursors of four large Chinese
earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res., 88, 2185-2190, 1983.
Furumoto A. S., G. W. Prolss, P. F. Weaver, and P. C. Yuen, Acoustic coupling into the
ionosphere from seismic waves of the earthquake at Kurile Islands on Auguest 11,
1969, 1970.
Habermann, R. E., Procursory seismic quiescence: past, present and future, Pageoph, 126,
279-318, 1988.
J. Y. Liu., Y.I. Chen, S.A. Pulinets, Y.J. Chuo, Seismo-ionospheric signatures prior to M
≧6.0 Taiwan earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett., l27, 19, 2000.
J. Y. Liu., Y.I. Chen, S.A. Pulinets, Y.J. Chuo, and Pulinet, S. A. (2001), foF2 signature
before M≧5.0 Taiwan earthquakes. IRS meeting, Nice, France.
Kagan, Y. Y., VAN earthquake predictions－an attempt at statistical evaluation, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 23, 1315-1318, 1996.
M. Wyss and A. Allmann. Probability of chance correlations of earthquakes with
predictions in areas of heterogenous seismicity rate: the VAN case, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 23, 1307-1310, 1996.
Maeda, K., The use of foreshocks in probabilistic prediction along the Japan and Kuril
trenches. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 86, 242-254, 1996.
Mulargia, F., and Gasperini, Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of VAN
earthquake precursors, Geophys. J. Int., 111,33-44, 1992.
Philip B. Stark, A few consideration for ascribing statistical significance to earthquake
predictions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 1399-1402, 1996.
Philip B. Stark, Earthquake predition: the null hypothesis, Geophys. J. Int., 131, 495-499,
1997.
Riedel, K. S., Statistical tests for evaluating earthquake prediction methods, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 23, 1407-1409, 1996.
R.M.W. Musson, Testing earthquake prediction Results statistically, Seismo. Res. Lett. 68,
27
6, 944-946, 1997.
Varotsos, P., K. Alexopoulos, and K. Nomicos, Seismic electric currents, Prakt. Akad.
Athenon, 56. 277-286, 1981.
Varotsos, P., and M. Lazaridou, Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on
seismic electeric signals, Tectonophysics, 188, 321-347, 1991.
Varotsos, P., K. Eftaxias, M. Lazaridou., E. Dologlou, and V. Hadjicontis, Reply to
Basic Principles for evaluating an earthquake prediction method, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 23, 1311-1314 1996a.
Varotsos, P., K. Eftaxias, K. Vallianatos, and M. Lazaridou. Basic Principles for
evaluating an earthquake prediction method, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 1295-1298
1996b.
Voitove, G. I., I. P. Dobrovolsky, Chemical and isotropic-carbon instabilities of the native
gasflows in seismically active regions, Physics of the Earth, 3, 20-31, 1994(in
Russian).
William W. S. Wei, Time series analysis-Univeriate and multivariate methods, Addison
Wesly, 1990.
卓裕榮, 強地震發生前電離層變化之統計分析, 碩士論文, 國立中央大學太空科
學研究所, 中壢, 1999.
孫正江 和 王華俊, 地電概論, pp. 53-69, 地震出版社, 1984.
徐名同, 地震學國立編驛館, 黎明文化事業公司出版, 台北, 民國79 年.
葉怡君, 電離層的地震現象, 碩士論文, 國立中央大學太空科學研究所, 中壢,
1996.