本研究探討2000至2024年間地緣政治風險對台灣銀行業經營績效與財務穩健性的影響，核心變數採用Caldara與Iacoviello等學者提出的地緣政治風險指數。由於台灣長期處於區域衝突潛勢與對中關係緊張的地緣政治環境，對金融體系形成潛在衝擊。本研究運用迴歸分析，涵蓋資本結構、獲利能力、經營能力、資產品質與償債能力等12項財務指標，探討台灣地緣政治風險指數是否對其有影響。實證結果顯示，地緣政治風險上升與資本適足率、第一類資本占風險性資產比、資產報酬率、股東權益報酬率、稅後淨利率、淨利差、逾期放款比率及利息保障倍數等變數呈顯著正相關；與營業費用率呈顯著負相關，顯示銀行在風險升溫時普遍會強化銀行資本控管、審慎授信及降低營業成本；另外，也將公股銀行作為虛擬變數，觀察地緣政治風險上升時，哪些變數會呈正相關或附相關，研究結果有助於金融監理機關與業者在面對區域緊張局勢時進行風險預警與資本配置調整。

This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk on the operational performance and financial soundness of Taiwan's banking sector from 2000 to 2024.The analysis employs the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) developed by Caldara and Iacoviello as the core explanatory variable. Given Taiwan’s long-standing exposure to regional conflict potential and tensions with China, geopolitical uncertainty poses significant threats to the financial system.The research empirically examines whether geopolitical risk in Taiwan, as measured by the GPR index, significantly affects twelve financial indicators across five major dimensions: capital structure, profitability, operational efficiency, asset quality, and solvency.The empirical results indicate that rising geopolitical risk is significantly positively associated with the Capital Adequacy Ratio, Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assets ratio, Return on Assets, Return on Equity, Net Profit Margin, Net Interest Margin, Non-Performing Loan Ratio, and Times Interest Earned, while it is significantly negatively associated with the Operating Expense Ratio.These findings suggest that banks tend to strengthen capital management, adopt prudent lending practices, and reduce operating costs under heightened geopolitical risk.In addition, a dummy variable is included to distinguish state-owned banks, allowing for an analysis of how bank type influences the sensitivity of financial indicators to geopolitical shocks.The findings provide valuable implications for regulators and financial institutions in designing risk early-warning systems and capital allocation strategies amid rising regional tensions.

一、中文部分
劉麗翎（2019），「台灣商業銀行經營績效影響因素之研究」，台北大學財務金融系碩士論文。
謝家榛（2020），「瓶裝飲料對食品業經營績效之探討」，中央大學財務金融系碩士論文。
王喬淳（2022），「氣候變遷政策風險、地緣政治風險與經濟風險 對綠色債券波動之影響」，高雄科技大學金融資訊系碩士論文。
王睿家（2023），「逾期放款比率與資本適足率對台灣上市銀行經營績效之影響」，南華大學管理學院財務金融學系碩士論文。
詹文棋（2024），「匯率、存放款及逾放比對台灣銀行經營績效之研究」，淡江大學財務金融系碩士論文。
二、英文部分
Aisen, A., & Veiga, F. J. (2013). How does political instability affect economic growth? European Journal of Political Economy, 29(1), 151–167.
Adel, N., & Naili, M. (2024). Geopolitical risk and banking performance: Evidence from emerging economies. Journal of Risk Finance, 25(4), 646–663.
Bouri, E., Jain, A., Roubaud, D., & Das, D. (2020). "Geopolitical Risk and Contagion in International Stock Markets". Finance Research Letters, 35, 101308.
Banna, H., Alam, A., Alam, A. W., & Chen, X. H. (2023). Geopolitical uncertainty and banking risk: International evidence. SSRN.
Behn, M., Lang, J. H., & Reghezza, A. (2025). 120 years of insight: Geopolitical risk and bank solvency. Economics Letters, 247, 110123.
Caldara, D., & Iacoviello, M. (2022). "Measuring Geopolitical Risk". American Economic Review, 112(4), 1194–1225.
Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Huizinga, H. (2010). Bank activity and funding strategies: The impact on risk and returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 98(3), 626–650.
Noguera, J. L., & Trivín, P. (2021). Geopolitical Risk and the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks. Banco de España Working Paper No. 2120.
Peterson, M. A. (2009). Estimating standard errors in finance panel data sets: Comparing approaches. Review of Financial Studies, 22(1), 435–480.
White, H. (1980). A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48(4), 817–838.
Yıldırım, F., & Berkman, A. N. (2022). The impact of geopolitical risk index on the profitability performance of the banking sector. Journal of Turkish Social Sciences Research, 7(2), 89–100.