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研究生: 李仁傑
Jen-Chieh Lee
論文名稱: 新興市場選股策略之研究-以台灣電子股為例
Stock Selection in Emerging Market: Portfolio Strategies for Taiwan Electronic Category
指導教授: 何中達
Chung-Da Ho
口試委員:
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融學系
Department of Finance
畢業學年度: 90
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 64
中文關鍵詞: 選股策略新興市場
外文關鍵詞: stock selection, emerging market
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  • 中文摘要
    過去的觀念一般都認為,在新興市場的投資策略中,國家的選擇比股票的選擇更為重要,但我們認為只要有好的擇股方法,同樣也能在市場中獲利。因此本文採用排序法,利用台灣上市股票中的電子類股,將10個選股因子的報酬率做完整且詳細的檢視,在此研究中,樣本內的研究期間為85年1月到89年12月,而樣本外的研究期間為民國90年;我們分別計算利用各個因子所排序出投資組合的診斷性因子、相關係數及成功率,並觀察分析各個投資組合的表現來做出選股決策,由實證結果可知:(1)在台灣的電子股中,淨值市價比前20﹪的股票的所形成之投資組合其報酬率明顯高於電子類指數的報酬率。(2)在台灣的電子股中,現金收入對市場價值比最後20﹪的股票所形成的投資組合其報酬率明顯低於電子類指數的報酬率。(3)負債權益比越低的股票,它報酬率的表現就越好,特別是在股市下跌時表現尤佳,而負債權益比越高的股票,它的表現就越差。(4)在樣本外的研究中發現,本文所敘述的選股方式的確可以選出報酬率高於電子類股指數的投資組合。


    Abstract
    The conventional wisdom that country selection is more important than stock selection in emerging market. Contrary to conventional wisdom; stock selection can also be a source of significant outperformance. We choose to focus on the sorting method. We calculate diagnostics, correlations and success ratios to these portfolios, and than we use these factors to make our stock selection decision. Finally we found that:(1)The top portfolio of book-to-price ratio is outperform the benchmark.(2)The bottom portfolio of cash-earnings-to-price yield is underpreform the bench mark.(3)The stock with lower debit-to-equity ratio performs well especially in down market but those with high debit-to-equity ratio.(4)Our analysis is useful in that we provide detailed information on the performance various screening factors in both up and down markets.

    目 錄 第一章 序 論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究目的 2 第三節 論文架構 3 第二章 文獻探討 4 第一節 相關之選股因子 4 第二節 對於新興市場的選股研究 6 第三節 國內相關的論文 7 第三章 研究方法 9 第一節 排序法(SORTING) 9 第二節 資料說明 9 第三節 股票篩選方法(SCREENING PROCESS) 10 第四章 實證結果 24 第一節 樣本內之分析 24 第二節 樣本外之分析 27 第五章 結論與建議 30 第一節 結論 30 第二節 後續研究建議 31 參考文獻: 64

    參考文獻:
    (一) 國外文獻
    1、Achour, Dana, Campbell R. Harvey, Greg Hopkins, and Clive Lang. 1998. “Stock Selection in Emerging Markets: Portfolio Strategies for Malaysia, Mexico, and South Africa.” Emerging Market Quarterly, 2, pp.38-91.
    2、Badrinath, S. G. and O. Kini, 1994, “The Relationship between Securities Yields, Firm Size, Earnings/Price Ratio and Tobin’s q,” Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, Jan, pp. 109-131.
    3、Barbee, W. C., Jr., S. Mukherji and G. A. Raines, 1996, “Do Sales-Price and Debt-Equity Explain Stock Returns Better than Book-Market and Firm Size”, Financial Analysts Journal, March/April 1996, pp56-60.
    4、Barry, Christopher B,. Elizabeth Goldreyer, Larry Lockwood, and Mauricio Rodriguez. 1997. “Size and Book-to-Market Effects: Evidence from Emerging Equality Markets.” Working paper, Texas Christian University.
    5、Basu, S,., 1977, “Investment Performance of Common Stocks in Relation to their Price-Earning Ratio : A Text of the Efficient Narket Hypothesis” Journal of Finance, 32, pp. 663-682.
    6、Bhandari, L. C., 1988, “Debt/Equity Ratio and Expected Common Stock Returns:Empirical Evidence”, Journal of Finance, June 1988, pp507-528.
    7、Bhattacharya, Utpal, Hazem Daouk, Brian Jorgenson, and Carl-Heinrich Kehr. 1998, “When an Event is Not an Event: The Curious Case of an Emerging Market.” Working paper, Indian University, Carreker-Antinori, and Dresdner Bank AG.
    8、Claessens, Stijn, Susmita Dasgupta, and Jack Glen. 1997. ”The Cross-Section of Stock Returns: Evidence from the Emerging Markets.” Working paper, International Finance Corporation.
    9、Erb, Claude B., Campbell R. Harvey, and Tadas E. Viskanta. 1996. “Political Risk, Financial Risk, and Economic Risk.” Financial Analysis Journal, 52, pp. 28-46.
    10、Fama, Eugene F. and Kenneth R. French, 1992, “The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns,“ Journal of Finance, 47, pp. 427-465.
    11、Grinold, R. C. and R. N. Kahn, 1992, “Information Analysis : A Two-Step Approach to Information Ratios, Information Coefficients, and the Value of Investment Information” Journal of Portfolio Management, Spring, pp. 14-21.
    12、Reinganum, Marc R., 1981, “Misspecification of Capital Asset Pricing : Empirical Anomalies Based on Earnings Yield and Market Values,” Journal of Financial Economics, 9, pp. 19-46.
    13、Rosenberg, B., K. Reid and R. Lanstein, 1985, “Persuasive Evidence of Market Inefficiency,” Journal of Portfolio Management, 11, pp.9-17.
    14、Rouwenhorst, Geert. 1998. “Local Return Factors and Turnover in Emerging Stock Markets.” Working paper, Yale University.
    (二)國內文獻:
    1、陳建良,1994,『我國股票市場異常現象之實證研究』,國立交通大學 管理科學研究所碩士論文。
    2、盧麗安,1996,『財務基本分析與台灣股價表現』,國立中山大學 財務管理研究所碩士論文
    3、鄭文昇,1997,『臺灣股市益本比效應之實證研究』,國立中興大學 會計研究所碩士論文
    4、戴敏雪,2001『規模、風險與市場權益價值之實證研究』,國立中正大學,企業管理研究所碩士論文
    5、黃宏德,2000『台灣股市選股指標績效評估』,國立中山大學,財務管理研究所碩士論文

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