本論文主要是在探討影響中小企業發生違約事件的可能因子，並試圖建立「能偵測」中小企業戶發生違約事件的模型。中小企業因體質不若大型企業來得健全，故其向金融機構申請融資的過程較為不易；而我國信保基金得提供中小企業「信用保證」的服務，藉此補足其擔保品的不足，並給予金融機構「代位清償」的承諾，一旦當該中小企業發生違約事件時，信保基金需賠償金融機構的部分損失金額。信保基金會向獲得「信用保證」的中小企業收取「保證手續年費率」，只是該費率長年偏低，且有不足以支應信保基金賠償給金融機構的損失金額之現象，故本論文試圖建立偵測財務違約事件的模型，提供給相關授信單位作為參考。本論文實證結果發現核保成數高低、核保額度高低、送保銀行屬性、送保銀行規模屬性等變數，與中小企業發生違約事件有很大關聯。

The goal of the paper is to examine the factors that affect the small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to occur default events. Besides, the paper also attempts to develop useful models to forecast the default rate of SMEs in advance. Because the sizes of SMEs are lower than big enterprises, they don’t have enough collateral to borrow money from banks. And “the third party”, Small and Medium Enterprise Credit Guarantee Fund of Taiwan (SMEG), will provide SMEs with “credit guarantee” to enhance their ability of financing. If the SMEs can’t fully pay the interest expenses or loans to the banks, SMEG must to substitute SMEs to pay the borrowing money to the banks. SMEG will charge SMEs, which receive the service of credit guarantee for guarantee fee (annual rate). However, due to the low guarantee fee rate, SMEG faces the problem of financial gap - its revenues couldn’t cover its payments. The paper develops warning default models for related credit agencies or institutions. Also, the main finding is that “guarantee coverage percentage”, “total amount of guarantee loans”, “the type of banks” and “the size of the banks”, etc. reflect the default rate of SMEs.

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