貝里斯消費者購置電動汽車之經濟評估及消費者需求之研究

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研究生：	史安潔 Angelita Staine
論文名稱：	貝里斯消費者購置電動汽車之經濟評估及消費者需求之研究 Economic Evaluation and Demands for Consumers in Belize to Purchase Battery Electric Vehicles
指導教授：	廖萬里 Wan-Li Liao
口試委員:
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	工學院 - 國際永續發展碩士在職專班 International Environment Sustainable Development Program
論文出版年：	2021
畢業學年度：	109
語文別：	英文
論文頁數：	119
中文關鍵詞：	電池式電動汽車、內燃機式汽車、成本效益分析、層級分析法、陳述式偏好調查
外文關鍵詞：	Battery Electric Vehicle, Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle, Cost Benefit Analysis, Analytic Hierarchy Survey, Stated Preference Survey
相關次數：	點閱：19 下載：0
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貝里斯現今試圖推動一項增加電動汽車用戶的交通政策以邁向低碳經濟社會。本研究藉由成本效益分析方法(CBA)分析比較電池式電動汽車（以下簡稱電動汽車）與內燃機式汽車的購置成本效益，及應用層級分析法(AHP)於購置電動汽車的六項標準，包括購買成本、期望汽車耐用年限、充電站普遍性、每次充電可駕里程、充電時間及二氧化碳減排等之偏好優先順序；並採用陳述式偏好調查法(SPS)調查貝里斯消費者於本項調查所提供之五種電動汽車型式的選購基本需求與條件。
以出廠新車五年內的成本分析結果顯示，電動汽車之成本效益高於內燃機汽車。本研究調查發現，有甚多貝里斯消費者如果換車會考慮購置電動汽車，但是他們甚為關切電動汽車的購價高低。這需要當局實施一項降低電動汽車與內燃機汽車的售價差距之經濟誘因激勵政策，包括電動車購買補貼與退稅。研究調查顯示消費者較能接受之電動車售價在美金$36,000至 $43,185之間，而每次充滿電期望至少能駕駛里程達249英哩，此外，貝里斯消費者較偏愛的電動車車型是休旅車與轎車。
本研究結果指出，電動汽車工業之發展於減少貝里斯二氧化碳足跡的國家發展方向上，包括減少進口能源的依賴度，具有關鍵性角色，而本研究可作為貝里斯有關當局推動電動汽車政策之參考。

Belize is currently attempting to transition to a low carbon economy by implementing an electric transportation strategy that is to increase the users of electric vehicles. This study sought to analyze the cost effectiveness of a battery electric vehicles (BEV) against an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICE vehicle) as well as evaluate the demands of users for purchasing battery electric vehicles in Belize. This was done for the consumers in Belize by using the analytic technique and surveying tools of cost benefit analysis (CBA), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and stated preference survey (SPS).
CBA is used to measure the costs and benefits of the decision in purchasing BEV to replace ICE vehicles, and AHP technique is used for the selection of BEV and prioritization of six criteria including purchase cost, life expectancy, access to charging stations, travel range, charging time, and carbon dioxide reduction. The use of stated preference survey (SPS) is to survey how customers might behave in five models of BEV selection by showing their preference. Results indicate that the BEV is more cost effective over its 5-year lifetime than ICE vehicles in Belize. According to the survey from this study, many Belizean consumers would consider having an electric vehicle as their next car purchase, however, they are much concerned about the purchase cost of BEV. The necessary incentive policies must be implemented to decrease the initial cost of the electric vehicle, thus increasing its adoption in Belize. One the primary measures is purchase subsidies including tax rebates of vehicle purchase to reduce the price gap with conventional vehicles. To increase marketability of electric vehicles entering Belize’s automobile market, it is suggested that the purchase price is within the range of $36,000- $43,185, the travel distance at least 249 miles and the most preference BEVs are SUVs and sedans.

For moving towards a low carbon country, reduction of carbon dioxide CO2 emissions from transportation is a necessary policy in Belize. This study indicates that Belize’s electricity generation mix boosts the BEV’s effectiveness in reducing annual CO2 emissions. This finding demonstrates that BEV can play a critical role in reducing Belize’s carbon footprint, specifically within the transport industry, thus can be of great influence in Belize realizing one of its INDC (intended nationally determined contributions) goals, which is lowering energy concentrations within transport by endorsing conversion to sustainable transportation. The results of economic analysis and the findings of Belizean consumers’ demands from this study could provide a valuable information for the authorities of Belize in promoting electric vehicle strategies.

中文摘要    i 
Abstract     ii
Acknowledgements     iii
Table of Contents     iv 
List of Figures     v
List of Tables     vi 
Acronyms and Symbols     vii

Chapter I: Introduction     1
1-1 Belize’s Transportation Energy Demands    1
1-2 Research Motivation    6
1-2-1 Belize’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution Goals    6
1-3 Research Scope    8
1-3-1 Research Questions and Expected Contribution     8
 1-3-2 Research Objectives    9
1-3-3 Importance of Study     9
1-4 Thesis Outline    10
Chapter II: Literature Review    11
2-1 Transport Industry in the World and Belize     11
2-1-1 The Transportation Demands of Central American/Caribbean Countries    14
2-2 The Trend of Sustainable Transportation with Electric Vehicles (EVs)    16
2-2-1 Modes of Sustainable Transportation    17
2-2-2 Electric Vehicles    18
2-2-2-1 Types of Electric Vehicles    18
2-2-2-2 Advantages of Electric Vehicles    20
2-2-2-3 Disadvantages of Electric Vehicles    21
2-3 Current policies in promoting sustainable transportation of developing countries    23
2-3-1 Sustainable Transportation Initiatives in Latin America    23
2-3-1-1 Argentina    24
2-3-1-2 Brazil    24
2-3-1-3 Chile    24
2-3-1-4 Colombia    25
2-3-1-5 Costa Rica    25
2-3-1-6 Mexico    25
2-3-1-7 Panama    25
2-3-1-8 Incentive Policy for Electric Mobility in Latin America    26
2-3-2 Sustainable Transportation in Belize    30
2-3-2-1 Sustainable Transportation Initiatives in Belize     30
2-4 Benefit-Cost Analysis    31
2-4-1 Case Study: Cost Benefit Analysis of introducing Electric Vehicles in Bhutan33
Chapter III Methodology    42
3-1 Cost Benefit Analysis     43
3-1-1 Vehicle Selection     43
3-1-2 Calculation of Vehicle Costs and Benefits    46
3-1-2-1 Vehicle Costs    46
3-1-2-2 Vehicle Benefits    49
3-1-3 Net Present Value     50
3-2 Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)    53
3-2-1 Problem Structuring    54
3-2-2 AHP Session    55
3-2-3 Analysis    56
3-3 Stated Preference Survey    58
CHAPTER IV: Results     59
4-1 Cost Benefit Analysis    59
4-1-1 Investment Cost    59
4-1-2 Operation Cost    60
4-1-3 Maintenance Cost    62
4-1-4 Emissions & Damage Cost    63
4-1-5 Vehicle Benefits    68
4-1-6 Total Cost of Ownership    69
4-2 Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Survey     75
4-2-1 Case Study: Identification and Analysis of Barriers against Electric Vehicle 
Use    75
4-2-2 Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) Survey    77
4-3 Stated Preference Survey    82
4-3-1 The market acceptance of electric motorcycles in Taiwan experience
 through a stated preference analysis    82
4-3-2 Stated Preference Survey    85

CHAPTER V: Conclusion     87
5-1 Conclusion     87
5-2 Recommendations     88  
5-3 Future Work     88

Bibliography    90
Appendix A    94
Appendix B    101


                                

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