台灣地震頻繁，若直接觀看過往地震紀錄的話，顯得雜亂無章。於是我們將規模4.8級以下的地震紀錄刪除，再將紀錄範圍限定在台灣本島與近海一個梯形的範圍內，發現這樣會有比較明顯的規律。事實上地震具有反覆的特質，被稱為蹺蹺板現象，例如一南一北、一東一西，或是當有一規模大於五的中層(75~300公里)地震發生後，短期內該處必有一大地震發生於極淺層(0~30公里)。從這些紀錄中我們找到一個新的預測方法，稱為向上支撐趨勢線(upward support trend line)，可以簡易的預測數個月內將發生於極淺層的大地震。

Taiwan is an area known for frequent earthquakes, but a fleeting look at past record does not reveal obvious patterns. When removing earthquake records with intensity less than 4.8, and limit our scope to a trapezium area on the Taiwan island and immediate surrounding regions, the resulting data can be analyzed to detect potential trends. Earthquakes are commonly known to possess the so called seesaw effect, where earthquakes happen consequently one to the north one to the south, or one to the east and one to the west. Alternatively if an earthquake with intensity larger than 5 occurs within medium distance to the surface (75-300km), within a short period of time there is bound to be an intense earthquake close to surface (0-30km). From the data above mentioned we have discovered a new upward support trend line method, which can be used to effectively predict earthquakes close to surface within a few months' time frame.

[1] C.H. Scholz, “The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting”, 2ndEdtion, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK ,2002.
[2] 張誌浩，「集集大地震前RI與AI指標在各斷層末端的表現」，國立中央大學，碩士論文，民國一百年。
[3] 中央氣象局地震測報中心，http://scweb.cwb.gov.tw/
[4] 經濟部中央地質調查所，http://fault.moeacgs.gov.tw