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研究生: 卓育辰
Yu-Chen Zhuo
論文名稱: 結合因子分析與程式交易應用於台股之自動化回測與驗證平台
An automated backtest platform combining factor analysis and program trading on Taiwan stocks
指導教授: 許智誠
Chih-Cheng Hsu
口試委員:
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 資訊管理學系
Department of Information Management
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 114
中文關鍵詞: 量化交易程式交易多因子模型因子分析技術面分析移動窗格分散式運算
外文關鍵詞: Quantitative Trading, Program Trading, Multi-Factor Models, Factor Analysis, Technical Analysis, Walk Forward Analysis, Distribute Computing
相關次數: 點閱:13下載:0
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  • 多因子模型相關的研究大多針對使用各種方法找出有效的因子組合,然而鮮少研究
    接續探討多因子模型結合技術面策略之相關驗證,以及如何建置這些自動化回測與驗證
    平台。對此本研究參考謝昀峻 (2018)提出之類似實驗設計為概念,以此為基礎加入多因
    子模型結合技術面策略動態換股策略,同時改進了能夠根據條件動態配置資金權重,並
    且以 Pardo (2011)所提出投組最佳化方法——移動窗格設計系統流程,使能夠動態驗證
    策略穩定性,然而其系統架構與流程設計存在種種限制無法兼容上述需求,故本研究自
    行以 Python 開發一套具備上述功能之自動化回測與驗證平台,此外由於移動窗格之系
    統流程設計需要較多的運算資源,故參考林泓志 (2020)研究中使用的多節點偵測任務分
    散式演算法設計系統架構,以多台主機同時運算分擔運算負載。
    本研究以 8 種單因子與 4 種雙因子組合搭配各種策略組合進行實驗,主要交易策略
    共有買入持有與動態換股 2 種策略,另外動態換股包含其他設定,例如最佳化參數窗格
    配置中的固定參數、定錨、非定錨;資金權重分配方法中的等資金權重、最大化資金利
    用方法。並且會再實驗以各種組合選擇不同群組之候選股以及持有不同最大持有股數之
    差異,最後將績效以多種視覺化圖表呈現,從不同角度剖析策略表現。


    Most of the researches related to multi-factor models are aimed at finding effective factor
    combinations using various methods, but few studies continue to explore the verification of
    multi-factor models combined with technical analysis strategies, and how to build these
    automated backtesting and verification platforms. In this regard, this research refers to the
    concept of similar experimental design proposed by 謝昀峻 (2018). Based on this, it adds a
    multi-factor model combined with a technical analysis strategy dynamic exchange stock
    strategy. At the same time, it improves the ability to dynamically allocate capital weights
    according to conditions, and use walk forward analysis which is a portfolio optimization method,
    proposed by Pardo (2011) to design system process, so let it can dynamically verify the stability
    of the strategy. However, its system architecture and process design have various limitations
    and cannot be compatible with the above requirements. Therefore, this research uses Python to
    develop an automated backtest and verification platform with the above functions. In addition,
    because the system process design of the walk forward analysis requires more computing
    resources, the system architecture is designed with reference to the multi-node detection task
    distributed algorithm used in the research of 林泓志 (2020). It uses multiple hosts to perform
    simultaneous operations to share the computational load.
    This study uses 8 single-factor and 4 dual-factor combinations with various strategy
    combinations to conduct experiments. The main trading strategies include two strategies: buyand-hold and dynamic stock exchange. In addition, dynamic stock exchange strategies
    includes other settings, such as in the optimization parameter window configuration, there are
    fixed parameters, anchored, and non-anchored; There are equal capital weight and maximum
    capital utilization methods in the capital weight distribution method. Besides, we will
    experiment with various combinations to select candidate stocks in different groups and the
    difference in holding different maximum number of shares. Finally, the performance will be
    presented in a variety of visual charts to analyze the performance of the strategy from different
    perspectives.

    摘要 vi Abstract vii 誌謝 viii 目錄 ix 圖目錄 xi 表目錄 xv 第一章、 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景 1 1.2 研究動機 2 1.3 研究目的 3 第二章、 文獻探討 5 2.1 多因子模型 5 2.1.1 簡介 5 2.1.2 因子組合 5 2.1.3 因子失效的問題 7 2.1.4 因子有效性檢驗 7 2.2 結合基本面指標選股與技術面策略相關研究 8 2.3 技術面分析 9 2.4 最佳化 10 2.4.1 移動窗格 10 2.5 多節點分散式運算 12 第三章、 系統設計與實作 14 3.1 系統流程與架構 14 3.1.1 系統流程 14 3.1.2 系統架構 16 3.2 多因子選股 17 3.3 動態換股與根據條件動態配置資金權重 18 3.3.1 動態換股 21 3.3.2 根據條件動態配置資金權重 24 3.4 績效分析與因子有效性分析 28 3.5 多節點分散式運算任務分派 30 3.6 子系統設計 31 3.6.1 資料API Server 32 3.6.2 平行運算處理 35 第四章、 系統驗證與分析 37 4.1 實驗架構 37 4.1.1 選擇因子組合 37 4.1.2 實驗變數 38 4.1.3 因子計算公式 39 4.2 實驗設計 40 4.2.1 實驗流程 40 4.2.2 環境設定 41 4.3 實驗結果 42 4.3.1 比較不同因子組合搭配各種實驗變數之三種績效指標表現 42 4.3.2 選擇分析數據 70 4.3.3 分析資金利用率對於投組之影響 72 4.3.4 分析不同最佳化窗格配置獲利分布 77 4.3.5 分析單一策略交易明細 83 4.3.6 分析因子有效性 88 4.3.7 檢視系統執行效率 92 第五章、 結論 93 5.1 結論 93 5.2 研究限制 95 5.3 未來建議 96 參考文獻 97

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