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研究生: 林莉恬
LI-TIAN LIN
論文名稱: 政黨輪替對股市的影響--以台灣與韓國為例
The Impacts of the Political Party Rotation on Stock Market Performance: An Empirical Analysis of Taiwan and South Korea
指導教授: 黃瑞卿
Rachel Huang
口試委員:
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融學系
Department of Finance
論文出版年: 2025
畢業學年度: 113
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 41
中文關鍵詞: 政黨輪替隨機優越EPM
外文關鍵詞: Political party rotation, Stochastic Dominance, EPM
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  • 本研究以韓國與台灣為例,探討政黨輪替對股市績效的影響,並引入經濟表現衡量指標(EPM)、隨機優越法則(SD)與幾乎隨機優越(ASD)法則,構建全面且嚴謹的分析框架。研究發現,政黨輪替對股市的影響因國家特性而異,並呈現複雜性,在韓國,自由派執政期間的股市表現顯著優於保守派,即使考慮風險後,仍維持優勢,這可能與自由派政策強調經濟改革與社會正義有關。而在台灣,國民黨執政前三年股市表現較優,但第四年則反轉為民進黨較有優勢,並顯示國民黨在風險指標略高於民進黨,但整體平均報酬率卻較低,因此民進黨的EPM及夏普值表現更佳。此外,基於隨機優越法則與幾乎隨機優越法則的分析顯示,兩國皆無法明確判定某一政黨在股市績效上的全面優勢。


    This paper examines the impact of political party rotation on stock market performance, using South Korea and Taiwan as case studies. It introduces the Economic Performance Measure (EPM), Stochastic Dominance (SD), and Almost Stochastic Dominance (ASD) to construct a comprehensive and rigorous analytical framework. The findings reveal that the effects of political party rotation on the stock market vary by country and exhibit complexity. In South Korea, stock market performance under liberal administrations significantly outperforms that under conservative ones, even after accounting for risk—possibly due to liberal policies emphasizing economic reform and social justice. In Taiwan, stock market performance was stronger during the first three years of Kuomintang (KMT) governance but reversed in the fourth year, favoring the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The KMT was associated with higher risk indicators but lower average returns, leading to better EPM and Sharpe ratios under the DPP. Furthermore, analyses based on SD and ASD reveal no clear overall superiority of any single political party in terms of stock market performance.

    摘要 i Abstract ii 致謝 iii 目錄 iv 圖目錄 vi 表目錄 vii 一、 緒論 1 二、 文獻回顧 3 三、 研究方法 4 3-1 Economic Performance Measure指標 4 3-2 隨機優越法則 6 3-3 幾乎隨機優越法則 7 四、 研究資料 9 4-1 韓國政黨介紹 9 4-2 台灣政黨介紹 9 4-3 資料變數 10 五、 韓國實證分析結果 12 5-1 報酬率與存款利率 12 5-2 兩黨績效表現 12 5-3 EPM檢定 13 5-4 迴歸分析 13 5-5 隨機優越法則檢定 14 5-6小節 15 六、 台灣實證分析結果 16 6-1 報酬率與存款利率 16 6-2 兩黨績效表現 16 6-3 EPM檢定 17 6-4 迴歸分析 18 6-5 隨機優越法則檢定 18 6-6小節 19 七、 結論 20 參考文獻 30

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