| 研究生: |
連昱榕 Yu-Rong Lian |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
能源補貼下的最適貨幣政策 |
| 指導教授: |
姚睿
Ruey-Yau |
| 口試委員: | |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 經濟學系 Department of Economics |
| 論文出版年: | 2015 |
| 畢業學年度: | 103 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 66 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 動態隨機一般均衡模型 、能源補貼 、貨幣政策 、福利水準 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | DSGE model, energy subsidy, monetary policy, welfare analysis |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:19 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
本文嘗試建立一個能捕捉台灣能源使用的動態隨機一般均衡模型以探討台灣最適的貨幣政策應該如何設計:央行應該釘住扣除物價波動較大成分的核心通貨膨脹率,或是總通貨膨脹率。為了較準確刻劃家計單位能源的使用,本文引入具有投資性質的耐久財消費進入模型中,同時也參考不同文獻的設定,將能源價格補貼的行為一同引入。分析的結果發現,於本文校準的台灣補貼水準下,釘住預期(前瞻式)核心通貨膨脹率的方式為最適的貨幣政策,呼應了台灣央行過去的貨幣政策。然而,於無補貼下,本文考慮的各種貨幣政策之福利水準皆無明顯的差異,這代表當政府讓國際油價完全轉嫁至國內使用者時,央行在選擇貨幣政策上將有更自由的空間。
We study the optimal monetary policy rule under a DSGE model that allows for energy and durable goods consumption.In addition to rigidity in the nominal prices of domestically produced goods,energy subsidy is considered as another source of price distortion.
As a result,both the core and headline inflation rates are rigid.We calibrate our model to fit the Taiwanese economy.We find that Taylor rules that target on the core inflation are consistently better than those target on the headline inflation.In addition,forward-looking rules consistently generate higher welfare gains than rules that target on contemporaneous inflation.Without energy subsidy,the welfare differences between various monetary policies are negligible,which leave more room for the central bank to design its policy.
姚睿,朱俊虹與吳俊毅,(2010).「台灣泰勒法則估計之資料訊息問題」,台灣經濟預測與政策,41,85-119。
陳旭昇與吳聰敏,(2010).「台灣貨幣法則之檢視」,經濟論文,38,33-59。
吳致寧,李慶男,張志揚,林依伶,陳佩玗與林雅琪,(2011).「再論台灣非線性利率法則」,經濟論文,39,307-338。
林依伶,張志揚與陳佩玗,(2011).「台灣利率法則之實證研究-考慮匯率變動之不對稱性效果」,中央銀行季刊,34,39-62。
黃俞寧,(2013).「動態隨機一般均衡架構在台灣貨幣政策制定上之應用」,中央銀行季刊,35:1,3-34。
Aoki,K.,(2001).Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes.Journal of Monetary Economics,48, 55-80.
Baig,T.,A.Mati,D.Coady,and J.Ntamatungiro,(2007).Domestic petroleum product prices and subsidies:Recent developments and reform strategies.Working Paper,International Monetary Fund,WP/07/71.
Ben Aissa,M.S.,and Rebei,N.,(2012).Price subsidies and the conduct of monetary policy.Journal of Macroeconomics, 34(3),769-787.
Bodenstein,M.,C.J.Erceg,and L.Guerrieri,(2008).Optimal monetary policy with distinct core and headline inflation rates.Journal of Monetary Economics,55,S18-33.
Bouakez,H.,N.Rebei,and D.Vencatachellum,(2008).Optimal pass-through of oil prices in an Economy with nominal rigidities.Working Paper,CIRPEE,08-31.
Calvo,G.,(1983).Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework.Journal of Monetary Economics,12(3),383-398.
Carlstrom,C.,and T.Fuerst,(1998).Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models.Working Paper,Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland,9910.
Catao,L.,and R.Chang,(2010).World food prices and monetary policy.Working Paper,International Monetary Fund,WP/10/161.
Dhawan,R.,and K.Jeske,(2007).Taylor rules with headline inflation:A bad idea.Working Paper,Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta,2007-14.
Dhawan,R.,and K.Jeske,(2008).Energy price shocks and the macroeconomy:The role of consumer durables.Journal of Money,Credit,and Banking,40(7),1357-1377.
Erceg,C.J.,Henderson,D.W.,and A.T.Levin,(2000).Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts. Journal of Monetary Economics,46,281-313.
King,R.G.,and A.L.Wolman,(1999).What should the monetary authority do when prices are sticky? In: Taylor, J.B. (Ed.),Monetary Policy Rules,University of Chicago Press, Chicago,349-404.
Montoro,C.,(2010).Oil shocks and optimal monetary policy. Working Paper,Bank for International Settlements,307.
Natal,J.-M.,(2012).Monetary policy response to oil price shocks.Journal of Money,Credit,and Banking,44,1,53-101.
Plante, M.,(2009).How should monetary policy respond to exogenous changes in the relative price of oil.Working Paper, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, 013-2009.
Rhee,H.J.,and N.Turdaliev,(2013).Optimal monetary policy in a small open economy with staggered wage and price contracts.Journal of International Money and Finance,37, 306-323.
Rotemberg,J.J.,(1982).Sticky prices in the United States. Journal of Political Economy,60,1187-1211.
Schabert,A.,(2009).Money supply, macroeconomic stability, and the implementation of interest rate targets.Journal of Macroeconomics,31,333-344.
Schmitt-Grohe,S.,and M.Uribe,(2007).Optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules.Journal of Monetary Economics,54(6),1702-1725.
Uhlig, H.,(1999).A toolkit for analyzing non-linear dynamic stochastic models easily. In: Marimon,R.,Scott,A., (Ed.),Computational Methods for the Study of Dynamic Economies.Oxford,UK:Oxford University Press,30-61.
Woodford, M.,(2003).Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy.Princeton University Press,Princeton.
World Bank,(2006).Coping With Higher Fuel Prices,Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme,323/06.
Yau, R.,and G.H. Chen,(2014).Assessing energy subsidy policies in a structural macroeconomic model.Working Paper,National Central University.
\end{description}