氣候變遷對水庫集水區入流量之衝擊評估-以石門水庫集水區為例

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研究生：	張廷暐 Ting-Wing Chang
論文名稱：	氣候變遷對水庫集水區入流量之衝擊評估-以石門水庫集水區為例 Evaluate the Climate Change Impact on the Inflows of the Shihmen Reservoir
指導教授：	李明旭 Ming-hsu Li
口試委員:
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	地球科學學院 - 水文與海洋科學研究所 Graduate Instittue of Hydrological and Oceanic Sciences
畢業學年度：	96
語文別：	中文
論文頁數：	92
中文關鍵詞：	溫室效應、氣候變遷、石門水庫、水平衡模式
外文關鍵詞：	Greenhouse effects, Shihmen reservoir, Climate change, Water balance model
相關次數：	點閱：13 下載：0
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查詢本校圖書館目錄查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統勘誤回報

由於溫室效應的增強，使得全球暖化的情況日趨嚴重，加劇了氣
候的變遷，進而使得水文循環有所改變，也帶來了水資源的衝擊，增加水資源調度上的困難。石門水庫為台灣北部地區重要的水庫，主要供應台北縣、桃園縣及新竹縣的用水，與這些地區農業的生產、工業的發展、人民的生活息息相關，尤其在水旱災害防治等均扮演重要的角色，因此，本研究針對石門水庫在氣候變遷衝擊下入流量的可能改變加以分析評估，期有助於進一步了解氣候變遷對水庫集水區的水文循環可能之影響，進而提供後續相關研究盡早提出因應對策，減緩全球暖化對台灣北部地區水資源之衝擊。
本研究首先分析石門水庫集水區的歷史水文與氣候資料來了解
研究區域氣候的特性與變化，其中四月到十月的降雨量約占全年之
57%。而降雨強度有逐年上升的趨勢，上升幅度約為0.067~0.254
mm/day；在溫度部份亦呈現逐年緩慢上升，上升速率約為0.018 ~ 0.34℃/10-yr；在石門水庫的入流量部份，年逕流比值則有逐年下降的趨勢，比值下降率約為0.009/10-yr。
在氣候變遷預設情境部分，主要採用CGCM2 與HADCM3 大氣環流模式模擬結果，再利用水平衡收支模式(GWLF Model)模擬水庫入流量的變化情形。氣候變遷預設情境包含有A2 與B2 情境在短、中、長期合計共12 種氣候變遷情境輸出結果。其中在CGCM2-A2 情
境的短期年流量有增加的情況發生，而中、長期則為年流量減少的情況；CGCM2-B2 情境的長期年流量有減少的情況發生，HADCM3 情
境之A2 與 B2 情境的短、中、長期年流量則皆有增加的情形。

The enhancement of greenhouse effect has seriously affected the earth’s climate system, especially the issue of global warming. This warming is accompanied by significant changes in the hydrological cycles which subsequently bring impacts on water resources and increase
difficulties on water resources allocations. The Shihmen Reservoir is one of the most important reservoirs in northern Taiwan. It provides water supplies to agricultural, industries, and domestics of the Taipei,
Taoyuan, and Hsinchu counties, and plays an important role of flood amd drought mitigations for these areas. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the climate change impact on the inflows of the Shihmen reservoir and the changes in hydrological cycles of the watershed. The
results can be applied for the planning of adaption and mitigation to reduce the climate change impact on water resources in northern Taiwan.
Historical hydrological and meteorological data are analyzed to reveal characteristics and possible trends of climate in Shihmen area. The amounts of rainfalls between April to October account for 57 % of annual rainfalls. The rainfall intensity has gradually increased at a rate
of 0.067~0.254 mm/day. A raise in temperature was found around 0.018~0.34 oC/10-yr. The runoff ratio has a decrease trend of0.009/10-yr.
The climate change scenarios were mainly from outputs of two global circulation models, CGCM2 and HADCM3. The reservoir inflows were simulated by a water balance model, GWLF (Generalized Watershed Loading Functions). There are a total of 12 scenario outputs, including A2 and B2 scenarios with short, mid, and long terms of
CGCM2 and HADCM3. The predicted annual inflows of short-term in CGCM2-A2 scenario are increase, while those in mid and long terms are decrease. The annual inflows of short and long terms in CGCM2-B2 scenario are also decrease. All scenarios from HADCM3 shows increase in inflows.

摘要.....................................................Ⅰ
Abstract.................................................Ⅱ
目錄.....................................................Ⅲ
圖目錄...................................................Ⅵ
表目錄...................................................Ⅹ
第一章 緒論...............................................1
1-1 研究動機............................................1
1-2 研究目的............................................3
1-3 研究流程............................................3
第二章 文獻回顧...........................................5
2-1 淡水河流域歷年相關水文分析之研究.....................5
2-2 氣候變遷情境模式與水平衡收支模式.....................7
第三章 研究區域概述.......................................9
3-1 淡水河流域簡介......................................9
3-2 淡水河流域水文與地文特性...........................13
3-3 石門水庫集水區簡介.................................14
第四章 研究方法..........................................18
4-1 氣候變遷預測情境模式................................18
4.1.1 大氣環流模式(GCM)之氣候變遷預設情境.............20
4.1.2 SRES 預設情境...................................22
IV
4.1.3 氣象資料合成模式.................................28
4-2 水平衡模式......................................... 30
4-2-1 水平衡收支模式..................................30
4-2-2 滲漏量、地下水流出量及深層滲漏量之推估...........31
4-2-3 降雨量推估......................................32
4-2-4 逕流量推估......................................32
4-2-5 蒸發散量推估....................................34
第五章 石門水庫集水區現況水文分析........................37
5-1 淡水河流域氣候與水文現況分析........................37
5.1.1 淡水河流域歷年溫度變化趨勢.......................40
5.1.2 淡水河流域歷年降雨變化趨勢.......................43
5-2 石門水庫集水區現況水文分析..........................49
5.2.1 石門水庫集水區之溫度分析.........................49
5.2.2 石門水庫集水區之降雨分析.........................53
5-3 淡水河流域河川流量..................................56
5.3.1 石門水庫集水區...................................56
5.3.2 翡翠水庫集水區...................................59
第六章 氣候變遷對石門水庫入流量之影響....................64
6.1 各氣候預設情境基線的比較...........................64
6.2 GWLF 模式檢定與驗證...............................66
6.3 CGCM2 與HADCM3 預測情境(A2 及B2 排放情境) .......69
6.4 氣候變遷之長期趨勢分析.............................75
6.5 石門水庫集水區之豐、枯水期流量變化.................79
V
第七章 結論與建議........................................84
7-1 結論...............................................84
7-2 建議...............................................85
參考文獻.................................................86
附錄.....................................................90

                                

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