台灣歷經三十多年經濟蓬勃發展，帶動了社會繁榮進步與國民生活品質提升，使得國人健康水準大幅改善。然而目前國內粗死亡率雖趨於平緩，但是尚存在些許起伏，我們推估這很有可能與整體經濟情勢有關。因此適逢台灣經濟環境險惡的時刻，關心景氣波動與國民健康之間的關聯實為一項刻不容緩的目標。據此，本研究利用民國68-93年行政院衛生署之「死亡証明登記」檔案與民國68-93年行政院主計處「台灣地區社會指標統計年報」，建構台灣地區21縣市死亡率與失業率的長期追蹤資料(panel data), 並透過「固定效果模型」(fixed effect model)分析景氣波動對國民健康產生的衝擊。
實証結果發現，在控制時間效果與各縣市的特徵變數之後(如各縣市性別比率、有偶比率、每人實質所得)，落後一期失業率的增加將會減緩意外事故、肺炎二種生理疾病死亡率。但是經濟持續蕭條，落後二期至六期平均失業率則是不利於國人健康，促使一些慢性疾病死亡率增加的現象。最後，我們亦觀察景氣波動期間民眾心理健康的狀況，結果顯示在經濟興盛的同時，繁忙的工作反而是使得國人內心壓力過大，進而選擇自殺的導火線。

Taiwan has been through repeatedly more than three decades economical vigorous development, causes the national healthy large improvement. At present, the mortality is gradually becoming stable, however there are still some existed fluctuations. We suspect that this phenomenon is closely related to the macroeconomic conditions. Motivated by this reason, we investigate the relationship between the economic fluctuation and the health of the people.
In this paper, we establish the panel data of the county’s mortality and county’s unemployment rate for the period 1979-2004, and then we use the fixed effect model to control for heterogeneity of different counties. The results show that under the control of year effects and county characteristic variables, the unemployment rate of lag one year is negatively and statistically significantly correlated with accident, suicide, and lung fatalities. Moreover, if the recessions are lasting for a long time, some chronic mortality would be increased when the average rate of joblessness at lags of two to six years increased.

參考文獻
中文文獻：
1．蔡偉德，「健康與所得－台灣地區國民死亡率與所得及所得分配之間的關聯」，台灣經濟學會年會論文集(2001)，2002年12月，頁189-217。
英文文獻：
1. Brenner, M. H. (1971), “Economic Changes and Heart Disease Mortality,” American Journal of Public Health, 61 (3), 606-11.
2. Brenner, M. H. (1979), “Mortality and the National Economy,” The Lancet, 314 (8142), 568-73.
3. Chiang, T. L. (1999), “Economic transition and changing relation between income inequality and mortality in Taiwan：regression analysis,” British Medical Jounal, 30, 1162-1165.
4. Clark, A. and Oswald, A. (1994), “Unhappiness and Unemployment,” The Economic Journal, 104, 648-659.
5. Cook, P. J. and Gary, A. Z. (1986), “Homicide and Economic Conditions: A Replication and Critique of M. Harvey Brenner’s New Report to the U.S. Congress,” Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2 (1), 69-80.
6. Gerdtham, U. G. and Ruhm, C. J. (2002), “Deaths Rise in Good Economic Times:Evidence from the OECD, ” IZA Discussion Paper, NO.654.
7. Gerdtham, U. G. and Johannesson, M. (2003), “A Note on the Effect of Unemployment on Mortality,” Journal of Health Economics, 22 (3), 505-18.
8. Gravelle, H. S., Hutchinson, E. and Stern, J. (1981), “Mortality and Unemployment: A Critique of Brenner’s Time-Series Analysis,” The Lancet, 318(8248), 675-9.
9. Green, W. H. (2003), Econometric Analysis (5th edition), New York：Macmillan.
10. Hsiao, C. (1986), Analysis of Panel Data, New York ：Cambridge University Press.
11. Laporte, A. and Ferguson, B. S. (2003), “Income inequality and mortality： time series evidence from Canada,” Health Policy, 66, 107-117.
12. Laporte, A. (2004), “Do economic cycles have a permanent effect on population health？Revisiting the Brenner hypothesis,” Health Economics, 13, 767-779.
13. Neumayer, E. (2004), “Recessions Lower (Some) Mortality Rates,” Social Science & Medicine, 58 (6), 1037-47.
14. Ruhm, C. J. (2000), “Are Recessions Good For Your Health?” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115(2), 617-50.
15. Ruhm, C. J. (2005), “Healthy Living in Hard Times,” Journal of Health Economics, 24, 341-363.
16. Snyder, S. E. and Evans, W. N. (2002), “The impact of income on mortality: Evidence from the social security notch.” Working Paper 9197. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
17. Tapia, G. J. (2004a), “Mortality and Economic Fluctuations in Sweden, 1800-1998, ” mimeo, University of Michigan.
18. Tapia, G. J. (2005), “Increasing mortality during the expansions of the US economy, 1900-1996,” International Journal of Epidemiology, 34(6), 1194-202.
19. Wagstaff, A. (1985), “Time Series Analysis of the Relationship Between Unemployment and Mortality: A Survey of Econometric Critiques and Replications of Brenner’s Studies,” Social Science and Medicine, 21(9), 985-96.
20. Winkelmann, L. and Winkelmann, R. (1998), “Why Are the Unemployed so Unhappy？Evidence from Panel Data,” Economica, 65, 1-15.
21. Willich, S. N. et al. (1994), ‘‘Weekly Variation in Acute Myocardial Infarction: Increased Monday Risk in the Working Population,’’ Circulation, 90(1), 87–93.