本研究利用分散式水文模式和土地利用改變模式，探討蘭陽溪流域地表逕流對於土地利用改變的影響。研究中整理土壤與土地利用資料，將由農委會林試所和內政部國土測繪中心申請獲得的資料，重新分類成水文模式可利用之格式。並選用1996至2008年間共20場颱風降雨事件，模擬其地表逕流，驗證此水文模式適用於蘭陽溪流域。隨後將描述人類活動而導致水稻田與建地面積逐漸增加，設計成一些不同土地利用演化的情境，並且將這些不同情境應用於颱風降雨事件和設計雨型的水文模擬中。本研究著重於土地利用改變對河川逕流歷線的影響，從不同土地利用情境的模擬結果顯示，水稻田與建地的持續發展，會使河川逕流歷線之洪峰到達時間提前與洪峰流量增加。

The impact of changing land use on surface-runoff response in Lan-Yang River catchment is studied numerically by use of a distributed hydrological model and a land-use evolution model. The spatial distribution of the soil type and the land use archived by the Taiwan Forestry Research Institute and the National Land Surveying and Mapping Center, respectively, are reformatted in raster data for the use in the hydrological model. The surface runoffs in twenty typhoon events from 1996 to 2008 are first simulated to validate the applicability of the hydrological model for Lan-Yang River catchment. Some land-use change scenarios which are designed to describe the human activities as increase in paddy and settlement areas over a period of time are adapted in simulations with precipitation of typhoon events and designed rainfall patterns. Focusing on the effect of land-use change on river hydrograph, the simulation results conclude that the increase in paddy and settlement areas will shorten the arrival time of peak flow and increase peak discharge.

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