在資訊系統快速發展與企業數位轉型的背景下，企業資源規劃系統（Enterprise Resource Planning, ERP，以下簡稱 ERP）已成為強化財務流程整合與資訊透明化的重要工具。特別在航空產業中，因其營運流程繁複、資訊系統分散，導入 ERP 系統被視為提升財務管理效率與風險控管能力的關鍵契機。然而，ERP 導入成效往往需時顯現，若無前期量化機制輔助，企業難以掌握其潛在影響與風險範圍。
本研究以中華航空為個案，探討 ERP 導入對應收帳款管理預期效益之影響，聚焦於三項關鍵財務指標：應收帳款週轉率（Accounts Receivable Turnover, ART）、應收帳款天數（Days Sales Outstanding, DSO）與營運活動現金流（Operating Cash Flow, OCF）。研究方法結合單變量時間序列預測模型（ARIMA）與三種情境模擬（樂觀、中性、悲觀），建構無 ERP 導入之財務基準趨勢，進行未來五年（2027–2031）之財務預測與比較。
研究結果顯示，在 ERP 成功導入的情境下，ART 與 DSO 指標將有明顯改善，顯示資金回收效率與週轉週期可透過系統整合與自動化作業大幅優化；而 OCF 則受外部因素干擾較大，改善幅度相對有限。整體而言，ERP 系統可作為推動企業財務敏捷化管理之契機，建議企業導入前應先建立量化預測機制，強化導入策略之可視性與風險掌握能力。

With the advancement of information systems and the trend toward digital transformation, Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems have become essential tools for integrating financial processes and enhancing information transparency. In the aviation industry, where operational procedures are complex and information systems are fragmented, ERP implementation is considered a strategic opportunity to improve financial efficiency and risk control. However, the effects of ERP implementation often take time to materialize, and without a forecasting mechanism, it is difficult for enterprises to evaluate potential impacts and risks during the early stages.

This study investigates the expected impact of ERP implementation on accounts receivable management, using China Airlines as a case study. The research focuses on three key financial indicators: Accounts Receivable Turnover (ART), Days Sales Outstanding (DSO), and Operating Cash Flow (OCF). Using a univariate time series forecasting model (ARIMA) and three scenario simulations (optimistic, neutral, pessimistic), the study constructs a baseline trend without ERP and forecasts financial outcomes for the period from 2027 to 2031.

Results indicate that successful ERP implementation can significantly improve ART and DSO, demonstrating enhanced cash collection efficiency and reduced turnover cycle due to streamlined workflows and process automation. However, improvements in OCF are relatively moderate due to external influences. Overall, ERP systems can be a catalyst for financial agility, and organizations are encouraged to establish quantitative forecasting mechanisms before implementation to strengthen decision transparency and risk awareness.

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