傳統的 Newmark 位移分析模式是用來計算空間上的山崩機率分布，並未考慮時間因素對於地震誘發山崩機率的影響。本研究的目的是結合Newmark 位移法與機率式地震危害度分析方法，建立一套考慮時間機率的地震誘發山崩危害度分析模式。主要方法則是藉由機率式地震危害度分析計算特定再現期的愛氏震度危害度，並結合Newmark 位移山崩機率模式得到該再現期下的山崩機率分布，以及特定 Newmark 位移門檻值的地震誘發山崩年超越機率。
為了探討分析模式之可行性，本研究選擇國姓地區進行測試，首先以本研究所提出之反算方法，利用集集地震誘發山崩測繪之資料進行剪力強度參數的反算，獲得區域內各地層的推估強度，用以計算集集地震時的Newmark 位移分布，並與實際誘發山崩資料迴歸建立 Newmark山崩機率模式。同時利用地震危害度分析方法計算研究區域內特定再現期的愛氏震度危害度圖，即可配合上述 Newmark 山崩機率模式獲得該再現期下的 Newmark 位移及其地震誘發山崩機率分布圖。本研究採用之地震危害度分析模式可同時考慮區域震源(採截切指數模式)以及活斷層(特徵地震模式)，並且使用本土化的愛氏震度衰減式及國外所用衰減式分別進行評估。
研究成果顯示結合機率式地震危害度分析方法與Newmark 位移法可提供傳統山崩潛感圖所無法反應的時間因素，並可進一步提供工程規劃單位及政府管理當局對於區域規劃的參考，使用者可以從不同再現期中自行選擇可以承受的風險，亦可設定一門檻值，利用地震危害度分析的成果評估其地震誘發山崩的超越機率。以實際地震誘發山崩來反算地層強度可以反應地層的差異性，有助於提升分析品質。經由比較後發現，愛氏震度衰減公式對於地震危害度分析的成果具有相當大的影響，在使用上亦須特別注意。

For a comprehensive hazard assessment of earthquake-induced landslides, it is important to consider temporal effects from regional seismicity and active faults. To include the time factor into landslide hazard analysis, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) can be utilized. In this study, we combined the results from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with the Newmark’s model to establish a procedure for producing regional probabilistic earthquake-induced landslide hazard map.
The material properties of a slope used for calculating the factor of safety and critical acceleration were back-calculated from landslide inventory. To calculate the probabilities of different levels of seismic shaking in the time interval of interest, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was conducted by using Arias intensity attenuation equation. The results were input into Newmark’s model to produce a probabilistic landslide hazard map. An example of this approach was applied to an area in central Taiwan and shows that the introduction of the time factor allows for the temporal evaluation of the earthquake-induced landslide hazard.
The proposed approach provides a temporal assessment of the earthquake-induced landslide hazard. Slope’s material properties, estimated from back-analysis, help to conduct a more objective and physical-based assessment.

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