不同半徑比和搜尋週期對最強地震圓弧雙交叉的強震預測效能之影響

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研究生：	蔡欣諺 Hsin-Yen Tsai
論文名稱：	不同半徑比和搜尋週期對最強地震圓弧雙交叉的強震預測效能之影響 The influence of different radius ratios and search periods on the strong earthquake prediction performance of the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes
指導教授：	李顯智 Hin-Chi Lei
口試委員:
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	工學院 - 土木工程學系 Department of Civil Engineering
論文出版年：	2022
畢業學年度：	110
語文別：	中文
論文頁數：	243
中文關鍵詞：	最強地震圓弧雙交叉
外文關鍵詞：	the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes
相關次數：	點閱：10 下載：0
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本研究運用李顯智博士提出的｢最強地震圓弧雙交叉｣的概念來進行強震之預測分析。本研究從台灣中央氣象局地震資料庫擷取地震目錄，分析從1986年到2016年間發生之地震並搜尋出最強地震圓弧雙交叉。
透過對最強地震圓弧交叉的不同搜尋週期dy、徑向誤差TOLRe和弧向誤差TOLde三大參數做調整，得出不同參數組合下的結果，再加入半徑比因素統計整理並進行數據分析後，便可得出各自的預測機率，再綜合以上的數據及分析來比較不同參數對於預測準確度的影響。
最後發現在保留半徑比小於1.7的雙凸交叉，其70天內的強震命中率都能達到接近60%或更高，而半徑比小於1.7的凹凸交叉，其70天內的強震命中率都在50%或略低。

We make use of the concept of the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes proposed by Hin-Chi Lei to predict strong earthquake.
The earthquake records from 1986 to 2016 taken from the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan are studied. The search period of the intersections dy , the radial precision parameter TOLRe and the circumferential precision parameter TOLde are assigned to different values in order to test the efficiency of the prediction by our theory. In addition, the radius ratio is also taken into account in our analysis.
We found that the hit rate of the prediction of the strong earthquake within 70 days can reach 60% or even higher for the strongest double convex intersections of the circular arcs of earthquakes with radius ratio smaller than 1.7 if the parameter dy is smaller than 6. For the concave convex intersections with radius ratio smaller than 1.7 the hit rate of the prediction is a bit lower than or equal to 50% if dy is smaller than 6.

摘要    i
Abstract    ii
致謝    iii
目錄    iv
圖目錄    x
表目錄    xvi
符號說明    xxiii
第一章、緒論    1
1-1 研究動機    1
1-2 研究目的與文獻回顧    1
第二章、研究方法與內容    3
2-1 地震目錄    3
2-2 地震圓弧介紹    4
2-3 地震圓弧定義    4
2-4 地震圓弧之交叉型態    6
2-5 研究範圍    7
2-6 最強地震圓弧概念及步驟    7
第三章、研究實際案例分析    8
3-1 在dy為1下，不同TOLde和TOLRe的組合所得到之結果    8
3-1-1 TOLde = 0.09, TOLRe = 0.012    8
3-1-2 TOLde = 0.09, TOLRe = 0.014    9
3-1-3 TOLde = 0.09, TOLRe = 0.016    9
3-1-4 TOLde = 0.11, TOLRe = 0.012    9
3-1-5 TOLde = 0.11, TOLRe = 0.014    9
3-1-6 TOLde = 0.11, TOLRe = 0.016    10
3-1-7 TOLde = 0.13, TOLRe = 0.012    10
3-1-8 TOLde = 0.13, TOLRe = 0.014    10
3-1-9 TOLde = 0.13, TOLRe = 0.016    10
3-1-10 TOLde = 0.15, TOLRe = 0.012    11
3-1-11 TOLde = 0.15, TOLRe = 0.014    11
3-1-12 TOLde = 0.15, TOLRe = 0.016    11
3-2    在dy為2下，不同TOLde和TOLRe的組合所得到之結果    12
3-2-1 TOLde = 0.09, TOLRe = 0.012    12
3-2-2 TOLde = 0.09, TOLRe = 0.014    12
3-2-3 TOLde = 0.09, TOLRe = 0.016    13
3-2-4 TOLde = 0.11, TOLRe = 0.012    13
3-2-5 TOLde = 0.11, TOLRe = 0.014    14
3-2-6 TOLde = 0.11, TOLRe = 0.016    14
3-2-7 TOLde = 0.13, TOLRe = 0.012    15
3-2-8 TOLde = 0.13, TOLRe = 0.014    15
3-2-9 TOLde = 0.13, TOLRe = 0.016    15
3-2-10 TOLde = 0.15, TOLRe = 0.012    16
3-2-11 TOLde = 0.15, TOLRe = 0.014    16
3-2-12 TOLde = 0.15, TOLRe = 0.016    17
3-3 在dy為3下，不同TOLde和TOLRe的組合所得到之結果    18
3-3-1 TOLde = 0.09, TOLRe = 0.012    18
3-3-2 TOLde = 0.09, TOLRe = 0.014    19
3-3-3 TOLde = 0.09, TOLRe = 0.016    20
3-3-4 TOLde = 0.11, TOLRe = 0.012    21
3-3-5 TOLde = 0.11, TOLRe = 0.014    22
3-3-6 TOLde = 0.11, TOLRe = 0.016    22
3-3-7 TOLde = 0.13, TOLRe = 0.012    23
3-3-8 TOLde = 0.13, TOLRe = 0.014    24
3-3-9 TOLde = 0.13, TOLRe = 0.016    25
3-3-10 TOLde = 0.15, TOLRe = 0.012    26
3-3-11 TOLde = 0.15, TOLRe = 0.014    27
3-3-12 TOLde = 0.15, TOLRe = 0.016    28
3-4 在dy為4下，不同TOLde和TOLRe的組合所得到之結果    29
3-4-1 TOLde = 0.09, TOLRe = 0.012    29
3-4-2 TOLde = 0.09, TOLRe = 0.014    30
3-4-3 TOLde = 0.09, TOLRe = 0.016    31
3-4-4 TOLde = 0.11, TOLRe = 0.012    32
3-4-5 TOLde = 0.11, TOLRe = 0.014    32
3-4-6 TOLde = 0.11, TOLRe = 0.016    33
3-4-7 TOLde = 0.13, TOLRe = 0.012    34
3-4-8 TOLde = 0.13, TOLRe = 0.014    35
3-4-9 TOLde = 0.13, TOLRe = 0.016    36
3-4-10 TOLde = 0.15, TOLRe = 0.012    37
3-4-11 TOLde = 0.15, TOLRe = 0.014    38
3-4-12 TOLde = 0.15, TOLRe = 0.016    38
3-5 在dy為5下，不同TOLde和TOLRe的組合所得到之結果    39
3-5-1 TOLde = 0.09, TOLRe = 0.012    39
3-5-2 TOLde = 0.09, TOLRe = 0.014    40
3-5-3 TOLde = 0.09, TOLRe = 0.016    41
3-5-4 TOLde = 0.11, TOLRe = 0.012    42
3-5-5 TOLde = 0.11, TOLRe = 0.014    43
3-5-6 TOLde = 0.11, TOLRe = 0.016    44
3-5-7 TOLde = 0.13, TOLRe = 0.012    44
3-5-8 TOLde = 0.13, TOLRe = 0.014    45
3-5-9 TOLde = 0.13, TOLRe = 0.016    46
3-5-10 TOLde = 0.15, TOLRe = 0.012    46
3-5-11 TOLde = 0.15, TOLRe = 0.014    47
3-5-12 TOLde = 0.15, TOLRe = 0.016    47
3-6 在dy為6下，不同TOLde和TOLRe的組合所得到之結果    48
3-6-1 TOLde = 0.09, TOLRe = 0.012    48
3-6-2 TOLde = 0.09, TOLRe = 0.014    48
3-6-3 TOLde = 0.09, TOLRe = 0.016    49
3-6-4 TOLde = 0.11, TOLRe = 0.012    49
3-6-5 TOLde = 0.11, TOLRe = 0.014    49
3-6-6 TOLde = 0.11, TOLRe = 0.016    50
3-6-7 TOLde = 0.13, TOLRe = 0.012    50
3-6-8 TOLde = 0.13, TOLRe = 0.014    51
3-6-9 TOLde = 0.13, TOLRe = 0.016    51
3-6-10 TOLde = 0.15, TOLRe = 0.012    52
3-6-11 TOLde = 0.15, TOLRe = 0.014    52
3-6-12 TOLde = 0.15, TOLRe = 0.016    53
第四章、研究案例統計    54
4-1 在不同搜尋週期下的強震機率統計    54
4-1-1 dy=1 70天內、35天內發生強震機率    54
4-1-2 dy=2 70天內、35天內發生強震機率    56
4-1-3 dy=3 70天內、35天內發生強震機率    58
4-1-4 dy=4 70天內、35天內發生強震機率    60
4-1-5 dy=5 70天內、35天內發生強震機率    62
4-1-6 dy=6 70天內、35天內發生強震機率    64
4-2 在不同搜尋週期下加入半徑比的強震機率統計    66
4-2-1 dy=1 70天內、35天內發生強震機率    66
4-2-2 dy=2 70天內、35天內發生強震機率    68
4-2-3 dy=3 70天內、35天內發生強震機率    70
4-2-4 dy=4 70天內、35天內發生強震機率    72
4-2-5 dy=5 70天內、35天內發生強震機率    74
4-2-6 dy=6 70天內、35天內發生強震機率    76
4-3 針對dy=3,4,5的綜合命中率統計    78
第五章、研究案例統計說明    79
5-1 最強地震圓弧交叉重複    81
5-2 各個最強地震圓弧雙交叉之半徑比統計    85
5-2-1 所有相異交叉統計    85
5-2-2 各個搜尋週期下的相異交叉分析    101
5-2-3 各個搜尋週期半徑比及dt之關聯    137
第六章、結論    148
第七章、參考文獻    150
附錄、案例圖示    152

                                

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