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研究生: 石鉦頡
CHENG-CHIEH SHIH
論文名稱: 基於WTTELSTM-GAN與Weibull Distribution預測剩餘失效時間的混合模型
A Hybrid Remaining Useful Life Prediction Model Based on WTTELSTM-GAN and Weibull Distribution
指導教授: 葉英傑
Ying-Chieh Yeh
口試委員:
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業管理研究所
Graduate Institute of Industrial Management
論文出版年: 2025
畢業學年度: 113
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 43
中文關鍵詞: 預測與健康維護預測剩餘失效時間
外文關鍵詞: Prognostics Health Management,, WTTELSTM-GAN
相關次數: 點閱:18下載:0
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  • 在工業設備持續朝自動化與智慧化發展的趨勢下,設備健康監測(PHM)與剩餘使
    用壽命(RUL)預測已成為提升工廠效率與安全性的重要工具。儘管傳統統計方法與機
    器學習模型已被廣泛應用於此類任務,然而在處理高變異性、非線性退化與資料不平衡
    問題時,常面臨準確度不足與泛化能力薄弱的挑戰。近年來,深度學習方法雖展現優異
    表現,卻普遍仰賴大量完整退化資料,且缺乏明確的解釋性與物理對應性。
    本研究針對此問題提出一套創新的資料生成與預測架構 —— WTTELSTMGAN(Wavelet-Temporal-Transformer Enhanced LSTM GAN)。本方法整合小波轉換的時
    頻解析特性、雙向 LSTM 的時序記憶能力與多頭注意力機制的特徵聚焦優勢,能有效
    模擬機械退化過程中的 RMS 演變趨勢,並補足原始資料不足所造成的學習落差。進一
    步應用於結合 Weibull Distribution 與動態閾值之預測模型中,可預測失效點與剩餘壽命,
    提升預測系統的實用性與準確性。


    In the context of continuous advancements in industry and technology, Prognostics and
    Health Management (PHM) and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction have become
    essential tools for enhancing operational efficiency and safety. Although traditional statistical
    methods and machine learning models have been widely applied to such tasks, they often
    struggle with high variability, nonlinear degradation, and imbalanced data, leading to limited
    prediction accuracy and weak generalization capabilities. In recent years, deep learning
    approaches have shown promising results, yet they typically rely on large amounts of complete
    degradation data and often lack interpretability and physical correspondence.
    To address these challenges, this study proposes an innovative data generation and
    prediction framework—WTTELSTM-GAN (Wavelet-Temporal-Transformer Enhanced LSTM
    GAN). The proposed model integrates wavelet transform for time-frequency feature extraction,
    bidirectional LSTM for temporal memory modeling, and multi-head attention for enhancing
    feature focus. This architecture effectively simulates the degradation trends of RMS sequences
    in mechanical systems and compensates for data insufficiency during model training.
    Furthermore, the generated data is incorporated into a prediction model that combines Weibull
    distribution fitting and dynamic thresholding, enabling accurate prediction of failure points and
    remaining useful life, thereby improving the practicality and reliability of the prognostic
    system.

    摘要 i Abstract ii 目錄 iii 圖目錄 v 表目錄 vi 1 第一章 研究題目 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 問題挑戰 3 1.3 研究目的 4 1.4 研究方法 4 2 第二章 文獻探討 6 2.1 預測剩餘失效時間相關研究 6 2.2 小波轉換與 GAN 應用於資料生成 8 2.3 LSTM-GAN 架構於序列資料生成之應用 8 2.4 基於自我注意的 Transformer 架構發展 8 3 第三章 研究方法 10 3.1 退化指標 11 3.2 WTTELSTM-GAN 模型設計 11 3.2.1WTTELSTM-GAN生成器(Generator) 13 3.2.2WTTELSTM-GAN判別器(Discriminator) 16 3.2.3損失函數 17 3.3 動態閾值預測機制與 RUL 推估 18 3.3.1 特徵擬合與平滑 18 3.3.2 動態閾值搜尋與失效條件 19 3.3.3預測失效點 20 4 第四章 實驗 21 4.1 原始資料 21 4.2 資料前處理 24 4.3 評估指標 25 4.4 實驗設置 26 4.5 實驗結果 28 5 第五章 結論與未來研究方向 31 參考文獻 32

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