以機器學習技術為基礎建構新生兒孕育健康狀態預測模型

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研究生：	曾瀞瑩 Ching-Ying Tseng
論文名稱：	以機器學習技術為基礎建構新生兒孕育健康狀態預測模型 Constructing a Prediction Model of Newborns’ Health Status Using Machine Learning Techniques
指導教授：	曾筱珽 Hsiao-Ting Tseng
口試委員:
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	管理學院 - 資訊管理學系 Department of Information Management
論文出版年：	2021
畢業學年度：	109
語文別：	中文
論文頁數：	86
中文關鍵詞：	機器學習、新生兒、精準健康促進
外文關鍵詞：	Machine Learning, Newborns, Precision Health Promotion
相關次數：	點閱：12 下載：0
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隨著物價上漲、薪資縮減、女性意識抬頭，現代人晚婚、不婚已成普遍的現象，養育一名小孩所費不貲，綜合以上原因，婦女生育率逐年下滑，這也導致眾多國家面臨了少子化的社會問題，正因為生育率低下，如何降低新生兒死亡率便是一項重要任務，因此，本研究希望透過個案醫院產科所提供的資料集，結合機器學習的技術來找出對於新生兒健康發展存在重要影響的特徵。
本研究共設計了兩階段的實驗，第一階段是去探討新生兒出生前的特徵對於新生兒出生當下健康狀態的影響，第二階段則是去探討新生兒出生前以及住院期間的特徵對於新生兒能否健康出院的影響，所有實驗皆使用五種分類器來建構預測模型，最後希望實驗結果能供醫護人員在新生兒護理決策上做參考，降低新生兒因健康狀態不佳而導致不良結局的情況，達到精準健康促進的目標。

It has become a common phenomenon for modern people to marry late and not to marry resulting from price hike, wages stagnation, and the awakening female consciousness.
Moreover, it costs to raise a child. Due to many reasons, the fertility rate of women has been declining year by year and this has also caused many social problems. With the low fertility rate, it is more important to control the newborns’ mortality rate. Therefore, we hope to use
machine learning techniques with the maternal and newborn datasets provided by the hospitals to find out the significant variables for newborns’ health development.
We designed a two-stage experiment. The first stage is to explore the impact of the newborns’ characteristics before birth on the health of the newborns. The second stage is to explore the characteristics of the newborn before birth and during the hospital stay for the impact of whether the newborn can be discharged healthily from the hospital. All experiments use five classifiers to construct the predictive models. In the end, we hope that the results of our study can be used as a reference for medical staff to make decisions on newborn’s care and reduce the adverse outcomes of the newborn, achieving the goal of precision health promotion.

摘要 ............................................................................................................................................. i
Abstract ....................................................................................................................................... ii
致謝 ........................................................................................................................................... iii
目錄 ........................................................................................................................................... iv
圖目錄 ...................................................................................................................................... vii
表目錄 ..................................................................................................................................... viii
第一章 緒論 ............................................................................................................................... 1
1-1 研究背景 ......................................................................................................................... 1
1-2 研究動機 ......................................................................................................................... 2
1-3 研究目的 ......................................................................................................................... 3
1-4 論文架構 ......................................................................................................................... 5
第二章 文獻探討 ....................................................................................................................... 7
2-1 新生兒健康 ..................................................................................................................... 7
2-1-1 生理特徵 ................................................................................................................... 7
2-1-2 臨床特徵 ................................................................................................................. 12
2-2 產婦健康 ....................................................................................................................... 14
2-2-1 生理特徵 ................................................................................................................. 15
2-2-2 臨床特徵 ................................................................................................................. 16
2-3 出生時間與醫院人力 ................................................................................................... 17
2-4 機器學習在臨床醫療的應用 ....................................................................................... 18
2-5 理論基礎 ....................................................................................................................... 19
第三章 研究方法 ..................................................................................................................... 21
3-1 個案醫院介紹 ............................................................................................................... 21
3-2 資料集介紹 ................................................................................................................... 22
3-3 資料前處理 ................................................................................................................... 22
3-4 機器學習技術介紹 ....................................................................................................... 29
3-4-1 羅吉斯回歸(Logistic regression ,LR) ..................................................................... 30
3-4-2 支援向量機(Support Vector Machine, SVM) ........................................................ 30
3-4-3 隨機森林(Random Forest, RF) ............................................................................... 31
3-4-4 極限梯度提升樹(eXtreme Gradient Boosting, XGBoost) ..................................... 31
3-4-5 決策樹(Decision Tree, DT) ..................................................................................... 32
3-5 實驗設計以及模型評估指標 ....................................................................................... 32
3-5-1 實驗一 ..................................................................................................................... 34
3-5-2 實驗二 ..................................................................................................................... 35
3-5-3 模型評估與驗證 ..................................................................................................... 37
3-6 倫理審查 ....................................................................................................................... 38
第四章 研究結果分析 ............................................................................................................. 39
4-1 實驗一結果 .................................................................................................................... 39
4-2 實驗二結果 .................................................................................................................... 40
4-2-1 子實驗一結果 ......................................................................................................... 46
4-2-2 子實驗二結果 ......................................................................................................... 51
4-2-3 子實驗三結果 ......................................................................................................... 59
4-2-4 綜合實驗二結果討論 ............................................................................................. 64
4-3 綜合實驗結果討論 ........................................................................................................ 65
第五章 研究結論與建議 ......................................................................................................... 67
5-1 結論 .............................................................................................................................. 67
5-2 研究限制 ...................................................................................................................... 67
5-3 未來研究方向與建議 .................................................................................................. 68
5-4 研究意涵 ...................................................................................................................... 68
參考文獻 .................................................................................................................................. 70
                                

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