本研究利用The Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS)-Mesoscal Model version5(MM5)系統探討cold-start與hot-start之初始場，對預報結果的影響。嘗試使用加入中正雷達資料之雙都卜勒雷達合成、GBVTD反演颱風結構兩種中層風場資料於LAPS中，更進一步分析模式在定量降雨上的表現。另外對舊有的垂直速度法修正與測試實驗之。藉由LAPS-MM5對各種不同中層資料的狀態與不同方法取得的垂直速度之初始條件做初步的測試，考量是否能對台灣目前的預報能力有所助益。本研究中選取艾利颱風(2004)進行個案討論。
結果發現，透過LAPS分析得到雲雨資訊、垂直速度等初始條件放入非絕熱預報模式作為初始場，在路徑、強度、水平風場、颱風雨帶與環流以及定量回波估計皆有達到改善0~6小時的預報。特別是本研究對大範圍的定時定量回波估計有很好的預報能力。
初始場的垂直速度法取得方式，經實驗發現，修正垂直速度法有達到改善颱風環流消長狀態與強度，因此建議對對流區與層狀區的垂直速度需採取不同的設定，以求初始場與模擬結果更接近真實大氣。

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