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研究生: 陳秉豪
Bing-Hao Chen
論文名稱: 在存活分析中使用擴充風險模型二分一個連續型生物指標的方法
Method to Dichotomizing a Continuous Biomarker in Univariate Survival Analysis Using an Extended Hazard Model
指導教授: 曾議寬
Yi-Kuan Tseng
口試委員:
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 理學院 - 統計研究所
Graduate Institute of Statistics
論文出版年: 2020
畢業學年度: 108
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 106
中文關鍵詞: 二分法生物指標擴充風險模型
外文關鍵詞: dichotomization, biomarker, extended hazard model
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  • 在臨床研究中,將連續的生物指標進行二分法是一個普遍的做法。二分法使得臨床醫生更容易在制定治療決策時,使用事件與生物指標之間的相關資訊。在過去的文獻中存在多種對連續生物指標進行二分法,其中最常用的兩種方法,一種是最小p值法,另一種則是以概似函數為基礎的方法。最小p值法是對一個連續生物指標的所有值進行二分法,並進行一系列檢定統計量分析後,再選擇與最大檢定統計量(或等價地,最小p值)相關的“最佳”切點。而以概似函數為基礎的方法則是將切點視為一個未知參數,並藉由概似函數值的最大值來找出最佳的切點。在風險迴歸中也可以運用前述的兩種方法來尋找生物指標的切點。方法是將生物指標透過切點區分成兩個風險組作為我們的共變量來進行風險迴歸。本文希望能夠使用EH擴充風險模型,並運用前述的最小p值法及以概似函數為基礎的方法來尋找生物指標最佳的切點。


    Dichotomizing a continuous biomarker is a common practice in clinical research.
    Dichotomizing make it easier for clinicians to use information about the relationship between an outcome and a baseline biomarker in making treatment decisions. Various methods exist in the literature for dichotomizing continuous biomarkers, of which the two most commonly used methods, one is the minimum p-value approach, and the other is likelihood-based approach. Minimum p-value approach uses a sequence of test statistics for all possible dichotomizations of a continuous biomarker, and it chooses the cutpoint that is associated with the maximum test statistic, or equivalently, the minimum p-value of the test. On the other hand, likelihood-based approach considers the cutpoint as an unknown parameter and find the best cutpoint by maximum likelihood. These two methods can be incorporated in the hazard regression by dividing the biomarkers into two groups through a cutpoint and treated as a hazard regression model. In this thesis, a semiparametric extended hazards model, which includes the Cox model and the AFT model as special cases is incorporated in the two methods to find the best cutpoint of a biomarker.

    摘要 i Abstract ii 致謝 iii 目錄 iv 第1章介紹 1 1.1研究背景 1 1.2過去文獻使用無母數方法進行二分法的研究 2 1.3過去文獻使用半母數方法進行二分法的研究 5 1.3.1 Wald檢定的最小p值法 5 1.3.2以概似函數為基礎的方法 7 1.3.3重覆抽樣方法:Permutation test 8 第2章研究目的 11 第3章統計方法 13 3.1在Cox模型下尋找最佳的切點 13 3.1.1 Wald檢定的最小p值法 14 3.1.2以概似函數為基礎的方法 14 3.2在AFT模型下尋找最佳的切點 15 3.2.1 Wald檢定的最小p值法 16 3.2.2以概似函數為基礎的方法 17 第4章模擬 18 4.1模擬臨床試驗 18 4.2定義變數 19 4.3資料生成步驟 19 4.4模擬結果 21 4.4.1 Log-logistic-Cox 22 4.4.2 Gompertz-Cox 23 4.4.3 Log-logistic-AFT 24 4.4.4 Gompertz-AFT 25 4.5模擬結論 26 第5章:實例分析 28 心臟移植 28 第6章:結論與討論 34 參考文獻 36 存活時間來自Log-logistic-Cox的模擬結果 38 表4.1 38 表4.2 40 表4.3 42 表4.4 44 存活時間來自Gompertz-Cox的模擬結果 46 表4.5 46 表4.6 48 表4.7 50 表4.8 52 存活時間來自Log-logistic-AFT的模擬結果 54 表4.9 54 表4.10 56 表4.11 58 表4.12 60 存活時間來自Gompertz-AFT的模擬結果 62 表4.13 62 表4.14 64 表4.15 66 表4.16 68 附錄 70 A.1 Cox模型的核平滑概似函數一、二階導函數 70 A.2 AFT模型的核平滑概似函數一、二階導函數 70 A.3利用Cox模型的基線風險來生成存活時間 71 A.4利用AFT模型的基線風險來生成存活時間 73 A.5 模擬資料之程式碼 75 操作介紹 75

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